Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[graspthesun]

Need to throw some cold water on the Six Flags/DC dream here. WB has a severance clause in their licensing with Six Flags. If Six Flags gets bought out, they lose the rights to Looney Tunes and DC.

 

[TDBLMT]

There's a restaurant in Milwaukee and Chicago called SafeHouse that is really neat. I'd love a concept like that at Universal.

There's several in downtown Orlando - a 15 minute uber from any Universal hotel.

 

[zg44]

Need to throw some cold water on the Six Flags/DC dream here. WB has a severance clause in their licensing with Six Flags. If Six Flags gets bought out, they lose the rights to Looney Tunes and DC.

WB isn't going to turn down several million a year in "free licensing money" for nothing.

Most likely, in a Six Flags buyout scenario, there's a restriction put on the rights (i.e. same cost but rights are only usable in Six Flags until 2027 at the same price), or an expansion of the rights (any Universal/Six Flags park can use them through a longer contract period like 2040 for a higher price).

That clause is there to protect WB in case a rival studio (Disney or Universal) purchases Six Flags, but it's not necessarily going to result in an ending of the rights. WB won't keep the US rights out of circulation so much as they'll just grab extra money/extort the new owner.

 

[GAcoaster]

For the right price ANY agreement can be renegotiated.

 

[Disneyhead]

Six Flags has DC through 2027 and Looney Tunes until 2028. If another TV/Media company buys Six Flags, they lose the rights. WB has the option to kill the deal if Six Flags doesn't add or maintain the attractions to WB's satisfaction. Which Six Flags has done. So not an option. Also WB can just buy out the rights that has a yearly depreciated value, meaning that the closer to the end of the contract, the less costly that would be to do.

 

[zg44]

For the right price ANY agreement can be renegotiated.

Yeah, I think the only exception to that is if it was Disney thinking about a Six Flags takeover.

In that case, they'd probably just cut the DC/Looney Toons rights agreements and negotiate with Universal or Cedar Fair or SeaWorld, since they probably wouldn't want Marvel's corporate parent having the DC rights.

With any other takeover, they'd probably just renegotiate the rights (i.e. extract more $) and allow the rights to stay.

 

[fryoj]

Yeah, IF Uni were to buy Six Flags, they'd have the WB deal, both for keeping it in Six Flags and expanding to the Uni parks, negotiated before they ever signed the contract with Six Flags. They have a good relationship, no reason to think there'd be any problems here.

 

[Disneyhead]

If Uni buys Six Flags, they lose the rights. If any media company buys Six Flags, they lose the rights.

 

[youhow2]

Why in the hell would comcast buy Six Flags? If anything, I could see them buying the SEAS parks... But, just seeing how the parks division operates, makes me think they would prefer to build new parks from the ground up rather than buy old parks, Also, I just don't see The parks division with their hands full... Slow and steady wins the race... Of course, with a spirited sprint at the end...

 

[Joel]

If Uni buys Six Flags, they lose the rights. If any media company buys Six Flags, they lose the rights.

They lose the rights at that price, but couldn't they negotiate the rights back? I imagine the relationship between WB and Universal is pretty good based off Harry Potter.

 

[JungleSkip]

You guys, Comcast isn't buying Six Flags

 

[Mad Dog]

/Agreed. Makes no business sense.

 

[UK-Trigg]

Anyone any knowledge of budgets for a new park?

Interested in what kind $$$s a new park would cost and how on earth it is budgeted, best guess would be each land is a project therefore each gets a budget of its own.

Must be some huge figures in play here, with line after line on the budget sheet, intriguing stuff.

 

[zg44]

From Six Flags' annual reports:
"We have the exclusive right on a long-term basis to theme park usage of the Warner Bros. and DC Comics animated characters throughout the United States (except for the Las Vegas metropolitan area), Canada, Mexico and certain other countries."
"Warner Bros. and Hanna-Barbera have the right to terminate their license agreements under certain circumstances, including if any persons involved in the movie or television industries obtain control of us or, in the case of Warner Bros., upon a default under the Subordinated Indemnity Agreement."

Warner has the right to terminate, but of course money can overrule their exercise of termination.

Regardless, it'd be much cheaper and easier for Universal to just have "and Orlando" inserted as an exception alongside Las Vegas in the US than anything else when the DC/Looney Tunes agreement comes up for negotiation around 2026.

That's really the point of interest here for Universal. A takeover of Six Flags probably isn't in the cards in a general sense, but I'd be interested in seeing if Universal could go to Warner about grabbing Orlando/Florida rights for DC when their Six Flags agreement is being renegotiated. An exception for Orlando/Florida can be added just as it was for Las Vegas.

 

[zg44]

Anyone any knowledge of budgets for a new park?

Interested in what kind $$$s a new park would cost and how on earth it is budgeted, best guess would be each land is a project therefore each gets a budget of its own.

Must be some huge figures in play here, with line after line on the budget sheet, intriguing stuff.

