Izzy you of all people I know are very familiar with Disney so think of this as well. 4600 people a day on FP+ equals roughly 30 people for every 5 min time interval or 360 per hour. Take that number down to lets say 3000 FP+ spots per day and it equals roughly 20 people per 5 min block and 250 FP+ per hour. Both of these scenarios are WELL UNDER the average hourly FP throughput for attractions across Disneyworld. Going even further down the rabbit hole what about the crazy Disney whackos who are planning their entire vacations down to the minute months in advance, or the thousands of families staying on site who get first dibs? Whats that gonna leave the general public with, a couple hundred FP+ options for the mine train that will go 10 times faster than the TSMM??? How can you justify who gets priority and who doesn't? Cause I can tell you right now the people staying at the MK resort area who are paying 500 bucks a night think they are entitled and want priority on EVERYTHING!! Then what about DVC?? HOLY **** BATMAN!!!
Sorry to go so far into it but hey I would want my family to experience this as well, and if we didn't get to or let alone stand a fair chance of seeing it I'd be seriously pissed off. On a side note I just want to say good luck to the CM's working Customer Service this Summer. You deal with entitlement, idiots, and people that most would generally stay away from. Trust me I know all too well what its like to be in that chair...
Well hotel guests get 60 days out where individual and passholders get 30 days out. So they did fix the priority there when it comes to FP+. They have done a good job with the other rides that passes seem to still be available all the way up to the morning of. But if they limit this one to less than 4600 you are right, passes will go way too fast and this ride will stick out like a sore thumb. But with those numbers of guests the other issue is how long the FP+ line is going to be if they only can handle 800 an hour and half those guests are coming via FP, that is going to be another issue.
I am not sure what the capacity of TSMM, but yes, I can see this being an issue like TSMM for the first couple years. Now the difference between TSMM and this is that at least this does have a height restriction and is a roller coaster. So this will limit the guest population trying to ride it. For TSMM everyone who enters the park can physically go on it and since it is not a thrill ride, everyone wants to go on it. Where the coaster limits the population entering the park that can go on it. Under 38" can't go on and normally a parent stays back with the younger ones. Then elderly or those too scared to go on coasters will also stay back. Which is a plus, but not enough of a plus if it is 800. 1200 gets us to 14,400 in a 12 hour day. With that they could offer the 4600 per day and that would leave a little under 10k spots for general public. This would not be ideal and especially is gonna be a pain for the first year or two, but I see it coming down to normal waits in the long run. While MK attendance numbers are high (44k) many of those people spend more than one day at MK. When you are staying a week you normally do one day in each of the 3 and then multiple days in MK. So that also helps this ride because most people won't wait out the long line more than once. So again not the entire 44k will be trying to get on. However, way more than 14400 or 9600 are going to be trying to get on, so either capacity levels are going to be an issue. So if three trains was always the plan, they REALLY miscalculated how large this ride needed to be.
I do agree this is going to be a nightmare for ops and guest relations the first year or two. It already is with the delayed opening. Most people thought it would be open by now even with their stretched out construction schedule. Not opening by Spring Break was not good and if they don't get this thing to softs before the summer crowds, they are royally screwed. Because trying to do this type of capacity ride in summer crowd with typical break downs and shut downs, it just won't work, it will be a guest relations nightmare more than the capacity issue already is.
Someone compared this to HE and I agree, I think we have two rides opening this summer that are going to have capacity issues. It will be interesting to see how both of them work out in the end and how the different parks handle the issue. I will say this, I will be going to this in softs (as long as it opens before summer crowds) or I will be booking a FP+ out 30 days. For HE I also will be doing softs, because no way am I waiting in that line in the summer. I do disagree that HE will be less of an issue because you need a pass for both parks, I think that is offset with the fact that it is a ride that everyone that enters the park with a park hopper pass can go on. Not to mention is the the ONLY ride (not show) that babies can go on. So everyone with a park hopper (and I think many may upgrade to park hopper just for this) will be trying to get on HE.