Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[Paulio]

Stop looking stateside and look international with Sony TV....not everything is about domestic productions which Universal is already set.

You weren't being specific about it though. And what good does Sony TV has done intentionally in terms of entertainment? Enlighten me why Comcast was previously interested it.

 

[quinnmac000]

You weren't being specific about it though. And what good does Sony TV has done intentionally in terms of entertainment? Enlighten me why Comcast was previously interested it.

You do know Sony Television has the largest TV catalog in both number of IPs and revenue worldwide since 2015 followed by Warner Bros with larger operations in Japan and India. (the only thing Fox has more is UK based distribution,) Add in Universal trying to boost their content in Asia which Aniplex/Madhouse/Funimation which not only includes anime but also Asian dramas, it makes a lot of sense why Comcast wants it.

 

[deathcab4cutie]

dont think uni is gonna buy fox.Disney is only trying to buy fox because they are trying to kill Netflix.

 

[Andysol]

The way it works is that Fox would keep Fox broadcast network and local tv stations/affiliates, Fox News and their Fox Sports networks.

That's because there are anti-trust issues (laws preventing companies from multiple broadcast networks, i.e. ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS; no company can own 2 of them), as well as anti-trust issues with taking over Fox News or Sports.


Here's what's for sale: 20th Century Fox (the movie studio and tv studio including Fox Animation and Blue Sky), Star India and 39% of Sky, National Geographic and FX cable networks, and 30% of Hulu. Those are the most important parts of this sale.

Im curious- what’s in it for Fox? Why would they want out of the movie, cable channels and streaming business? I feel like it diversifies them. Is it just cashing out while you can?

I mean- FX has taken the crown from AMC in regards to cable dramas in the last couple of years. At least from a critical standpoint (plenty of people still watch that travesty known as the walking dead- but I digress).

 

[zg44]

Im curious- what’s in it for Fox? Why would they want out of the movie, cable channels and streaming business? I feel like it diversifies them. Is it just cashing out while you can?

I mean- FX has taken the crown from AMC in regards to cable dramas in the last couple of years. At least from a critical standpoint (plenty of people still watch that travesty known as the walking dead- but I digress).

Here's the incentive: the remaining businesses (Fox broadcast, Fox News/Sports) are not as dependent on international scale as the "for sale assets" that I listed.

Why? Netflix, Amazon Prime, Youtube are mainly competing with the "for sale assets" in terms of movies/tv production; i.e. Netflix/Amazon/Apple/etc. ordering movies/tv etc.

So for Fox, this is the calculation. It will be an all stock transaction ($30bn in stock of company buying) in exchange for those "for sale assets":

Fox can choose between its current setup or one of the two following setups:
1) Own 17-18% of Disney with the for sale assets merged into Disney (i.e. theme parks, Marvel reunited, the strength of Disney's live action franchises + Avatar/Apes/Aliens etc., Disney/Pixar + Blue Sky/Fox Animation as well as ESPN/A+E merged with FX/National Geographic etc.) versus owning those assets outright which are subscale.

2) Own 15.5-16% of Comcast with the for sale assets merged into Comcast (i.e. massive cable operation, theme parks, Jurassic/F&F + X-men/FF, Avatar, Apes, Alien live action franchises, DreamWorks/Illumination + Blue Sky/Fox Animation, USA network/Bravo merged with FX/National Geographic etc.) versus owning those assets outright which are subscale.

That's why I think a sale is likely.

If you're Rupert Murdoch, you'd rather get $30bn in stock with a much larger conglomerate ("for sale assets" merged into Disney or Comcast) instead of owning 100% of those assets.

 

[Paulio]

Im curious- what’s in it for Fox? Why would they want out of the movie, cable channels and streaming business? I feel like it diversifies them. Is it just cashing out while you can?

I mean- FX has taken the crown from AMC in regards to cable dramas in the last couple of years. At least from a critical standpoint (plenty of people still watch that travesty known as the walking dead- but I digress).

21st Century Fox wanted to downsize the business and focus on the ones that make them more relevant: News and Sports. They want tons and tons of money and they felt the movie and cable business isn't in the interest of the company anymore.

 

[Nick]

The problem is we don't know what the Avatar-Disney agreement is...

Well, we do know that when first announced, Disney said it was their first land using the IP and signified they were interested in cloning to other locations. They've tried selling the Pandora concept to the group that owns Tokyo Disney, but they don't want it. I'm going to assume that Disney has international rights based on that.

I don't see another Pandora being built, but I could easily see Flight of Passage being cloned.

 

[Scott W.]

Well, we do know that when first announced, Disney said it was their first land using the IP and signified they were interested in cloning to other locations. They've tried selling the Pandora concept to the group that owns Tokyo Disney, but they don't want it. I'm going to assume that Disney has international rights based on that.

I don't see another Pandora being built, but I could easily see Flight of Passage being cloned.

Could FOP replace Star Tours in DL?

 

[Nick]

Could FOP replace Star Tours in DL?

I don't see how it could. FoP has five floors, with 3 of them (2-4) being for the IMAX domes. The first and fifth floors are mostly maintenance related what what I know (first floor may have a decent sized ops base though).

Plus, it's a completely different ride system. Disney is likely going to want to re-use that system for whatever they replace ST with down the line. And let's not forget that FoP already has 4 theatres and is considered to be a low-mid capacity attraction still.

 

[Scott W.]

I don't see how it could. FoP has five floors, with 3 of them (2-4) being for the IMAX domes. The first and fifth floors are mostly maintenance related what what I know (first floor may have a decent sized ops base though).

Plus, it's a completely different ride system. Disney is likely going to want to re-use that system for whatever they replace ST with down the line. And let's not forget that FoP already has 4 theatres and is considered to be a low-mid capacity attraction still.