Volcano Bay was estimated to cost around $600 million by Nomura, though other estimates were a bit lower around $400 million according to bizjournal.

For the South Resort, my estimates would be around:

$2-2.5 billion for the dry park (the top 4 lands averaging around $200-250 million each with some cheaper lands as well probably coming in around $100-150 million each). Another $400-600 million for the water park.

$200-300 million for the new CityWalk infrastructure/layout, $600 million for the first batch of 3-5 hotels.

All summed up, that's basically $3-3.5 billion for the dry park, water park, City Walk infrastructure, and 3-5 hotels. I've mentioned before, but Comcast can cover the costs easily through cash and/or debt. (The hotels would be put on the Loews-Universal joint venture balance sheet).

 

[Nick]

There's a point where speculation and insanity meet and I think we may have met that point.

Honestly, when you guys type out these posts, do you honestly in your heart believe Universal/Comcast are going to actually do it? I'm not even thinking of a potential 4th dry park until I walk in the gates of the park on the south plot.

 

[Disneyhead]

I rarely count anything out no matter how insane it sounds. That said, Comcast is not buying Six Flags.

Potter expanding into Jaws sounded insane. Everyone said Nintendo would never work with Uni. And here we are.

I could see some advantages to having the 4th gate be something like a Warner Bros. Movie Park.

1. A plethora of popular IP such as DC Comics, Looney Tunes, Scooby-Doo, Tom & Jerry, The Flintstones, LotR/Hobbit, Blade Runner, The Matrix, Mad Max, Mortal Kombat, Austin Powers, Gremlins etc.

2. It could be where the resort keeps it's BIG coasters.

3. More resources to move faster.

4. Recoup some investment costs through real estate lease, percentage of merchandise sales, etc.

 

[zg44]

There's a point where speculation and insanity meet and I think we may have met that point.

Honestly, when you guys type out these posts, do you honestly in your heart believe Universal/Comcast are going to actually do it? I'm not even thinking of a potential 4th dry park until I walk in the gates of the park on the south plot.

If I had to put odds on it:

100% guaranteed to happen:
3rd dry park
2nd CityWalk
3-5 hotels with 4,000-5,000 rooms

They have the 1) land, 2) demand exists (i.e. USF/IoA approaching 10 million guests a year), and 3) additional IPs like Nintendo and possibly LOTR to anchor.


Next tier is around 80-90% likely to happen:
2nd water park
2-3 more hotels with another 2,000 rooms

As long as everything works in the initial rollout (as it should) and there's no weakening in demand at Volcano Bay, this phase will happen.


The speculative tier: odds between 0% and 50% of happening over next 20-25 years:
4th dry park
3-5 hotels with 4,000-6,000 rooms

This depends entirely on how successful the then-current resort is... if USF/IoA attendance starts falling, it won't happen.

Also the land may not exist for this phase until Lockheed decides to move from its 300 acre plot nearby, so land may be an issue unless they plan for it ahead of time.

But IF USF/IoA/3rd park are all at 10 million + attendance with no declines, and IF the hotels are all running at 90% capacity, and if the land needed (120 acres for the park and 100+ acres for the hotels) exists, then this phase probably will happen.

 

[Joel]

There's a point where speculation and insanity meet and I think we may have met that point.

Honestly, when you guys type out these posts, do you honestly in your heart believe Universal/Comcast are going to actually do it? I'm not even thinking of a potential 4th dry park until I walk in the gates of the park on the south plot.

No, I don't believe this would ever happen. I was justing wondering how the licensing would work.

 

[fryoj]

If I had to put odds on it:

100% guaranteed to happen:
3rd dry park
2nd CityWalk
3-5 hotels with 4,000-5,000 rooms

They have the 1) land, 2) demand exists (i.e. USF/IoA approaching 10 million guests a year), and 3) additional IPs like Nintendo and possibly LOTR to anchor.


Next tier is around 80-90% likely to happen:
2nd water park
2-3 more hotels with another 2,000 rooms

As long as everything works in the initial rollout (as it should) and there's no weakening in demand at Volcano Bay, this phase will happen.


The speculative tier: odds between 0% and 50% of happening over next 20-25 years:
4th dry park
3-5 hotels with 4,000-6,000 rooms

This depends entirely on how successful the then-current resort is... if USF/IoA attendance starts falling, it won't happen.

Also the land may not exist for this phase until Lockheed decides to move from its 300 acre plot nearby, so land may be an issue unless they plan for it ahead of time.

But IF USF/IoA/3rd park are all at 10 million + attendance with no declines, and IF the hotels are all running at 90% capacity, and if the land needed (120 acres for the park and 100+ acres for the hotels) exists, then this phase probably will happen.

The only problem is the whole 4th dry park could either be 100% or almost 0% depending on their plans for the layout of the new property. I wouldn't rule out a layout similar to the North Complex with 2 medium sized dry parks and a wet park rather than just one large park. With two parks, you get to charge more cause everyone needs hoppers. Thats a ~ 50% increase in ticket sales over putting everything in one park.