Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[zg44]

So, the proposed Mandarin is not necessarily a done deal. Right? It may never exist at all. It kills me how you understand this stuff zz...

It’s just as finalized as the Kirkman extension is. The county has a whole road plan for that area that probably will drastically change at the whim of Universal. The county probably wouldn’t care if UOR asked to move the ROWs around.

It's complicated because FQP still owns those baby blue parcels that require Mandarin Drive extension for access.

My understanding is that any of the "owners" of the parcels can activate the building process for that road (now just Stan Thomas or Universal, before that also included the 101 acre owner Orlando IA). If Universal acquires all of the land, then they can change it entirely.

But if FQP wants to keep those baby blues, then they can actually pursue having the whole road built out based on the rights of way granted.

That's also why those FQP properties are so important. They're right in the middle of the theme park zoned properties, and they have that Mandarin Drive extension option. If Universal wants to take complete control of the Mandarin Drive extension, then they need to take over those FQP baby blue properties.

 

[fryoj]

So, the proposed Mandarin is not necessarily a done deal. Right? It may never exist at all. It kills me how you understand this stuff zz...

I think the future of the mandarin project may hinge on whether Uni gets the property on the West side of the Lockheed plant. If they do, I think they will push for the Mandarin project to get done. It'll give them a nice state funded road between their properties that they otherwise would have to build themselves. It's also plotted to be built on Lockheed's property, so Uni doesn't have to tie up their own property.

 

[JoeCamel]

It's complicated because FQP still owns those baby blue parcels that require Mandarin Drive extension for access.

My understanding is that any of the "owners" of the parcels can activate the building process for that road (now just Stan Thomas or Universal, before that also included the 101 acre owner Orlando IA). If Universal acquires all of the land, then they can change it entirely.

But if FQP wants to keep those baby blues, then they can actually pursue having the whole road built out based on the rights of way granted.

That's also why those FQP properties are so important. They're right in the middle of the theme park zoned properties, and they have that Mandarin Drive extension option. If Universal wants to take complete control of the Mandarin Drive extension, then they need to take over those FQP baby blue properties.

Not sure what the particulars of this project are but in Hillsborough the developer will have to pay development cost (or a large portion of) to have a road put in. I doubt Stan could come up with the cash to get it rolling.

 

[WAJAS]

Not sure what the particulars of this project are but in Hillsborough the developer will have to pay development cost (or a large portion of) to have a road put in. I doubt Stan could come up with the cash to get it rolling.

It's a very similar process in Orange County. Although it gets messy on the property specific details.

EDIT: Also, in case this is important at all. A portion of the Mandarin Drive extension has already been built as a part of developments on other nearby properties, like Andretti and Top Golf. This is in addition to the new road that directly accesses the extension because the extension doesn't connect to the original Mandarin Drive.

 

[zg44]

Not sure what the particulars of this project are but in Hillsborough the developer will have to pay development cost (or a large portion of) to have a road put in. I doubt Stan could come up with the cash to get it rolling.

For the Mandarin Drive extension, either owner can build the entire road across all properties, but they have to pay the whole cost out of pocket and then receive impact fee credits equivalent to that cost to use on their actual development.

So yeah, I don't think he's likely to either.

 

[WAJAS]

For the Mandarin Drive extension, either owner can build the entire road across all properties, but they have to pay the whole cost out of pocket and then receive impact fee credits to use on their actual development.

So yeah, I don't think he's likely to either.

It's nice to have someone else knowledgeable on this kind of thing on the boards. I possess a pretty limited knowledge myself, but I've still corrected a lot of property/ROW based posts on here in the past. Especially on the I-4 and current I-Drive district projects.

 

[Mad Dog]

It's nice to have someone else knowledgeable on this kind of thing on the boards. I possess a pretty limited knowledge myself, but I've still corrected a lot of property/ROW based posts on here in the past. Especially on the I-4 and current I-Drive district projects.

Yes. zg44 reminds me a lot of Parents of Four on the WDW Magic site. And that's a big time compliment. His posts and input are greatly appreciated.

 

[zg44]

@Teebin
For now though, I'd assume that all planning that UC is doing takes into account the Mandarin Drive extension as is. It doesn't impact anything negatively in a general sense since it leaves most of the actual theme park/CityWalk space alone. It appears to be closer to where we'd likely expect hotels and/or the water park to be. Having a road there is actually useful in all likelihood as @fryoj pointed out.

 

[JoeCamel]

For the Mandarin Drive extension, either owner can build the entire road across all properties, but they have to pay the whole cost out of pocket and then receive impact fee credits equivalent to that cost to use on their actual development.

