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The FOX Acquisition Thread (Updated June 12)

Discussion in 'Games, Movies & Sports' started by AlexanderMBush, Nov 6, 2017.

  1. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Premium Member

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    Comcast stock has generally dropped whenever possibilities of buying Fox have popped up. Nothing new there with that drop.
     
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  2. Paulio

    Paulio Member

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    Let's all note that the industry is changing though, especially with the rise of Netflix, Amazon Studios, and other streaming services. There's nothing inherently wrong with this merger and it's hard to prove antitrust violations through speculative vertical merger theories. For all we know this could create market efficiencies. With this ruling, Comcast officially has the money to go after Fox, and it seems to have Disney cornered as a result.
     
  3. Andysol

    Andysol Veteran Member

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    Yup- we could see the old reign giants struggling to stay afloat with the new tech giants. Especially NBCU. Theme parks are both NBCU and Disney’s great diversifier. And they might need to rely on those more than ever (again, namely NBCU)

    In related news- the new HBO Show “Succession” is damn good.
     
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  4. zg44

    zg44 Member

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    Yeah, I think in the next 15-20 years we could see the cable/pay tv bundle completely break apart.

    Right now the only thing holding the current tv model together is live sports rights and news (broadcast/cable news). That's it..., but what happens if tech companies start bidding on live sports?

    Most millennial already prefer to watch content on-demand rather than on the current tv calendar. As the millennials become the main tv viewership, there's just no way the current tv model can survive.

    That's why the Murdochs are selling; they only want to own news and sports; the "New Fox" will just be Fox News, Fox Broadcasting (which will mostly be live fare), Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, and BTN.
     
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  5. Teebin

    Teebin Legendary Member

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    Thanks. I had been wondering about it as they play promos for it in front of every HBO show I watch.
     
  6. jtsalien

    jtsalien Hello. I'm the Doctor. Basically, run. Premium Member

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    Wall Street doesn't want Comcast to further leverage itself right now.
     
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  7. Paulio

    Paulio Member

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    I was wondering, does Disney still owns the theme park rights to the Alien franchise? They haven't use them to some extent after they close down the Great Movie Ride last year, especially as a full-theme park attraction 15 years ago at WDW. Alien could have been a good potential for Universal either as a ride or as a HHN maze should Comcast succeed in acquiring Fox.
     
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  8. quinnmac000

    quinnmac000 Veteran Member

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    For some reason for Comcast, everytime they go to buy something, Wall street complains....then is happy at the results. Same thing happened with NBCU and Dreamworks.
     
  9. zg44

    zg44 Member

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    Wall Street doesn't have any way to pressure Roberts though so it's not that big of a deal. He controls 33% of vote and it's written into the charter that as long as he's healthy/willing/able then he's Chairman and CEO.
     
  10. quinnmac000

    quinnmac000 Veteran Member

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    Thinking about synergy, one of the big things people have to look at is where do things fit into the overall scope. As much as we talk about Hulu and Sky, there still is the fact in how the film/tv shop IPs will be leveraged. Upon further analysis, I have observed how NBCU and Disney may leverage some of these IPs as well as why.

    Fox's history has been built upon producing award winning dramas in film and television, cult films and tv shows, and the largest lineup of movie musicals of all the studios. Prior to the buyout by Newscorp, they produced shows and distributed films for ABC (owned by Disney), CBS, and on occasion NBC. Some of their most successful properties include Die Hard, Black Mirror (under Edenmol Shine) Home Alone, Miracle on 34th Street, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Firefly, Modern Family, The Simpsons, and their collection of Rodger and Hammerstein films they own the rights to.

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    NBCU: Overall for content leverage, the biggest win content wise for NBCU in regards to the potential Fox buyout will be obtaining rights to things they can leverage for the Dark Universe such as the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, X-files, Black Mirror, Rocky Horror Picture Show, and Buffy the Vampire Slayer as well as filling gaps in alternative programming that Focus Features/Universal Pictures has not been able to penetrate (sci-fi and adventure films).

    Currently, NBCU is trying to increase animation output and currently lacks all adult animation (Archer, Simpsons, American Dad, Futurama, Brickleberry, Bob's Burgers). Sony, Fox, and WB currently have access to this gap with shows on comedy central, cartoon network, adult swim and other network channels with massive success. Additionally Fox winning quite a few bids on upcoming children book franchises (they have 14 animated features based on books and children IPs coming out here soon) will be a game changer for any company who obtains them. Though many people believe Universal will divest of Blue Sky and Fox Animation, I believe they will keep both (restructure so Blue Sky is a subsidiary of Fox Animation) and have them work independently as they are the producers of those adult shows and to maintain rights to continue to develop those animated franchises they recently gained access to.

    Focus and Fox Searchlight will both remain as indie/arthouse studios with a focus to create unique stories. Focus will focus on stories developed and told in the UK as they currently operate and Fox Searchlight will remain focused on the US with similiar stipulations but essentially doubling the content output.

