Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[AlexanderMBush]

If Universal opened a third park that had mostly dry attractions in Orlando in 2023, it would be changing from having 2 such parks in Orlando to 3 parks like that in Orlando in the same year in which Universal Orlando celebrates 33 years of running its first park in Orlando.

If Universal opened a new park that had mostly dry attractions in Orlando or China in 2024, Universal could be changing from having 5 such parks throughout the world to having 6 such parks through out the world in the same year in which 60 years will have passed since Universal will have begun running the Universal Hollywood park.

If Universal opened a new park that had mostly dry attractions in Orlando or China in 2021, Universal could be changing from having 5 such parks throughout the world to having 6 such parks through out the world in the same year in which 106 years will have passed since Universal City along Lankershim Boulevard in California was created.

I...what?

 

[Mr. EPCOT]

I'd say that 25,000 is the absolute upper limit for the planning (and probably slightly higher than where Universal will end up).

With the current UOR heading for 9,000 rooms; it's feasible to think that the south resort will be able to handle somewhere north of that number due to the OCCC proximity.

But how much more?

I think 11,000 rooms is the minimum for a 2 dry park south resort near OCCC, with the upper limit somewhere around 15,000.

That gets you somewhere around 20,000 to 24,000 hotel rooms which is probably perfect for 4 dry parks that are seeing 10+ million visitors each. You can keep 90% capacity and healthy, profitable pricing.

Only if attendance is measurably higher (i.e. each park is seeing 12+ million attendance) should they consider going to 25,000+ rooms.

At that point, it's worth revisiting this consideration and buying up cheaper <$100 room rate hotels (the parcels in green on Universal Blvd. in image below) that are getting squeezed and renovating them into Loews-branded hotels:

I don't think most of those green parcels are hotels with less than $100 room rates and especially not likely to suffer from a lack of business, you've got Wyndham, Crowne Plaza, Hawthorne Suites, the Westgate Palace timeshare. Best Western and Baymont would be most likely to feel the squeeze and get snatched up by Universal, but I don't see them renovating over just outright demolishing them. Not to say they couldn't acquire the other properties if they really wanted, with the exception of Westgate since it has the complication of timeshare. The only one I could see them potentially remodeling is the Crowne Plaza because it's the only one that somewhat resembles the format of the Universal resorts.

 

[Frank Drackman]

It’s the only thing I know.

I can’t give inside tips like @Teebin @AliciaStella or @Disneyhead
I don’t have zoning/expansion expertise like @zg44
I can’t edit and make photos like @scott_walker
I can’t take pics like @Frank Drackman
I don’t search all over twitter for breaking updates like @AlexanderMBush
I don’t have the sense of humor like @shiekra38
I don’t contribute to articles and moderation like @Brian G. @Joe or @Nick

Poop is legitimately my only contribution to the forum.

That’s both literally and metaphorically

I for one appreciated you and everyone that expresses an opinion in this community!

When it comes to this fact stuff, I am always blown away by the knowledge shared here. For the stuff you’ve offered around this, it ties in to stuff i’ve Read about in FL with the constant fight between communities, the Army Core, the sfwnd, the needs for the Everglades, the Manatee, the toxic allege that can hit areas when they need to discharge from The Lake...i’ve found it interesting hearing the proposals of how they use marsh as a natural buffer.

I try to find time to post pictures as I take them when I visit...a lot of the opinions i’ve brought up around here just come from a long time of working in Corp America...I just enjoy 2nd guess what UNI is executing on to diversify their Business...I assume they have 3 years plans, 5 year plans, and long term plans.

 

[zg44]

I don't think most of those green parcels are hotels with less than $100 room rates and especially not likely to suffer from a lack of business, you've got Wyndham, Crowne Plaza, Hawthorne Suites, the Westgate Palace timeshare. Best Western and Baymont would be most likely to feel the squeeze and get snatched up by Universal, but I don't see them renovating over just outright demolishing them. Not to say they couldn't acquire the other properties if they really wanted, with the exception of Westgate since it has the complication of timeshare. The only one I could see them potentially remodeling is the Crowne Plaza because it's the only one that somewhat resembles the format of the Universal resorts.

Yeah, that's all good analysis.