So yeah, I don't think he's likely to either.

It's nice to have someone else knowledgeable on this kind of thing on the boards. I possess a pretty limited knowledge myself, but I've still corrected a lot of property/ROW based posts on here in the past. Especially on the I-4 and current I-Drive district projects.

I am always amazed at what talented people show up on this board and others. Seems for almost any subject there is someone who has intimate knowledge and is willing to share it with all so a construction geek like me can get his fix.
Thanks to all

 

[AlexanderMBush]

 

[zg44]

This appears to be the new information there:
"Universal representatives have told Orange County staff of a vision for two new theme parks on the land, but the company has not announced specific plans."

I'd assume that means 2 dry parks (and a water park), though it's impossible to tell since it's secondhand information.

"A Thomas Enterprises spokeswoman told GrowthSpotter on Thursday evening that the company is now working with Ardent and a new lender to resolve the dispute. "

Also that, but I think Universal is hoping to see the 3 main parcels foreclosed on, so it can buy them out of bankruptcy and not have to worry about those important parcels going to a hotel/apartment/entertainment company.

 

[Teebin]

We talk about this guy so much on here that I figured it would be nice to put a face to the name.

Stan Thomas

 

[Bulldog45]

"Universal representatives have told Orange County staff of a vision for two new theme parks on the land, but the company has not announced specific plans."

Whoa, TWO new theme parks?! I thought it was going to be one new dry park with another Citywalk type of hub with more hotels and parking structures?

 

[UniversalRBLX]

2 is obviously want they want, and used to make the county approve permits, etc. much quicker.

Although 1 theme park is what they want right now.

 

[JungleSkip]

I still think "2 theme pakrs" = one dry, one water

 

[zg44]

"Universal representatives have told Orange County staff of a vision for two new theme parks on the land, but the company has not announced specific plans."

Whoa, TWO new theme parks?! I thought it was going to be one new dry park with another Citywalk type of hub with more hotels and parking structures?

The land is easily large enough to place two 100-150 acre parks and a water park as well as a larger CityWalk 2.0 (probably closer to the size of Disney Springs than the current CityWalk).

Reality is there's a lot of land, but this will all depend on what the long-term strategy is; at a minimum, we should expect a new dry park and a new water park along with at least 5,000+ hotel rooms. Everything else will depend on how that phase performs.

I'd venture though that the market can easily sustain a 4th Universal dry park by 2035 given population growth and the rest. Of course, you need IPs and all that to sustain such an effort, but they'll probably place 100-120 acres aside for that future effort.

 

[Cheezbat]

I still think "2 theme pakrs" = one dry, one water

Exactly.

People quickly forget that Universal currently labels Volcano Bay as their third theme park...so for all we know they're referencing adding one dry park and another water park.

 

[bob albert]

I thought universal wanted to potentially make this their magic kingdom with a huge slate of family rides/ent, large walkways, strolled parking etc. It would be less likely to get two dry parks if that were the goal.

 

[JoeCamel]

I thought universal wanted to potentially make this their magic kingdom with a huge slate of family rides/ent, large walkways, strolled parking etc. It would be less likely to get two dry parks if that were the goal.

Why imitate when you can innovate?

 

[zg44]

Exactly.

People quickly forget that Universal currently labels Volcano Bay as their third theme park...so for all we know they're referencing adding one dry park and another water park.

I thought universal wanted to potentially make this their magic kingdom with a huge slate of family rides/ent, large walkways, strolled parking etc. It would be less likely to get two dry parks if that were the goal.

Well everything we know is second-hand information. It could be 1 dry + 1 water, or that could mean 2 dry (and a water park wasn't counted in that number).

Realistically though, knowing what we know about Comcast and the way they've overseen Universal, they place a very high premium on hotel rooms and revenue generation at the parks.

It's just hard for me to see Comcast execs being thrilled about the idea of placing one massive 250 acre park in the center when the Comcast bean counters will point to USF/IoA and say "why not just duplicate that and have 2 gates with 10 million visitors in each?" That's probably the only reason why I think we're looking at one slightly larger park in the 130-150 acre range and then 100-110 acres set aside for a second gate in the distant future. (If the 3rd dry park never hits 10 million, then maybe they just make those 100-110 acres into premium hotels instead of a 4th dry gate).

Also, I'd venture that whatever they do, they'll make sure they don't make the mistakes of the past where they didn't plan out the future of the resort well; at the very least, they should leave themselves a path to a 4th dry park if all 3 parks are hitting phenomenal numbers (5 including the 2 water parks) even if that path requires them to buy Lockheed Martin's plant and build the 4th dry park there.