Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[AlexanderMBush]

I could see some hotels and parts of CityWalk 2.0 opening in 2022.

Yeah, I could honestly see at-least a portion of CW 2.0, one or two of the hotels, and a new parking structure be ready by 2022, just to allow extra capacity en-case, and then launching everything else the year after.

 

[Magic-Man]

I could see some hotels and parts of CityWalk 2.0 opening in 2022.

What about a new waterpark?

 

[AlexanderMBush]

What about a new waterpark?

I honestly doubt they will have a waterpark at the ready. I would honestly think they would rather want to get the third dry park up and running, along with giving Volcano Bay enough to justify people coming to it before a second waterpark is done.

I do think it could come shortly after, but I highly doubt they will have it at the ready at the beginning of the South's lifespan.

 

[Disneyhead]

What about a new waterpark?

I would hope at the same time as the 3rd dry gate. Otherwise poor VB will get hammered.

 

[GoUCFKnights]

They need to run an Attractions Express (elevated train) down the 528/I-4 from MCO to Disney with stops at the AMTRAK/Sunrail crossover, OCCC (OCCC, Universal, SeaWorld, I-Drive) and Disney.

And connect the north end of the 429 to I-4.

The last proposal was to follow 528 to I-Drive down to the convention center, with stops at MCO, Sand Lake Sunrail station, Florida Mall, and then a few along I-Drive/convention center. The proposal died with the airport saying this route would hurt rental car revenues too much, so if it were to be allowed on airport property, they would need to be paid just as if they got rental car rental fees for the users of this system. Hopefully the route will be revived and add Universal stops. The previous proposal was using maglev, so it would have been pretty cool too and among the first in America.

Disney is a no on airport transit unless it exits the south side of the airport and takes 417 to Disney. A proposed future phase was to have the train go the opposite way from the airport, hit Lake Nona, Gaylord Palms, then Disney. Having the train pass by Universal/I-Drive before Disney, making it seem convenient on the way to or from Disney, will kill any proposals to Disney, they flat out will not allow it.

 

[Magic-Man]

I honestly doubt they will have a waterpark at the ready. I would honestly think they would rather want to get the third dry park up and running, along with giving Volcano Bay enough to justify people coming to it before a second waterpark is done.

I do think it could come shortly after, but I highly doubt they will have it at the ready at the beginning of the South's lifespan.

Even if VB does get enough to help capacity (as it is right now), there's going to be a lot more people trying to go there in 2023. I also don't see Universal making people take buses from UniSouth to the current resort, and then have them take another bus to Volcano Bay. It would be easier to build a water park next to the new park. I don't think that the new water park will be on the same level as Volcano Bay, so it probably won't cost as much.

 

[Disneyhead]

I just wanted to add that I heard the south campus was green lit and prioritised (low level fast track) in August. And then legit fast tracked after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in December.

 

[zg44]

Opening 2 parks at once is a heavy lift in terms of employee training, transportation infrastructure adapting to changes, and all sorts of other matters (i.e. making sure the technology all works, etc.); can it be done? Yes, but it still sounds like they'd start the building process for the water park and aim to open it the following year after the dry park.


I actually like this timeline:

2022: CityWalk 2.0 mostly opens, 2-3 hotels open
2023: dry park opens, 1 hotel opens
2024: water park opens, 1 hotel opens

Of course, VB will be getting slammed in 2022-2023 under this timeline, but I still think they'd prefer to stagger the openings in a way that Universal can train employees, add buses, etc. over a rolling 3 year span instead of mostly in a single year.

Universal's employee count is going to increase by around 10,000-15,000 over a 3 year span, I'd think they'd want to stagger that as much as possible.

 

[tidecat]

If construction starts in early 2020, a waterpark opening in 2022 seems feasible. Keep in mind Volcano Bay does have some room for expansion, although it is quite limited.

I personally think the next dry park will open first in 2023 - it will drive hotel volume more consistently throughout the year, and I’m sure the novelty of it will be a slight drag on the north campus parks, at least initially. Come 2024-25, the new waterpark opens.

This also presumes Sea World is still around - if Aquatica falls into Universal’s lap, I could see Universal finding a way to put “on-site” hotels at Aquatica and running shuttles to it like Universal does for Volcano Bay, even if Universal doesn’t wind up with the rest of Sea World Orlando.

 

[Magic-Man]

Opening 2 parks at once is a heavy lift in terms of employee training, transportation infrastructure adapting to changes, and all sorts of other matters (i.e. making sure the technology all works, etc.); can it be done? Yes, but it still sounds like they'd start the building process for the water park and aim to open it the following year after the dry park.


I actually like this timeline:

2022: CityWalk 2.0 mostly opens, 2-3 hotels open
2023: dry park opens, 1 hotel opens
2024: water park opens, 1 hotel opens

Of course, VB will be getting slammed in 2022-2023 under this timeline, but I still think they'd prefer to stagger the openings in a way that Universal can train employees, add buses, etc. over a rolling 3 year span instead of mostly in a single year.

