Yearly 150 mill Investment for UOR

[shiekra38]

And that scares the Disney fanboy to death. Just read the baseless and blind defending of the mouse. People are going to have to start waking up. Universal is giving Disney a run for its money, and winning. People have finally started taking notice. Will Universal ever over take Magic Kingdom in attendance? No. But it can chip away slowly at the attendance figures of the other four parks. And THAT scares Disney fanboys to death.

Everything becomes stale sooner or later..The first time I walked into the WWoHP I was next to a semi-big HP fan (she had read the books and watched the movies), her anticipation to go into the world was even more than mine I would say, as we walked in my jaw dropped and I was astounded at the amazing addition that lay before me..I looked over an the girl (I say girl, she was 17 or 18) was in tears hugging her mom saying "This is honestly the best day of my life"...I have never seen that happen in a theme park before, ever..
Everyone also said the Roman Empire would never die...and yet it is gone

 

[Scarletwebslingr]

If Universal ever surpasses MK, it won't likely be in our lifetime, haha. I'm always glad to see Orlando beefing up. I live here and it's good for jobs and keeps things lively. What Uni and Disney have going on is healthy and I'd love to see them both stretch their muscles more.

 

[shiekra38]

If Universal ever surpasses MK, it won't likely be in our lifetime, haha. I'm always glad to see Orlando beefing up. I live here and it's good for jobs and keeps things lively. What Uni and Disney have going on is healthy and I'd love to see them both stretch their muscles more.

Indeed, although I always root for the underdog..healthy competition is always a good thing..

 

[ShiftyPig]

Do you have any evidence or sources to support your claim that universal is ONLY putting the money to maintenance and Potter in the next five years? Have you considered the amount of additional profit Potter is currently bringing in and will continue to in that five year period? Or are you just rooting for Disney no matter what is actually happening? because your post seems very similar to those I have read in the last couple years from nervous Disneyheads, no offense.

I was going strictly off the quote in the article that is referenced in the thread title. The analyst, who I promise knows better than either of us, said that Comcast is going to spend around $150 million in each of the next five years while the previous owners spent the minimum, which was $50m. I'm reading that as basic upkeep + $500 million in new attractions. Given the original WWoHP is generally cited as costing $265m, that gets you a WWoHP at USH and a new Potter Amityville in the next five years. Or a patch of dirt in Amityville and a Uni-sized Next Gen. $150mil a year really doesn't buy that much. The trackwork alone for Big Thunder was what, 9m?

I'm surprised that nobody pointed out the massive mischaracterization in the article regarding profitability. Uni had operating cash flow of $157m in the quarter while Disney had operating *profit* of $222m. But operating profit is EBIT, which is after subtracting depreciation (operating cash flow doesn't count dep exp), meaning the apples to apples comparison would be $222 + about $290m in depreciation expense. So over three times the cash flow of Uni. That doesn't even take into account cap ex, which I honestly think we could make the case that it would be substantially higher for Disney in Q1 given their ongoing projects versus dirt moving at USF, new projectors at Spiderman, and an exact Spiderman clone at USH.

If Disney was worried, they would be building decks in Downtown Disney instead of sodding the ground and letting it sit. I'm not rooting for either, it's great the Uni turned things around. But I'm intrigued by your vague assertion of "what is actually happening." Uni merely returned to where it should have been all along. Uni was tanking badly and it took the greatest theme park expansion in the history of mankind (TM) to get back to 2004 attendance levels. By every objective metric, Disney dwarfs Uni. Until Uni has a 10 resorts charging $35 a head for buffet/character dinners that are booked solid 180 days in advance, the fact that Uniheads tout IoA's per capita spending as some sort of turning point is just plain laughable. Park experience-wise, I'm indifferent. Performance-wise, there's not rational argument that puts the two in the same league.

 

[Disneyhead]

I believe that the WWOHP in Hollywood will be significantly less expensive than the original. The R&D is a very expensive part of attraction development, and that has already been done. And they will be saving money by buying in bulk because they are also building one in Osaka.

That said, I do believe that IOA will receive a smaller attraction before Potter: The Sequel opens in USF.

But yes, Disney does have a HUGE bankroll to do with as they please. Unfortunately, Disney seems intent on letting the parks languish while they become Condo Kingdom. But to be fair, I think that TDO has started to correct their course and we have seen an amazing amount of infrastructure repair. For almost a year Main Street has been under tarps. Space, Splash, and BTMRR have seen significant refurbs. The MK is actually looking better than it has in years. And after they get done with the infrastructure, I am hearing that the Entertainment Dept. will be getting some funds next for a new Daytime Parade and replacement for Wishes (about fricken' time on both accounts).

But that GIANT bankroll Disney has is not going to look all that big when they get down to brass tacks on replacing the monorail fleet, which is already 3 years past it's projected lifespan. And the THOUSANDS of mid-90s hotel rooms that are badly in need of a total redo (think wallpaper, carpet and furniture). I have heard that the number being tossed around just to bring WDW back to it's former glory is in the $4B range. And that number almost gave Iger a heart attack.

 

[JungleSkip]

the fact that Uniheads tout IoA's per capita spending as some sort of turning point is just plain laughable.

No, it's not. Those numbers have turned Disney's head. In more ways than one.