    In terms of television, 20 Century Television and Endemol Shine likely will be absorbed into Universal Television, Universal Cable Productions, and Universal Alternative Studios. There is already so much overlap that it doesn't make sense to keep these independent outfits. Endemol Shine will be strongly leveraged by Universal Alternative Television Studios and UCP for their strength in creating popular reality shows as well as their independent production companies who have produced shows like Black Mirror, Big Brother, and Wipeout. Endemol also has an active gaming division focusing on strictly mobile games development which can be leveraged by Universal Branded Entertainment. Universal Television will probably maintain or try to continue push out the level of comedies Fox puts out to put onto Hulu as well as utilize their Star IPs to potential open Hulu in new regions as its only currently available in the United States and Japan (Of note Japan Hulu literally has everything from Game of Thrones all the way to every episode of Family Matters). The reality shows will be used for the Hayu app which is currently doing better than expected in other countries.

    Lastly, in terms of 20th Century Fox Films being independent or merging with Universal Pictures, this is where things get harder. Mainly due to certain rights reverting back to another company if certain things happen. If 20 Century Fox is no longer a parent company or independently operated, essentially all of the X-men/Marvel rights currently being produced and distributed by Fox go back to Marvel. Universal still has some production/distribution rights for Namor (who is tied to Deadpool if you read the comics) and sole distribution Hulk rights. If Xmen, F4, and related IPs all returned to Marvel, that would drastically reduce the value of Fox in terms of distribution. However, with them operating seperately and independently, it causes complication with the release dates and cycle as you don't want one blockbuster from one studio you own to cannibalize another blockbuster. To mitigate that, we may see a change in genre focus for either studio with Universal Studios maybe going back to their roots and focusing on pushing Horror, action, and comedic films while Fox may be used mainly for musicals, sci-fi, and dramatic films.
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    Disney: In terms of content the biggest win for Disney will likely be all the adult fare that they currently lack which they gain by Fox ownership. Fox Searchlight and the shows produced by FX will be the ones that are leveraged the most to give them a more robust streaming service than what they currently have. In addition the film rights to the musicals, such as 9 to 5, Working Girl, Sound of Music, and the Rodger and Hammerstein library is something Disney has wanted to leverage in the past for their theatrical division.

    WDAS and Pixar have a level of respect that unfortunately will be hurt by owning Blue Sky and Fox Animation. At the same time, Disney require those same assets as Universal mainly as it provides them that adult content but Fox Animation currently lacks any level of respect within the animation community nor has ever been recognized as quality which hurts.

    In terms of television, this will be the real winner for Disney. With their already built in market for pushing out franchises, Disney can easily reveal cult favorites such as Firefly and Buffy with maximum success massively increasing their valuable IP franchise numbers. They also would very much utilize Fox produced comedies they already distribute for syndication and oversea sales which they don't currently get a dime of. It will also bolster their reality tv offerings so they will no longer require to air the problematic bachelor tv shows that clash harshly with their Disney image.

    Lastly, I'm going to assume unlike Universal, Disney will fully absorb Fox and have it act as Touchstone. They would not face the same problems as Universal as they already own Marvel and it would work to their benefit not to cannabilize their own films. As stated they don't carry adult fare and this gives them a major studio to do just that.
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    Disney synergy is a lot easier to see as it lacks a lot of content that Fox provides, however NBCU has the infrastructure that is enhanced by the content Fox creates. One feels the gap while the other gets made better.
     
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  11. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Premium Member

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    Generally, companies where speculation indicates that they are doing the acquiring in purchases suffer early slight losses in their stock prices while the acquired companies receive a boost. That's usually a reaction to adding debt. Nothing to be concerned about since it's pretty basic market reactions.
     
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  12. JoeCamel

    JoeCamel Premium Member

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    Totally agree
    In addition, a day does not a trend make
     
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  13. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Premium Member

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    CNBC is presently reporting that it's sources indicate a Comcast bid for Fox assets later today.
     
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  14. Paulio

    Paulio Member

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    The X-Men rights contracts only with the 20th Century Fox studio and only regardless of any parent company. As long it exists as its own entity, it will still retain the X-Men Marvel rights. 20th Century Fox merging with Universal Pictures would be a complete disaster not just losing the Marvel rights, but destroys 83 years worth of Fox's history and pissing off the audience, fans, and critics. Basically, having most of 20 Century Fox's related assets be part of NBCUniversal's division, with Fox still distributing the movies instead would help resolve the matter.
     
  15. Disneyhead

    Disneyhead Veteran Member

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  16. AlexanderMBush

    AlexanderMBush Veteran Member

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  17. Paulio

    Paulio Member

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  18. AlexanderMBush

    AlexanderMBush Veteran Member

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    The only way I can see Disney do it, is if they go crazy and bid higher.

    I have to hope that Time Warner won't jump in, considering how they just got approved of their Merger, so this may be Comcast's for the taking.
     
  19. Paulio

    Paulio Member

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    And go into further debt like Comcast is willing to shoulder? I doubt it. And no, Time Warner isn't going to jump into the matter, they just got done in a fight to merge with AT&T on trial and won. They have no time to bid for another major asset at the moment.
     
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  20. Disneyhead

    Disneyhead Veteran Member

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    Comcast's bid also includes
    *Assumption of Debt
    *2.5B Guarantee if the deal is blocked by regulators
    *1.525B for Disney if FOX goes with Comcast.
     

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