The only issue is the fact that there will still be construction going on when the rest of the resort opens. I don't think Universal would want that.

 

[tidecat]

The only issue is the fact that there will still be construction going on when the rest of the resort opens. I don't think Universal would want that.

Like that isn’t an issue now?

That said, it may make sense to try to get the heavier work (clearing land, utilities) out of the way first, even if both parks don’t open at the same time. There can also be more space between the parks than there is at the current resort.

 

[Magic-Man]

Like that isn’t an issue now?

That said, it may make sense to try to get the heavier work (clearing land, utilities) out of the way first, even if both parks don’t open at the same time. There can also be more space between the parks than there is at the current resort.

It would be different if it was in an existing resort. But a new one? Not a good look for Universal.

 

[zg44]

I just wanted to add that I heard the south campus was green lit and prioritised (low level fast track) in August. And then legit fast tracked after the Ryan/Trump Tax Bill passed.

It's because there's all sorts of bonus tax implications to getting property improvements activated as quickly as possible before tax law phaseouts begin in 2023.

I'm not a tax lawyer, so I can't talk specifically about Comcast, but basically the expensing depreciation bonuses will begin to phase out after 2023. So if Universal wants to take advantage of those, they need as much built as possible by December 31, 2023. They'll still get bonuses in 2024-2027 for improvements, but each year they lose an additional 20% of the bonus I think.

 

[Ridgepole]

As long as they get the Prancing Pony up and running first I'm good with it. Oh, it comes in pints?

 

[Frank Drackman]

I'd say a lot longer than. Remember, that Universal used to own a good chunk of this land but Vivendi sold it off.

yes, I get this. What I meant was that I would guess that around the time Transformers was built, UC would have been told to start planning for another resort.

I think their current parent company knows what it is doing and they chose to go all in shortly after they took full control of UC.

 

[fryoj]

I could see some hotels and parts of CityWalk 2.0 opening in 2022.

I think hotels starting to come online in 2021 is a real possibility. The Wet'n Wild Parking lot is still a parking lot and it'll be open in two years. A month ago, the main WNW plot was bare land and it'll be open in just over a year. Some of it will come down to what level of hotel they decide to put down there(value, moderate, or deluxe) and how they prioritize. Citiwalk and hotels can start making money off of convention traffic now. Theres no need for them to slow them down to wait for the park to open. I could definitely see them starting on the main parking garages by the end of this year, and early next year they start on hotel construction. With a 2 year construction schedule, a Summer 2021 opening can happen.

I just wanted to add that I heard the south campus was green lit and prioritised (low level fast track) in August. And then legit fast tracked after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in December.

And like @zg44 said, those tax cuts won't be around forever. There will be pressure to get as much done as quick as possible.

 

[Scott W.]

yes, I get this. What I meant was that I would guess that around the time Transformers was built, UC would have been told to start planning for another resort.

I think their current parent company knows what it is doing and they chose to go all in shortly after they took full control of UC.

I’ve been planning on making a post about timescales in all this but I’ll need to find the time.

With so many stages involved from buying the land to having guests in a park, a lot of the work is prep work which I think would have been before a shove even touches the ground and I think this would have been done years ago.

I’d like to think that a lot of this prep work would have been done but things have drastically changed over the past 15 years so it might all be useless now.

There’s nothing to compare this project to. The last theme park built in Orlando was IOA and even then that was an expansion. The last resort built was was UOR and things have advanced so much that it’s not even comparable.

It’s a massive project with so much to do. I think 2022 would be possible but highly unlikely. I’d put my money on 2023/24.

 

[Magic-Man]

I’ve been planning on making a post about timescales in all this but I’ll need to find the time.

With so many stages involved from buying the land to having guests in a park, a lot of the work is prep work which I think would have been before a shove even touches the ground and I think this would have been done years ago.

I’d like to think that a lot of this prep work would have been done but things have drastically changed over the past 15 years so it might all be useless now.

There’s nothing to compare this project to. The last theme park built in Orlando was IOA and even then that was an expansion. The last resort built was was UOR and things have advanced so much that it’s not even comparable.

It’s a massive project with so much to do. I think 2022 would be possible but highly unlikely. I’d put my money on 2023/24.

You don't count IOA as a new theme park?

 

[WAJAS]

They need to run an Attractions Express (elevated train) down the 528/I-4 from MCO to Disney with stops at the AMTRAK/Sunrail crossover, OCCC (OCCC, Universal, SeaWorld, I-Drive) and Disney.

And connect the north end of the 429 to I-4.

They already are connecting the north end of 429 to I-4. It’s called the Wekiva Parkway and is planned to be finished well before the new resort would open.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I could see some hotels and parts of CityWalk 2.0 opening in 2022.

With the convention center just around the corner I think this is definitely a real possibility.