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Attendance Tracker

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I think some of it is just that things are tough all over these days. I've read stories of folks not travelling this summer.
Nothing to see here. Just folks pushing off Summer Vacation until after TSL opens.

This just tells me July is gonna be crowded.

I agree with both of these assessments personally. Theme parks are less accessible than ever and regular travel is more accessible than ever. I think the bucket of potential theme park goers is smaller than it used to be. That bucket probably has a LOT of repeat visitors and they want to see the newest things. But, at the same time, the smaller the bucket gets, the more prices have to go up to keep the parks above water.
 
I agree with both of these assessments personally. Theme parks are less accessible than ever and regular travel is more accessible than ever. I think the bucket of potential theme park goers is smaller than it used to be. That bucket probably has a LOT of repeat visitors and they want to see the newest things. But, at the same time, the smaller the bucket gets, the more prices have to go up to keep the parks above water.

One would think, but since TEA is the only measurement of attendance to go by, according to that more people are going to WDW and UOR than ever as of last year.

And that's not exactly how prices work. When attendance drops, they generally have to at least make price increases slower--there's a reason SWO and BGT are generally cheaper than WDW and UOR. If WDW and UOR were struggling to stay above water, they would start cutting awesome deals out the wazoo. Unfortunately, if TEA is to be believed, they have no reason to stop jacking up prices.

I think Disneyhead hit the nail on the...well...head.
 
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(Disclaimer: I'm a millennial, as are my friends)

Whenever I see Orlando vacation pics of my friends on Facebook, 9/10 times it's Universal. Why? Potter.

I don't know where my friends were staying. I think that's part of a bigger trend of vacationing. People don't care about their hotels anymore. Hotels are a means to an end. People, including myself, would stay in a random person's spare bedroom if it meant a cheaper trip.

You’re 25. You don’t care about hotels now. There are plenty that do, and typically when they have more expendable cash. While people may not post about them, they aren’t going away. If you think the Epcot hotel or Star Wars hotel will be hurting for attendance, you’re wrong. And if you think either will cannibalize beach club or boardwalk, you’re also wrong. There’s a reason a four seasons was just built.
There is a demand.

Me, for example, values on-site. I’ve done an all star once. Never again. Way too school cafeteria and cheap. I do deluxes only (thanks to DVC). I’d rather go 1/2 as many times and stay at a nicer place.
Same with UOR. Stayed at sapphire and loved it, But never again. Only one of the deluxes for me because I value EP too much. Again, I’d rather go 1/2 as many times and stay at a nicer place.
And crashing at a friends house with my 2 kids and wife, driving and parking at parks and driving back home sounds like a whip to me. Again, I’d rather go higher end 1/2 the time than on the cheap twice as much.

You might not be the supply at your age, or ever, honestly. And more power to you. Having the “all I need is a bed” approach will save you untold amounts of money in your life. But for every 50 of you, all they need is 1 of me and they’ll make their nut.

One would think, but since TEA is the only measurement of attendance to go by, according to that more people are going to WDW and UOR than ever as of last year.

And that's not exactly how prices work. When attendance drops, they generally have to at least make price increases slower--there's a reason SWO and BGT are generally cheaper than WDW and UOR. If WDW and UOR were struggling to stay above water, they would start cutting awesome deals out the wazoo. Unfortunately, if TEA is to be believed, they have no reason to stop jacking up prices.

I think Disneyhead hit the nail on the...well...head.
The TEA hate is dumb and very immature. It’s as close to the truth as we’ll get and it’s accurate enough. Anyone who disagrees with that, well- just insert the akkktually meme, because that’s who they are.

Universal (much like Mac OS vs windows) has always seemed to gain “market share”. Anytime you’re only 20% of the market (vs Disney), you will likely gain share of percentage, although usually not higher total numbers (as they both grow). But when UPR opens theme park 3, it’ll actually be of significant impact finally. And that’s where the numbers are going to get really interesting.
 
