I’ve just started cooking this take so forgive me…
But I’m not sure the box office performance here is 100% a Star Wars issue.
Full disclosure: I do think Disney screwed up Star Wars. I loved Last Jedi, hated Force Awakens, and have essentially written Rise of Skywalker off as fan fiction. I don’t even like “good” Disney Star Wars (Rogue One is a bland and undercooked and I just can’t get into Andor).
With that being said, there’s merit to having a movie like Mandalorian & Grogu added to the theatrical Star Wars canon. It’s not slavishly tied to the Skywalker family or any legacy characters, it’s devoid of any politics, and it’s in the mold of a fun old serial. By all accounts, that’s what makes Star Wars, Star Wars.
I think there’s more to the underperformance here. Yes, everyone’s a little burned by Star Wars, but I think moviegoer habits have more to do with this than anything. It’s not like the movie’s losing money to another franchise blockbuster…it’s losing to indie horror movies. And it’s not like this is unique to Star Wars. Fantastic Four last summer was disappointing. Superman last summer was disappointing.
Clearly audiences still have an appetite for movies, evident by Obsession and Backrooms. But are those audiences the same mass audiences that were showing out for Force Awakens, Infinity War, etc.? I think the dynamic has changed…you’re now getting throngs of “movie fans” rather than “populist entertainment fans,” and generic blockbuster spectacle doesn’t appeal to that new group. It’s unique stories, smart writing, clever plot set-ups, etc. that bring people in (also see the performance of Marty Supreme this year vs Uncut Gems in 2019 as just one example). You need some buzz on Letterboxd, not Access Hollywood, to get some box office traction these days.
So while this movie is a disappointment I think this marks a really good trend for movies overall. The message being sent is that there’s a group that’ll keep theaters alive…but that group wants your small/mid-budget originals. It’s like a massive course correction from the peak of the MCU. I’m personally here for it, even if it means sacrificing theatrical Star Wars content.