Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[JungleSkip]

Jeez is absolutely amazing how one man can own all of that land in such a valuable area and still be going bankrupt... (I believe I read he just lost his jet due to non-payment on the loan a few months ago)

Pretty sure he thought he'd be able to flip it and make more money.

 

[zg44]

Jeez is absolutely amazing how one man can own all of that land in such a valuable area and still be going bankrupt... (I believe I read he just lost his jet due to non-payment on the loan a few months ago)

Is he LMC Properties too? That appears to be the last major land owner in the area outside of him and redevelopment. Also, any word if Universal is the theme park operator interested in the Artegon site and the property to the south of it? Thats another 100+ acres I believe.

I believe LMC is Lockheed Martin's additional/undeveloped expansion land (just going off the LMC = Lockheed Martin Corporation). Maybe Universal can buy that off them if they don't plan to use it anytime soon; I'm sure they'll ask if they can take that at $275k an acre like the 100 acres that they just bought.

As for why Stan Thomas is going bankrupt: he put a lot of debt on his holdings before the 2007-2008 real estate crash; he made some very wise property purchases but then followed them up with far too expensive purchases. He's done this almost everywhere:

In Orlando, he got Vivendi's 1,800 acres for $70 million (an astoundingly good price in 2003 even though it had some expensive cleanup requirements from Lockheed's former missile testing on the land), but then he followed up with some massive $300m+ purchases of some questionable properties at the peak of the boom in 2005. And of course, then real estate markets crashed in 2007, and there was no way for him to support the debt payments on those other purchases. Colony bought the debt for under $100m and then foreclosed on the land.

If he'd have just stuck to the original Vivendi land, he wouldn't have gotten into this mess, but then again Universal wouldn't have been able to buy it back on the cheap ($130m after the foreclosure for 475 acres).

 

[RichOBJ]

Pretty sure he thought he'd be able to flip it and make more money.

And in the right market, he may have been able to. But circumstances went sour. Recession hit. People stop building. Universal Blvd was for a while No Man's Land.

By the time visitation recovered, people got hungry for land, people started to build I-Drive and show interest in more growth etc. etc. etc. ... he may have been too far to recover. Plus, maybe people saw blood in the water and waited until it defaulted.

 

[Joel]

The wetlands are shingle creek, one of the more important ones for the everglades -- you can follow the wetlands area all the way to Lake Okeechobee., source is even further north (it goes right by Mall at Millenia and points north near John Young Parkway). That's on the eastern side of the land, and on the north side of Sand Lake also.

There's also the treatment plant between the creek and the new land they just bought. Basically the wooded area with the creek running down the middle is mostly wetlands, any development they do in that area will be extremely limited.

Lockheed moving (It's kinda getting choked out by tourist stuff anyway) would add another large area to it. That's less likely in the short term, but seems inevitable looking all around it.

Shingle creek isn't in any of the purchasable lands though right? That's to the right of the land Stan owns

 

[Mad Dog]

Real Estate speculators like Stan Thomas,on a whole are a pretty motley crew. Flim flams , con jobs, bankruptcies, non payment of bills & services are endemic to real estate speculators. Generally they're using other peoples money, bank loans, leverage, fake or manipulated appraisals to generate funds in hopes of making a big score. No tears shed for those developers when they go under.

 

[zg44]

Purple = Universal
Yellow + Baby Blue = Stan Thomas

There's the new land before the Nov. 2 mediation. Lockheed is definitely getting surrounded by the next resort (which makes me think they won't sell their expansion parcel because that would mean they're surrounded on all sides by Universal.

Now that Universal has the 101 acres above, the FQP properties are that much more important in any transaction between Stan Thomas and Universal. Obviously, a lot of the yellow land isn't buildable, but Stan Thomas probably wants to offload all of the unusable land in any transaction that involves the buildable land...

 

[Joel]

Purple = Universal
Yellow + Baby Blue = Stan Thomas

There's the new land before the Nov. 2 mediation. Lockheed is definitely getting surrounded by the next resort (which makes me think they won't sell their expansion parcel because that would mean they're surrounded on all sides by Universal.

Now that Universal has the 101 acres above, the FQP properties are that much more important in any transaction between Stan Thomas and Universal. Obviously, a lot of the yellow land isn't buildable, but Stan Thomas probably wants to offload all of the unusable land in any transaction that involves the buildable land...

So interesting how land parcels are cut up, such weird shapes.

 

[GadgetGuru]

I think it's important to remember that wetlands can be developed on. There's regulations in place that allow companies to develop wetlands if they restore the same amount of former wetland elsewhere. Disney has a nature perserve outside of Orlando for this exact reason. Disney restores the wetlands there and gets to develop the wetland area in the resort [1]. Universal could be buying wetlands elsewhere in order to develop this land.