This is basically a discussion that may have relevance for the late-2030s now that Universal has enough land to build on for the next 20 years.

 

[quinnmac000]

When it comes down to it,
Currently this new resort is 1,800 acres right?

Looking at USB mostly like being two parks, a water park, entertainment complex, and hotels covering 1,000 acres with one park being 300 acres and the total cost being somewhat ~15 billion now including R&D, is it possible they will take the park designs from there and simply just replace the IPs with new ones? Could we soon be walking through a 300 acre park thats not Epcot?

 

[AlexanderMBush]

When it comes down to it,
Currently this new resort is 1,800 acres right?

Looking at USB mostly like being two parks, a water park, entertainment complex, and hotels covering 1,000 acreswith one park being 300 acres and the total cost being somewhat ~15 billion now including R&D, is it possible they will take the park designs from there and simply just replace the IPs with new ones? Could we soon be walking through a 300 acre park thats not Epcot.

I'd rather want them to go small, to allow more space for growth.

 

[quinnmac000]

I'd rather want them to go small, to allow more space for growth.

But isn't size one of the biggest downfalls of the USF, IOA, and even Volcano Bay? USF didn't have the size or enough expansion pads for them that had to continue remove and replace. Kong took up Jurassic Park expansion pad then JW was huge so that now is creating issues with potential JP expansions and for Potter than had to get rid of an entire land and two crowd eating coasters at IOA. Lastly VB capacity was suffering from long lines despite having so many attractions in a small area which already needing additional expansion asap and I'm not even sure that will help in the long run.

With all those issues, I would argue they need to go big so even if later on they decide to remove and replace, the effects of the loss is felt way less than now.

 

[Happytycho]

The buildable area is far less than 1800 acres. The largest contiguous piece will be 400-450 acres, with an additional 100 acres north of Mandarin Dr (the planned warehouses), and 150 acres split into many smaller pieces around the area. I would expect parks very similar in size to the current ones.

 

[tielo]

The buildable area is far less than 1800 acres. The largest contiguous piece will be 400-450 acres, with an additional 100 acres north of Mandarin Dr (the planned warehouses), and 150 acres split into many smaller pieces around the area. I would expect parks very similar in size to the current ones.

I feel the complete posit. I think the smaller space is a positive. Universal is learning to be creative with their space and if a ride starts lacking visitors (like the Dragon Challenge coasters, Disaster and Twister) they replace is with something that places butts in ride seats. Besides that we can agree that there are enough attraction in the parks that could use a replacement and I'm sure Universal thinks the same.

With a third (dry) park coming there is a need to keep the other 2 fresh. I think the reason areas we first thought where on the nomination to be leveled are now kept (for the time being) to function as areas that can hold new rides in the future to keep all parks worth a visit. That is smart imho.

 

[nickwilde]

I think it's worth reiterating in this thread that the land near shingle creek is not going to be touched. I'm not sure what benefit Universal has for keeping it (annual property tax write off?), but those are some of the furthest north greenspaces that feed the everglades, and they are within the federally designated floodplain, which means there is zero chance Universal puts assets there. Talk about risk on your books... and if they raised that land and made other nearby land suscepitble to flooding, they would face liability issues.

Seems like a lot of Florida has been paved over without much resistance, but when you get to that last 5-10% of wetlands, I think you start to meet some serious community resistance and engineering realities

FEMA Flood Map Service Center | Search By Address

 

[zg44]

Yeah, if you ignore the wetlands, then the reality is that the largest contiguous space of the land is somewhere around 560 acres, maybe stretchable to 580 acres if you include that extra 20 acres at the northeast intersection of Kirkman extension and Universal Blvd. which is only separated from the main resort area by the canal.

Then subtract around 120 acres that will be used for backoffice/workspace/warehouses/employees and includes all of the land north of the Mandarin extension and the northern most land close to the water treatment plant.

Basically, that gets you to 440 to 460 acres of actual resort proper.

In that 440 to 460 acres, you need to fit 2 dry parks (even if 1 is just potential space kept as a big lot), 1 water park, CityWalk 2.0, and 5-6 hotels (the deluxe and preferred level hotels at a minimum along with possibly 1-2 value hotels).