A couple of interesting anecdotes this week:

From @DCLBlog (the source for Disney Cruise info):
Average May passenger numbers for the Dream are down, the lowest May numbers since I started tracking them in 2014. May ‘17 to ‘18 had a drop of ~100 pax. Similar downward trend for the Fantasy if you ignore last May’s post dry dock decrease and compare May ‘16 to ‘18.

Also, heard from a well-known WDW performer that May was unusually soft. Some of the smallest crowds he's played to--under two dozen on a Wednesday night, when he typically plays to a full house.

Not sure what to make of it, but add it to the lifting of blackouts in June as signs of a trend.
 
A couple of interesting anecdotes this week:

From @DCLBlog (the source for Disney Cruise info):
Average May passenger numbers for the Dream are down, the lowest May numbers since I started tracking them in 2014. May ‘17 to ‘18 had a drop of ~100 pax. Similar downward trend for the Fantasy if you ignore last May’s post dry dock decrease and compare May ‘16 to ‘18.

Also, heard from a well-known WDW performer that May was unusually soft. Some of the smallest crowds he's played to--under two dozen on a Wednesday night, when he typically plays to a full house.

Not sure what to make of it, but add it to the lifting of blackouts in June as signs of a trend.

It's just not been a great year for Orlando. Universal is also seeing soft numbers. Guest spending hasn't fallen off a cliff, so nothing to be too scared of yet.

But. That makes 2019 additions bringing in their projections all the more critical.
 
It's just not been a great year for Orlando. Universal is also seeing soft numbers. Guest spending hasn't fallen off a cliff, so nothing to be too scared of yet.

But. That makes 2019 additions bringing in their projections all the more critical.

Like I said previously, the odd year additions as of late are looking much better than the even year additions. Attendance went up last year after dropping slightly the year before. Just sayin’.
 
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A couple of interesting anecdotes this week:

From @DCLBlog (the source for Disney Cruise info):
Average May passenger numbers for the Dream are down, the lowest May numbers since I started tracking them in 2014. May ‘17 to ‘18 had a drop of ~100 pax. Similar downward trend for the Fantasy if you ignore last May’s post dry dock decrease and compare May ‘16 to ‘18.

Also, heard from a well-known WDW performer that May was unusually soft. Some of the smallest crowds he's played to--under two dozen on a Wednesday night, when he typically plays to a full house.

Not sure what to make of it, but add it to the lifting of blackouts in June as signs of a trend.
A few friends of mine are making the jump to Royal Carribean, simply for cost sake...Obviously one doesn't speak for everyone, but I found it interesting

Also, I really think Fall is becoming more lucrative for theme parks and summer is losing its spot as "most attended "
 
A few friends of mine are making the jump to Royal Carribean, simply for cost sake...Obviously one doesn't speak for everyone, but I found it interesting

Also, I really think Fall is becoming more lucrative for theme parks and summer is losing its spot as "most attended "

Between all the special events happening in the fall, the tiered pricing structures and how hot it is during summer, it makes perfect sense.
 
Disney does yearly and quarterly reports though, correct?
Sure, but you get "increase" or "decrease"...Honestly, if one more person came than last year (heck even 1000), that's technically an increase in attendance...But not sufficient enough to move the needle...It's all a revenue game in those reports
 
I think tiered pricing is working.

I also think the Fall for Universal and the Holidays for Disney have become peak season for them.
Same here, I think Universal is getting into the Christmas game, and I think it is going well for them...Mardi Gras also seems to be successful

I honestly don't think anything is wrong with the parks themselves...Summer is just too dang hot and miserable
 
Same here, I think Universal is getting into the Christmas game, and I think it is going well for them...Mardi Gras also seems to be successful

I honestly don't think anything is wrong with the parks themselves...Summer is just too dang hot and miserable
Short of having to vacation because of kids in school, why anyone would want to be in Florida during the summer escapes me.