Lightyear (Pixar)

[Clive]

Minions is the movie to watch. If that film performs great, the narrative will be that Lightyear's premise was too confusing and limiting. If Minions underperforms, that will lend real credence to the theories of shrinking family theatrical market and changing consumer consumption habits.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

The good news is it outpaced The Good Dinosaur's opening, placing it around Coco. But I do agree with what Clive is saying too.

 

[Nico]

Bringing kids to a movie, while a cool experience, is just a lot of work. Bathroom breaks, fears, the dark, expensive snacks. All are alleviated or better dealt with at home. Plus, we’re getting a generation of parents who are comfortable/used to streaming.

 

[Nick]

Bringing kids to a movie, while a cool experience, is just a lot of work. Bathroom breaks, fears, the dark, expensive snacks. All are alleviated or better dealt with at home. Plus, we’re getting a generation of parents who are comfortable/used to streaming.

And when you know the movie will be on Disney+ before the end of Summer, it's easy to wait unless it a.) Looks like a must see now water cooler movie or b.) A movie that looks like it needs to be seen in theaters. Lightyear is neither.

Top Gun: Maverick is currently the must see now water cooler movie imo. It had an absurdly low 15% drop this weekend. It's a movie that's effecting movies releasing right now in a type of way that couldn't have been possibly predictable prior to its release.

 

[shiekra38]

Like I said, it's one of those weird Disney sequels you'd see in a discount bin at your local grocery, that happened to get a theatrical release

 

[Viator]

Wonder with the budget and how this film's BO is leaning, if Disney may decide to dramatically reduce budgets for WDA/Pixar on the theatrical front?

DWA and Illumination are on budgets below 100M. Why can't Disney and Pixar?

 

[Jerroddragon]

Wonder with the budget and how this film's BO is leaning, if Disney may decide to dramatically reduce budgets for WDA/Pixar on the theatrical front?

DWA and Illumination are on budgets below 100M. Why can't Disney and Pixar?

I hope not

it’s literally one movie
Encanto has more than paid for its self in less than a year

 

[Nick]

Wonder with the budget and how this film's BO is leaning, if Disney may decide to dramatically reduce budgets for WDA/Pixar on the theatrical front?

DWA and Illumination are on budgets below 100M. Why can't Disney and Pixar?

Encanto was closer to $100M than not (~$125M). Supposedly lightyear was at $200M for budget before marketing.

I know projections for this were higher, but it should be noted that the $50M opening for Lightyear is the highest animated opening since pre-pandemic. It's obviously not the highest grossing animated movie overall in the post-pandemic era (and it may well never grab that title), but my point still stands as far as opening weekends go.

I grant you if you count Sonic 2, then that doesn't hold up (as Sonic 2 brought in $72M), but that's a a Live Action-CGI hybrid. I wouldn't count Chip n Dale: Rescue Rangers as an animated film, either. I consider hybrid films like that to be films that utilize both mediums, but cannot be classified strictly as one or the other. Sonic also came out at a time when theaters were looking for anything new to put in theaters and were still relying partly on No Way Home. Right now, the theatrical market is flooded with four quadrant films. You can take pretty much anyone in your family to see Jurassic World or Top Gun.

 

[SeventyOne]

Bringing kids to a movie, while a cool experience, is just a lot of work. Bathroom breaks, fears, the dark, expensive snacks. All are alleviated or better dealt with at home. Plus, we’re getting a generation of parents who are comfortable/used to streaming.

Someone forgot to tell Spidey and Sonic and Dr. Grant this.

No one seems to want to address the elephant in the room: Post-Lassiter Pixar is about as successful as post-Walt Disney. Onward was on track to underperform, until the pandemic gave it a fig leaf. But neither it nor Luca nor Soul nor Red seemed to move a whole lot of merch, and none could match Moana or Encanto in becoming a D+ powerhouse, even when most of the country was stuck at home. I agree there are other factors at work with Lightyear, but in the end it's looking like the fifth film in a row to underperform (by Pixar's admittedly ridiculously high standards).