[1] Disney to preserve 3,000 acres of wetlands so they can destroy wetlands closer to park | Blogs

 

[Scott W.]

I think it's important to remember that wetlands can be developed on. There's regulations in place that allow companies to develop wetlands if they restore the same amount of former wetland elsewhere. Disney has a nature perserve outside of Orlando for this exact reason. Disney restores the wetlands there and gets to develop the wetland area in the resort [1]. Universal could be buying wetlands elsewhere in order to develop this land.

[1] Disney to preserve 3,000 acres of wetlands so they can destroy wetlands closer to park | Blogs

I've known about this regulation but I always thought it had to be on the same parcel or connected parcel of property. That's really interesting.

 

[Happytycho]

That's literally the land that I referenced in the other thread yesterday... wow.

Major credit to you for calling out the exception to my statement and having come true just a day later.

I meant the convention crowd in that the convention center is right across the street

While it is right across the street, the nearest part of the convention center is still 1-2 miles away from the new universal land meaning they will need to set up an effective transportation plan if they are going to fully take advantage of the convention crowds. I believe Universal and OCCC have worked together before so it wouldn't surprise me if they could come up with something which is beneficial to both parties.

There are already plans in place to extend Kirkman all the way to Destination Parkway. Theres hasn't been a timeline for it, but they have the right of ways already.

The Kirkman extension is almost entirely in UCPM III property and I'm not sure if the right of way is fully secured, but I think the big hangup is just getting the money to build it. Far more interesting is what will happen with the Mandarin Drive extension because that would run right through the middle of the land universal just bought and I'm not sure if they want a road splitting up that area.

The one I'm curious about is the 179 acre plot on the other side of Sand Lake While not directly connected, one of the other UCMP properties would allow back door access to the new property. So I could see it being a remote hotel area line the WNW plot for Uni or I could see Thomas keeping that for development.

This is pure speculation on my part, but I imagine that if that land was suitable for large development the county would be taxing on a valuation higher than $100/acre.

 

[GadgetGuru]

I've known about this regulation but I always thought it had to be on the same parcel or connected parcel of property. That's really interesting.

Apparently, part of the Nature Preserve was bought in order to allow expansion at MCO too. I'd imagine you couldn't go more than a couple counties out for this regulation to work, but I'm just speculating

 

[GoUCFKnights]

Major credit to you for calling out the exception to my statement and having come true just a day later.

While it is right across the street, the nearest part of the convention center is still 1-2 miles away from the new universal land meaning they will need to set up an effective transportation plan if they are going to fully take advantage of the convention crowds. I believe Universal and OCCC have worked together before so it wouldn't surprise me if they could come up with something which is beneficial to both parties.

The Kirkman extension is almost entirely in UCPM III property and I'm not sure if the right of way is fully secured, but I think the big hangup is just getting the money to build it. Far more interesting is what will happen with the Mandarin Drive extension because that would run right through the middle of the land universal just bought and I'm not sure if they want a road splitting up that area.

This is pure speculation on my part, but I imagine that if that land was suitable for large development the county would be taxing on a valuation higher than $100/acre.

I imagine for the Kirkman extension if Universal wants it built, they will get it built. I know some areas allow developers to pay for public roads that are on the plan to be built, and then give them a credit on their taxes or impact fees for the cost of building it, so they can get a bit of control to make sure it happens. The path of it has clearly been picked out already.

Also, looking at how unbuildable that land is, it seems hard to believe Stan Thomas has any real desire to keep the land, or at least not the land owned by UCPM. Hopefully it settles next week.

 

[JoeCamel]

Through all of this I hear no mention of what Lockheed dumped on the land over 70 years. I know the first time Universal bought this they spent 10+ million cleaning up the dumps in and around it. They did what they could for the leaks from the dumps into the groundwater but I have to believe there is plenty left and part of the development will be cleaning up all the nasty stuff.
I wonder how much is still on Lockheed property if they are looking towards acquiring it in the distant future.

I have to think there will be major costs bringing this up to today's levels but along with billions in infrastructure I guess that is a small fraction.

 

[Mad Dog]

Through all of this I hear no mention of what Lockheed dumped on the land over 70 years. I know the first time Universal bought this they spent 10+ million cleaning up the dumps in and around it. They did what they could for the leaks from the dumps into the groundwater but I have to believe there is plenty left and part of the development will be cleaning up all the nasty stuff.
I wonder how much is still on Lockheed property if they are looking towards acquiring it in the distant future.