At a maximum, you're talking 250-275 acres for the 2 dry parks and CityWalk 2.0 (and transportation facilities) along with another 40 acres for the water park. That leaves you with 130-160 acres for 5-6 hotels.

That means your 2 dry parks are likely to come in around 15-20% larger than the current USF/IoA. I wouldn't plan on anything double the size of the current parks or anything like that.

 

[JungleSkip]

That means your 2 dry parks are likely to come in around 15-20% larger than the current USF/IoA. I wouldn't plan on anything double the size of the current parks or anything like that.

I think that's probably a good estimate. With a better layout/space utilization than their current parks, 120-135ish acres will feel gigantic

 

[Teebin]

What restrictions might there be for big fireworks on this new property?

 

[zg44]

What restrictions might there be for big fireworks on this new property?

It's hard to know; I'm sure Tangelo Park will object, but given that they're going to be much further from the new parks than the Turkey Lake residential areas are to USF/IoA, it should be easier for Universal to have a big fireworks show at the new properties.

I'd just guess that it's much more likely Universal will be able to do a big fireworks display at the new park. The fact that the nearby residential zones are much further from the parks should help.

 

[nickwilde]

That almost exactly describes Tokyo Disney. From Google Maps, both parks + backstage areas is almost exactly 275 acres (12m sq ft), and the total land area of the resort complex (including large swaths of surface parking) is ~550 acres. That includes 10 total hotels, a multi-level entertainment complex, train station, and ~100 acres of surface parking + a few parking garages.

I'm really interested to see how they handle the resort. Will they try Magic Kingdom-esque construction to keep utilities, delivery, and storage underground to maximize usable land (at massive cost)? Will they start out with large swaths of surface parking and move to garages only when a second dry park is built? Will the entertainment district & main park entrances face the convention center, and will there be any walkability in the resort area (e.g. covered walkways to the convention center, pedestrian friendly streetscapes, etc.). Also, will Universal have an operable transportation connection to the 'old' parks when it opens the first phase? Any kind of fixed transportation connection could easily swallow 10-20% of the total cost of construction (hundreds of millions+ if they build some kind of grade separated mass transit solution).

In any case, this will be one of the largest private construction projects in the USA when it is underway. Very exciting to watch.

 

[Nick]

I think that's probably a good estimate. With a better layout/space utilization than their current parks, 120-135ish acres will feel gigantic

Yeah, i'd love to see UOR do a park that is spaced out like Magic Kingdom but still has a lot of water elements that we walk over or pass by. Maybe i'm describing Tokyo DisneySea more than anything. A park that is spaced like that feels huge.

 

[JungleSkip]

Yeah, i'd love to see UOR do a park that is spaced out like Magic Kingdom but still has a lot of water elements that we walk over or pass by. Maybe i'm describing Tokyo DisneySea more than anything. A park that is spaced like that feels huge.

Well TDS is gigantic. It’s 176 acres. I think something with the design sensibilities of MK with an additional 10-20 acres would still feel wholly alien to the Orlando market

 

[Nick]

Well TDS is gigantic. It’s 176 acres. I think something with the design sensibilities of MK with an additional 10-20 acres would still feel wholly alien to the Orlando market

I'm not talking about it being as large acreage wise as TDS... just the feel of the park. I think going after something slightly similar to MK is probably the way to go however. What do you use as the weenie of the park entrance though? Sort of the Cinderella Castle, Spaceship Earth or Tree of Life of this park.

 

[JungleSkip]

I'm not talking about it being as large acreage wise as TDS... just the feel of the park. I think going after something slightly similar to MK is probably the way to go however. What do you use as the weenie of the park entrance though? Sort of the Cinderella Castle, Spaceship Earth or Tree of Life of this park.

Honestly? I'd do a mountain. Maybe even a Mountain/Castle like Minas Tirith should they actually get LOTR. I don't know. But I think a mountain would work really well as a focal point.

 

[Nick]

Honestly? I'd do a mountain. Maybe even a Mountain/Castle like Minas Tirith should they actually get LOTR. I don't know. But I think a mountain would work really well as a focal point.

It could work, but they just built a Volcano as a focal point, which looks stunning, but doing something similar may confuse guests.