 

[Nico]

Someone forgot to tell Spidey and Sonic and Dr. Grant this.

No one seems to want to address the elephant in the room: Post-Lassiter Pixar is about as successful as post-Walt Disney. Onward was on track to underperform, until the pandemic gave it a fig leaf. But neither it nor Luca nor Soul nor Red seemed to move a whole lot of merch, and none could match Moana or Encanto in becoming a D+ powerhouse, even when most of the country was stuck at home. I agree there are other factors at work with Lightyear, but in the end it's looking like the fifth film in a row to underperform (by Pixar's admittedly ridiculously high standards).

Spider-Man and JW (cause all kids are dying to see Dr. Grant) are definitely not considered kids movies. Yes Toy Story has cross market appeal, but definitely not the same as live action Marvel or Jurassic franchises. I do think TS 4 left a bad taste in some peoples mouths. Sonic 2 was released when studios had nothing as theaters were coming back. The true test is Minions.

Disney has treated Pixar as lesser since Lasseter was let go. Pandemic did not help. I still believe their release strategy needs an overhaul, but I fear as others have posted, Disney will again take the short-sighted solution and cut budgets.

 

[Brian G.]

Spider-Man and JW (cause all kids are dying to see Dr. Grant) are definitely not considered kids movies. Yes Toy Story has cross market appeal, but definitely not the same as live action Marvel or Jurassic franchises. I do think TS 4 left a bad taste in some peoples mouths. Sonic 2 was released when studios had nothing as theaters were coming back. The true test is Minions.

Disney has treated Pixar as lesser since Lasseter was let go. Pandemic did not help. I still believe their release strategy needs an overhaul, but I fear as others have posted, Disney will again take the short-sighted solution and cut budgets.

Just because they are not outright kid films does not mean there isn't kid appeal. Just look at any toy department aisle.

 

[Nico]

Just because they are not outright kid films does not mean there isn't kid appeal. Just look at any toy department aisle.

Yup I understand that. But if I have to decide between taking my kids to Lightyear, or letting them watch it at home in a month a half, I’m choosing the second one for the reasons in my original post.

Edit: I think we should also define “kids.” Im specifically referencing Toddler -7yo based on needs at the theaters.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Just because they are not outright kid films does not mean there isn't kid appeal. Just look at any toy department aisle.

It also helps that both have shows on Disney+ and Netflix that are aimed squarely at kids who may have then wanted to see the new movie.

Someone forgot to tell Spidey and Sonic and Dr. Grant this.

No one seems to want to address the elephant in the room: Post-Lassiter Pixar is about as successful as post-Walt Disney. Onward was on track to underperform, until the pandemic gave it a fig leaf. But neither it nor Luca nor Soul nor Red seemed to move a whole lot of merch, and none could match Moana or Encanto in becoming a D+ powerhouse, even when most of the country was stuck at home. I agree there are other factors at work with Lightyear, but in the end it's looking like the fifth film in a row to underperform (by Pixar's admittedly ridiculously high standards).

Turning Red was actually a huge merchandising beast when I visited Disneyland just recently. I saw tons of kids, teens, and young adults buying up the red panda hats and plush figures.

The movie I didn’t see sell a lot of product? Encanto…

 

[Jerroddragon]

Someone forgot to tell Spidey and Sonic and Dr. Grant this.

No one seems to want to address the elephant in the room: Post-Lassiter Pixar is about as successful as post-Walt Disney. Onward was on track to underperform, until the pandemic gave it a fig leaf. But neither it nor Luca nor Soul nor Red seemed to move a whole lot of merch, and none could match Moana or Encanto in becoming a D+ powerhouse, even when most of the country was stuck at home. I agree there are other factors at work with Lightyear, but in the end it's looking like the fifth film in a row to underperform (by Pixar's admittedly ridiculously high standards).