I am forever getting MK and DL Tomorrowland mixed up. I forgot that Space Mountain is to the south and not the east.

I thought there was a huge plot of land behind Star Tours where that theatre is getting built in Magic Kindom.

It would be a nice addition though.

 

[Paulio]

Well, we do know that when first announced, Disney said it was their first land using the IP and signified they were interested in cloning to other locations. They've tried selling the Pandora concept to the group that owns Tokyo Disney, but they don't want it. I'm going to assume that Disney has international rights based on that.

I don't see another Pandora being built, but I could easily see Flight of Passage being cloned.

I assume that by your saying that Disney has the worldwide theme park rights to Avatar, even if Comcast/NBCUniversal bought 21st Century Fox's entire key assets. I really need to see the theme park license Disney has with 20th Century Fox before I make a decision.

 

[Nick]

I assume that by your saying that Disney has the worldwide theme park rights to Avatar, even if Comcast/NBCUniversal bought 21st Century Fox's entire key assets. I really need to see the theme park license Disney has with 20th Century Fox before I make a decision.

What I'm getting at in short is that Universal couldn't open an Avatar attraction in Japan or Beijing if they wanted to, should they buy that division of FOX.

 

[Legacy]

I hope they buy Fox so we can get The Orville to replace T2.

 

[bob albert]

I hope they buy Fox so we can get The Orville to replace T2.

Lol an off brand show on it's first season. Sure.

 

[Legacy]

Lol an off brand show on it's first season. Sure.

I also want True Blood as a HHN haunt.

Just because I express a desire for something doesn’t mean I expect it to happen.

 

[Paulio]

What I'm getting at in short is that Universal couldn't open an Avatar attraction in Japan or Beijing if they wanted to, should they buy that division of FOX.

So I guess it's unlike the Marvel-Universal deal where Disney owns the worldwide theme park rights to all Marvel characters (Los Angeles though can't advertise Marvel characters or use the Marvel name) but not Orlando and Japan in terms of specific Marvel characters. I don't know of it's true or not, but unless I see that deal like you see the Marvel-Universal deal online, I gonna assume that Universal owns the worldwide theme parks to Avatar except Orlando.

I hope they buy Fox so we can get The Orville to replace T2.

The Orville is a poorly received show and it isn't as well advertised as other shows on FX. Universal Studios states the T2 replacement will be one of its own franchises it created and distributed even after its acquisition of 20th Century Fox. There's nothing valuable about the show anyways nor anything redeemable that would make it theme park relevant. Put something that is actually popular with guests and not something they don't know off.

 

[GAcoaster]

It's just too bad that they didn't acquire Warner. THAT would have been the content goldmine as well as simplified licensing for Potter.

 

[Paulio]

It's just too bad that they didn't acquire Warner. THAT would have been the content goldmine as well as simplified licensing for Potter.

From my understanding, the reason why the deal failed because Comcast was throttling Netflix in order to extract money from them hurts the deal. DOJ and FCC realized that they need to include over the top video into the definition of video, and then it led to them calculating what percent of broadband market the company would hold, and then it was the end of it. Comcast couldn't prove the deal would be beneficial so DOJ blocked the merger and the former backed off.

Fox's deal should be less of a hassle to Comcast since most of the Fox assets are movie and cable television assets, as well as the international assets Comcast needs to expand its brand overseas. Movie and TV cable wise, it would give Comcast/NBCUniversal access to X-Men and possibly a deal with Constantine Films which owns the film rights to the Fantastic Four and needs a major film studio to distribute, as well as Planet of the Apes and Alien and Die Hard franchises. Not only that, but it would give Comcast/NBCUniversal access to shows like Legion, the Gifted, American Horror Story, Archer, Simpsons, Family Guy, etc, that its own broadcast entertainment networks (USA Network, Bravo, SyFy, and NBC, etc) lack. Let's not forget NBCUniversal's Chiller channel is declining and is on its way to being shut down next month so Fox'-Comcast deal should alleviate that kind of problem.

Theme park wise, it would give Universal Parks & Resorts tons of assets to choose from for Site B in Orlando, as well as replacing unpopular ones in Los Angeles, Osaka, and Singapore. Think about the TV and movie shows Universal can choose from instead of sharing money with the 3rd party companies. It would give Comcast a more serious threat to Disney parks all around the world and makes both theme park operators more competitive.

 

[zg44]

@Paulio

Comcast tried to buy Time Warner Cable (the cable company spun out of Time Warner as part of the post AOL Time Warner restructuring). AOL Time Warner was broken up into many companies as a result of that disastrous merger amid the tech boom/bust: AOL, Time Warner, Time Warner Cable, Time Inc., Warner Music Group, etc.

Comcast + Time Warner Cable would have controlled 80+% of the US broadband cable market. That's why the merger failed.

Time Warner Cable was bought by Charter after that.

Time Warner is a completely separate issue, but there's no way Comcast would be able to take over Time Warner's Turner networks (CNN, TNT, TBS, etc.), so they never approached Time Warner.

At this point, Time Warner only controls HBO, Turner networks, and Warner Bros. studio. The rest of the AOL Time Warner empire is gone.

 

[Nick]

So I guess it's unlike the Marvel-Universal deal where Disney owns the worldwide theme park rights to all Marvel characters (Los Angeles though can't advertise Marvel characters or use the Marvel name) but not Orlando and Japan in terms of specific Marvel characters. I don't know of it's true or not, but unless I see that deal like you see the Marvel-Universal deal online, I gonna assume that Universal owns the worldwide theme parks to Avatar except Orlando.

I'm fairly certain Disney has the worldwide rights so I don't think you are right, but again, i'm just going off what's been said since we don't know the contract.