I have to think there will be major costs bringing this up to today's levels but along with billions in infrastructure I guess that is a small fraction.

They can have a REAL "Walking Dead" attraction if they miss anything in the cleanup.

 

[zg44]

Through all of this I hear no mention of what Lockheed dumped on the land over 70 years. I know the first time Universal bought this they spent 10+ million cleaning up the dumps in and around it. They did what they could for the leaks from the dumps into the groundwater but I have to believe there is plenty left and part of the development will be cleaning up all the nasty stuff.
I wonder how much is still on Lockheed property if they are looking towards acquiring it in the distant future.

I have to think there will be major costs bringing this up to today's levels but along with billions in infrastructure I guess that is a small fraction.

Yeah, the last time it was mentioned I believe it was a 10-15 year cleanup remaining around 2004 for all the missile testing etc. but given bankruptcy and financing issues; that may have stalled at some point.

But it may not be finished yet so who knows. You're definitely right though that finishing the cleanup will likely be a part of this and may extend the building process by at least a year or a few over what normal building might look like...

 

[captainmoch]

My hopes for Universal Orlando South:
- One (dry) theme park, that's the biggest and most sprawling of the three UOR dry parks.
- One water theme park, with a separate theme from Volcano Bay that fixes some of the issues that park has.
- A transportation hub that features two more large parking garages for this side of the resort, as well as some sort of raised transportation system to the North resort.
- A raised walkway from the convention center to the resort for that extra $$$.
- A secondary CityWalk (VillageWalk?) that's basically in the center of it all; connecting the parks, the transportation hub
- As many hotels as they can stuff in there.

Personally, I hope they don't try to do a 4th dry park as that caused so many issues when WDW did it.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Thinking about it more, I have to think this is going to be the ideal list for Universal at once in the terms of the South initially..

• 1 Dry Park (with the size about 85 to 108 acres, heavily themed to Diagon/Disneysea level)
• 1 Water Park (with the size about 38 acres; and improving on the mistakes from Volcano Bay; and tackling a different theme)
• Large Entertainment Complex, with an overarching theme.
• Four Hotels, with one hotel being right next (or over the entrance) to the new dry park
• Transportation Hub with a parking structure of 7,000 parking spaces

 

[WAJAS]

I imagine for the Kirkman extension if Universal wants it built, they will get it built. I know some areas allow developers to pay for public roads that are on the plan to be built, and then give them a credit on their taxes or impact fees for the cost of building it, so they can get a bit of control to make sure it happens. The path of it has clearly been picked out already.

Also, looking at how unbuildable that land is, it seems hard to believe Stan Thomas has any real desire to keep the land, or at least not the land owned by UCPM. Hopefully it settles next week.

The County has already mentioned that if a significant development occurred in that area then funds would be allocated appropriately to extend Kirkland and Mandarin ahead of the current schedule.

 

[Andysol]

Absolutely fascinating.

This is a time we will never have at universal again, most likely. It’s absolutely fluid. Anyone attempting to put a timeline on this is just wasting their time until things settle out. Even Tom Williams doesn’t know the right now. I’m sure they have a plan a, b, c or d- and even that can change after arbitration here in a couple days. To be a fly on the wall and see the dozens of options would be interesting.

Rumors are pretty useless right now unless the ground has started moving because everything was hinging on these 100 acres- and now everything is hinging on arbitration. Just goes to show how quick things can change like @Disneyhead dropping the Pokémon news. But that might change with the 100 and be totally useless info now. Or not.


I’d love to fast forward 10 years from now- not even for the IPs or rides, etc. But I’m fascinated to see how in the world they are going to connect everything and how the infrastructure will work. Crazy to think I’ll be at least 40 by the time this thing I’d ready and I’ll have a kid that’s almost driving.

 

[paintervision]

One theme park, one water park, CityWalk 2.0, a few hotels... and I would like to see a Ferrari World mini-park like at PortAventura. Or think of it as a better version of the Andretti complex that opened over there a few weeks ago.

Ideally, you’d have three major parks, and three minor parks in total (including existing UOR). The major parks would see lots of continual investment (concurrent projects or “one new ride per year” at the majors), while the minor parks are built mostly complete (or like VB with a few options for expansion, but not expected to grow too much in size or break the overall theme).

If done correctly, a hotel or two and the Ferrari Park would be built first (giant 300-ft coaster as it’s marquee attraction), then go on to build the major park, CityWalk, more hotels, etc. Water park would come last. If they really wanted a fourth park, Lockheed is left as an option to connect that land, but that’s going to be decades down the road. But I’d really rather not see two major dry parks here, side by side... they wouldn’t open at the same time, leaving a lot of land on the table in a big chunk for the future.