Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[Paulio]

I assume Comcast exec's are crunching all the numbers on Disney's bid and what a comparable bid would look like.

Most likely, they're going to consider whether to add stock or not, and that's the main question. If Comcast ups stock to at least 30-40% of their bid, I think they can win this bidding war.

Otherwise, I think Disney wins.

Wait until five more days though, but I really thought the same as you did. I don't think Comcast has enough time to convince Fox shareholders how they're a better offer than Disney since the DOJ is trying to speed up the approval of the Disney/Fox deal in response to the integration of AT&T-Time Warner merger. It seems like Comcast is trying to make a counter-bid as less than five days, as they're running out of time, but I'm not entirely convinced Fox will change their mind about its existing deal with Disney.

 

[JungleSkip]

For the sake of WDW & DLR expansion, I truly hope that Disney doesn’t get this. We all know Disney will cut funding to P&R if they have to take on massive debt.

Same reason I don’t want Comcast to win. Is this the first time we’re rooting against our preferred destinations?

 

[Disneyhead]

I bet Comcast's next bid is intentionally not impressive. I think they may be just intentionally driving up the price to load Disney down with debt.

 

[Paulio]

I bet Comcast's next bid is intentionally not impressive. I think they may be just intentionally driving up the price to load Disney down with debt.

Nah, Comcast is trying to become the next "Disney" of the century. Off course they want Fox just as badly as Disney.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Nah, Comcast is trying to become the next "Disney" of the century. Off course they want Fox just as badly as Disney.

I actually agree with Dave.

I think if they counter, it'll be lower than some expect. But that it'd be a way for TWDC to fall into a larger grave of debt.

If they lose, they can at-least try to pull the carpet from Disney.

 

[Moose84]

I bet Comcast's next bid is intentionally not impressive. I think they may be just intentionally driving up the price to load Disney down with debt.

Not a bad thought at all. I do believe Comcast does want the fox assets but at a specific price. They probably had it in there mind either we get the fox assets at this price or we make sure disney struggles with debt by the end of this. If Comcast counters with let’s say 75to77 billion, Disney will at least match the offer or possibly push 80. Either way Comcast just cost disney 25billion. Now disney will be looking to balance the book with massive debt while Comcast can use this stagnant period to push the resorts expansions becoming a more direct competitor. Disney looks great as a company but the one thing Comcast has at its disposal is its internet and cable division which amounts to garunteed revenue, Disney has nothing of a garuntee on this level. I know chord cutting is a concern but internet is going nowhere. You can cut cable but you still need internet to stream video service don’t forget. Just a thought though but if this purchase hits 80 + I believe there will be no true winner.

 

[Mad Dog]

Not a bad thought at all. I do believe Comcast does want the fox assets but at a specific price. They probably had it in there mind either we get the fox assets at this price or we make sure disney struggles with debt by the end of this. If Comcast counters with let’s say 75to77 billion, Disney will at least match the offer or possibly push 80. Either way Comcast just cost disney 25billion. Now disney will be looking to balance the book with massive debt while Comcast can use this stagnant period to push the resorts expansions becoming a more direct competitor. Disney looks great as a company but the one thing Comcast has at its disposal is its internet and cable division which amounts to garunteed revenue, Disney has nothing of a garuntee on this level. I know chord cutting is a concern but internet is going nowhere. You can cut cable but you still need internet to stream video service don’t forget. Just a thought though but if this purchase hits 80 + I believe there will be no true winner.

Yeah, Cable subscribers have been down a bit, but that's been more than offset by significant internet subscribers increases. Comcast has an advantageous cash flow situation.

 

[quinnmac000]

Yea this deal is going to levels of Time Warner without the great stuff Time Warner has internationally

 

[zg44]

The amount of cash on the table is what matters.

If Comcast raises its bid by adding stock, that won't have any major impact on its balance sheet.

We just have to wait and see. I do think Comcast should limit its total debt to around $170 billion.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

The amount of cash on the table is what matters.

If Comcast raises its bid by adding stock, that won't have any major impact on its balance sheet.

We just have to wait and see. I do think Comcast should limit its total debt to around $170 billion.

Mentally noted.

 

[Nick]

Same reason I don’t want Comcast to win. Is this the first time we’re rooting against our preferred destinations?

Thing is, I don’t get the sense that Comcast would stop investing in the parks. At least history doesn’t suggest this yet. Disney has a track record anytime they want to justify anything to Wall Street of just cutting theme park funding.

 

[Mad Dog]

Thing is, I don’t get the sense that Comcast would stop investing in the parks. At least history doesn’t suggest this yet. Disney has a track record anytime they want to justify anything to Wall Street of just cutting theme park funding.

I agree with that assessment.

 

[quinnmac000]

Thing is, I don’t get the sense that Comcast would stop investing in the parks. At least history doesn’t suggest this yet. Disney has a track record anytime they want to justify anything to Wall Street of just cutting theme park funding.

I concur....why have the parks which has been a consistent positive ROI be the ones to suffer cuts when there is more money that can be leveraged on the Comcast side.

 

[jtsalien]

Thing is, I don’t get the sense that Comcast would stop investing in the parks. At least history doesn’t suggest this yet. Disney has a track record anytime they want to justify anything to Wall Street of just cutting theme park funding.

Well that's partly because we haven't really gone through any lean years with the parks under Comcast. This is the first year without growth, and even then things are pretty flat. So the budget trimming is just coming from the operating budgets, and not really affecting the future yet.

You can bet that if things got tight for Comcast in other areas, or this purchase didn't meet its goals, new projects would be the first to go. Disney doesn't cut them cuz they hate the parks. They do it cuz it's easy and painless for everyone but theme park fans.

 

[Paulio]

Comcast could up ante for Fox as high as $75B, analysts say

Originally, it was thought to be $80B, but many analysts said the only best possible bid that Comcast could have done is to go up as high as $75B. I'm not sure that's enough money to get Fox on Comcast's side, let alone the fact Comcast lost a crapload of money while trying to bid for Fox, plus Fox's leadership seems to have side with Disney all the way.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Comcast could up ante for Fox as high as $75B, analysts say

Originally, it was thought to be $80B, but many analysts said the only best possible bid that Comcast could have done is to go up as high as $75B. I'm not sure that's enough money to get Fox on Comcast's side, let alone the fact Comcast lost a crapload of money while trying to bid for Fox, plus Fox's leadership seems to have side with Disney all the way.

Then it's just as I thought, they're doing a low bid.

I fully have the belief now that if Comcast loses, they are going to ensure that Disney's debt gets much larger than it is now, as I can easily see Disney counter that.

 

[LJGonz]

From some people I’m hearing “Comcast has this deal in the bag” others are saying “Disney has a way better chance and Comcast can’t win them over.” I’m hearing 2 sides and each side is sure they will win. WHO IS RIGHT HERE?!

 

[Scott W.]

I bet Comcast's next bid is intentionally not impressive. I think they may be just intentionally driving up the price to load Disney down with debt.

The old Dave Hester technique.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

From some people I’m hearing “Comcast has this deal in the bag” others are saying “Disney has a way better chance and Comcast can’t win them over.” I’m hearing 2 sides and each side is sure they will win. WHO IS RIGHT HERE?!

It’s all changing and evolving day by day.

 

[Orlandofan12]

I bet Comcast's next bid is intentionally not impressive. I think they may be just intentionally driving up the price to load Disney down with debt.

If it's true that DOJ is close to approving the Disney deal, Comcast's next bid will have to be substantially higher, otherwise Fox management will have a great case to argue that Disney's current bid is still superior.