I mean, merch right I agree

But I think Soul and Luca would have done pretty well in theaters if Covid wasn't a thing. Both were well liked

While yes since he left Pixar hasn't been at the top of its game, part of it is Disney forcing sequels and spin offs, Monsters U (even if I like this film doesnt match the quality of Pixar), incredibles 2 (did amazing money wise but is no where as loved as the first)

Luca, Turning Red and Soul seem to be liked by many people and even if I dont like Onward some people with different relationsships with family seem to like it. I think Pixar used to be more general about its themes but now allows Directors to try new things and sometimes they work like Turning Red and sometimes they dont

 

[Legacy]

Or, you know, the premise wasn’t that interesting.

“Do people just not want to watch a convoluted, uninteresting, obvious cash-grab nobody asked for?”

“No. No. It’s the distribution method that’s wrong.”

 

[Nick]

Someone forgot to tell Spidey and Sonic and Dr. Grant this.

No one seems to want to address the elephant in the room: Post-Lassiter Pixar is about as successful as post-Walt Disney. Onward was on track to underperform, until the pandemic gave it a fig leaf. But neither it nor Luca nor Soul nor Red seemed to move a whole lot of merch, and none could match Moana or Encanto in becoming a D+ powerhouse, even when most of the country was stuck at home. I agree there are other factors at work with Lightyear, but in the end it's looking like the fifth film in a row to underperform (by Pixar's admittedly ridiculously high standards).

RT critic/audience split of last three D+ films:

Soul - 95/88
Luca - 91/85
Turning Red - 94/72

I’ll give you Turning Red (even if many people review bombed it), but all three were original films, and all had critic scores in the 90’s. Also, it’s very clear none of these were made to sell merch or to have potential sequels.

I just don’t see how they are all that much of disappointments. Soul also made $120M from about 10 countries it released when most theaters were closed worldwide. There’s no way to say for sure that Soul wouldn’t have been a box office hit in a normal theatrical market.

 

[Jerroddragon]

 

[Tobias]

With the 2nd weekend, Lightyear had a 65% drop, ending up in 5th this week at the box office. It could end up being one of Pixar's lowest grossing films if it keeps up this rate.

‘Elvis’ & ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ In Dead Heat For No. 1 With $30.5M – Sunday AM Box Office

I'll also say I'm still not buying the idea that families just aren't going to theaters anymore, since in comparison The Bad Guys opened #1 and repeated in its 2nd weekend with only a 32% drop. And for the 3rd weekend when Doctor Strange came out, it merely dropped to second and held that for its 3rd and 4th weekend. If families weren't showing up, it would've just dropped like a rock. But it stayed up there.

Soul, Luca and Turning Red could've very well done just fine in theaters. Heck, Turning Red usually got some nice audience reactions in theater trailers. (I'll also add that any decent box office will usually shut up any review bombs.)

Lightyear just wasn't it.

 

[Lucky Planet]

i will be honest, when i saw the trailers, Chris Evans just did not do it for me......i understand Tim Allen has his controversies, but Chris Evans was just not good.
then i read all the twists and spoilers, and this just sounded dull, i havent watch it, but it didnt sound like a fun movie.

 

[Nick]

i will be honest, when i saw the trailers, Chris Evans just did not do it for me......i understand Tim Allen has his controversies, but Chris Evans was just not good.
then i read all the twists and spoilers, and this just sounded dull, i havent watch it, but it didnt sound like a fun movie.

Picking up on the Tim Allen thing - Disney clearly didn't move away from him because of his controversies and more because the story called for the "real" Buzz it seems. Why does this seem to be the case? Because Disney is still in business with Tim Allen on a major Disney+ Holiday show. They have already shot a full season of a show that's within Disney's "The Santa Clause" universe of films, in which Tim Allen stars as Santa Claus.

All of that said, the marketing for this movie was incredibly bad and I never truly cared to leave my house to see this movie. The marketing for this movie actually helped make up my mind to just wait for it to hit Disney+ if anything.