I feel like a lot immediate "Bourne won't happen" is ignoring a good bit of context being spelt out in this thread.
Bourne would be the IP if Universal doesn't win the rights to Bond. It's a Plan B. Ignoring Plan A removes the potential of the attraction for BOTH franchises.
So, let's stop focusing on Plan B and look at the potential of Plan A.
The car chases could be recreated the same way T2:3D did a motorcycle chase. There's precedent for that sort of this in that same space.
The construction requires demo of all the Terminator effects, and installing the mechanisms for Bond. They could do car and bike intros/exits. With a city scape and projection mapping they could do some awesome stuff.
All the smoke is coming from the Bond fire.
And to the point of Comcast going with "sure things?" Fallon.
IF they get the "rights" to Bond, it would be like Harry Potter or Marvel. They will NEVER own the movies, they would - at most - simply have the right to use the character in the theme parks. The Bond films have always been independent productions that have been distributed by the larger movie studios. Distributing a film does NOT give you rights to the character. So Bond IS NOT and WILL NEVER BE a "Universal franchise" in the same exact way that Harry Potter is NOT a "Universal franchise" and the Marvel canon is NOT a "Universal franchise". (Someone hinted above that "Universal franchise" could be the safety phrase in case they don't get Bond... that doesn't make any sense. Then they would've just said something like "International Action Legend" or something else that is WAAAAAY more exciting than "Universal franchise", something that would be inclusive of both characters. Besides, if it ends up being Bond, then they will be on the receiving end of tons of flak for that misleading "Universal franchise" bit.)
Nothing you are presenting can be remotely considered a "live action" show. You're talking a filmed attraction with an occasional live element. By your definition, T2:3-D was a "live action show". It wasn't. Yes, the PR might end up being misleading, but it would have to be almost ENTIRELY misleading, something Universal hasn't exhibited in the past when it comes to their press releases.
And Comcast's "sure thing" wasn't Fallon. It was "The Tonight Show". Which is still the #1 show in late night. By a wide margin. (Unfortunately.) That attraction was all about selling NBC/Comcast merchandise, so it was a smart, cheap way to make that happen.
I'm not saying I think you're wrong, but I hope this isn't the calculation that Universal makes. I feel like replacing a more teen/adult-skewing show like T2 with something more explicitly aimed at younger audiences or families would be a huge mistake. Nintendo is going to handle that, plus perhaps whatever might eventually replace Shrek.
T2's replacement should be in the same general genre, I feel.
Not necessarily. Barney is disappearing soon. We all know Shrek isn't long for this world. That's two younger-skewing shows going away, three if Nintendo needs the Animal Actors space. They NEED a family-style show more than they need a teen-skewing show. Teen-skewing is basically the rest of this park! Even better, though, a Kung Fu Panda martial arts/acrobatic show or a Dragon-flying show would target a wider age range than Barney currently does. I know I'd see either of those shows. Probably repeatedly.
I'm not saying I'm right either. I'm just throwing out there what makes more sense. I would certainly rather see either of these shows than a Bourne show. And I'm sure most people would agree, according to box office receipts. DWA would sell way more merch also, which is often the biggest reason IPs are chosen. My biggest problem with a Jason Bourne show is its complete lack of merchandising promise (Bond, on the other hand, would sell merch). If this doesn't turn into a DWA show, then that means they have bigger plans for those "franchises", meaning either DreamWorks Lagoon or a land in the new park.
If it's a stunt show type thing, what happens to Sindbad?
Nothing. Two different parks. Plus, they'd clearly be two different types of stunt shows. Not that Sindbad is safe. There are three areas in UO not pulling their weight: Toon Lagoon, the Fear Factor Live theater, and Lost Continent. The Mario-centric land going into KidZone makes it seem like Nintendo will go the Harry Potter route with different Nintendo lands throughout the resort. Other than a Yoshi/Donkey Kong retheming of Toon Lagoon, the only real way to put Nintendo in this park would be to redo Lost Continent with a Zelda theme. While Link isn't as widely known as many of the Nintendo mascots, his games have a rabid fanbase that shouldn't be ignored. This smallish island is perfect for that property: big enough for a couple of inventive E-Tickets; small enough to not pull focus from the premier lands.
But that's what would be perfect for this exact moment in time. After the Harry Potter coaster, the next item on the agenda will probably be the Toon Lagoon retheme, as it's a cheap way to advertise "new" attractions and to get another Universal franchise - or franchises - into the park. Whether it'll be an Illumination-themed land, a DWA-themed land, or a land themed to just one film (Madagascar being the obvious choice for this watery land) is still up in the air. Then we'll probably be getting the Diagon Alley expansion and the third park. By then, there will be a lot more options to replace Lost Continent.
As Tankart150 mentioned, The Goddard Group has actually concocted a James Bond stunt show. It's a huge spectacle-type show, which would never ever EVER fit into the T2 theater. It would probably have to be put into the Sindbad theater. It wouldn't be all that cheap, as the volcano the theater would be located in is located in "Japan", which would require a retheme of the entire Lost Continent. But a retheme could also include a new Bond attraction for Poseidon's Fury. (And Mythos could turn into a teppanyaki restaurant!!!) This is another reason I have issues with this whole T-2/James Bond business. Universal has worked with The Goddard Group on many attractions. I can't see them ignoring this bit of excellence for something that would go into a 700-seat theater. Bond isn't just a 700-seat show; Bond is a full-on land.