 

[UNIrd]

No, it's not. Those numbers have turned Disney's head. In more ways than one.

Agreed. The gap between those profit figures are not that big considering Disney has double the number of parks and water parks, plus, let's be honest, 10x the stores, restaurants, etc.

 

[Thor]

Everything becomes stale sooner or later..The first time I walked into the WWoHP I was next to a semi-big HP fan (she had read the books and watched the movies), her anticipation to go into the world was even more than mine I would say, as we walked in my jaw dropped and I was astounded at the amazing addition that lay before me..I looked over an the girl (I say girl, she was 17 or 18) was in tears hugging her mom saying "This is honestly the best day of my life"...I have never seen that happen in a theme park before, ever..
Everyone also said the Roman Empire would never die...and yet it is gone

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it happen. I just don't think Universal can ever attract 17 million guests into their parks. At least, not just yet. Like Scarlet said, probably never in our lifetimes. But, that doesn't mean IOA/Universal cannot surpass DAK or DHS, which I'd love to see happen. The fanboys heads would explode.

 

[ShiftyPig]

Agreed. The gap between those profit figures are not that big considering Disney has double the number of parks and water parks, plus, let's be honest, 10x the stores, restaurants, etc.

Nah, the gap is about what one would expect. The incremental benefit from the third and fourth park aren't anything close to what the first two produce. Ignoring all the ticketing intricacies like AP's and all, the incremental revenue from people on the fourth/fifth/sixth days of their Magic Your Way ticket is $8 while I would guess that the majority of Uni guests are on 1/2 day passes and certainly not contributing only $8 in incremental revenue. Producing three and a half times the cash flows on three and a half times the human turnover is about right. If Uni built a third park, they would also need a ridiculous amount of merch locations and other revenue (food/hotel) sources for it to make sense. But they don't have the money or the land so it's a moot point.

The first 12 months (June to June) after WWoHP drew around 13.5m between the two. That's why I'm interested to see the 2011 report in June because we haven't seen any sort of Potter versus Potter data yet. I think we're looking at a new normal of 6.5m per year at each, which means an unrealistic five consecutive years of 8% organic growth to catch AK/DHS, assuming they remain stagnant during that time. The test is what Uni can come up with around 2016 when the two parks are maxed out at a generous new normal of 8m guests per year after Potter2 and they have nothing left to build on except 10 acres behind MiB and 100 undesirable acres out by the interstate. Just really don't think $750 mil over three parks in five years is anything remotely close to impressive. But I guess when Uni sold off the Lockheed Martin land, the bar for "taking the fight to Disney" got set a lot lower and matching profitability on a quarter of the scale is now winning.

 

[ReelJustice]

I don't want Universal to ever have more than 2 parks. Disney has 4 and can't/won't finish/fix them. Universal has plenty of room for growth within. Toon Lagoon, Lost Continent, Fear Factor etc can and should all be repurposed.

 

[Disneyhead]

While all park operators want higher attendance, I believe that at this point Uni is more focused on crowd distribution and extending the stay, in park and on property.

 

[Scarletwebslingr]

Indeed, although I always root for the underdog..healthy competition is always a good thing..

Shamu appreciates your business then, haha.

 

[Jakemeister]

Shamu appreciates your business then, haha.

Fun Spot

 

[jtsalien]

Fun Spot

Old Town :thumbs:

 

[Jakemeister]

Old Town :thumbs:

Well played. I literally lol'd.

 

[Octobers Fade]

Old Town :thumbs:

Dinosaur World :thumbs:

 

[UNIrd]

While all park operators want higher attendance, I believe that at this point Uni is more focused on crowd distribution and extending the stay, in park and on property.

Exactly, which is what Disneyland was after 11 years ago with the addition of DCA and the creation of the Disneyland Resort. It looks like they should be (are?) seeing that come true this year, though.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

I was going strictly off the quote in the article that is referenced in the thread title. The analyst, who I promise knows better than either of us, said that Comcast is going to spend around $150 million in each of the next five years while the previous owners spent the minimum, which was $50m. I'm reading that as basic upkeep + $500 million in new attractions. Given the original WWoHP is generally cited as costing $265m, that gets you a WWoHP at USH and a new Potter Amityville in the next five years. Or a patch of dirt in Amityville and a Uni-sized Next Gen. $150mil a year really doesn't buy that much. The trackwork alone for Big Thunder was what, 9m?

I'm surprised that nobody pointed out the massive mischaracterization in the article regarding profitability. Uni had operating cash flow of $157m in the quarter while Disney had operating *profit* of $222m. But operating profit is EBIT, which is after subtracting depreciation (operating cash flow doesn't count dep exp), meaning the apples to apples comparison would be $222 + about $290m in depreciation expense. So over three times the cash flow of Uni. That doesn't even take into account cap ex, which I honestly think we could make the case that it would be substantially higher for Disney in Q1 given their ongoing projects versus dirt moving at USF, new projectors at Spiderman, and an exact Spiderman clone at USH.

If Disney was worried, they would be building decks in Downtown Disney instead of sodding the ground and letting it sit. I'm not rooting for either, it's great the Uni turned things around. But I'm intrigued by your vague assertion of "what is actually happening." Uni merely returned to where it should have been all along. Uni was tanking badly and it took the greatest theme park expansion in the history of mankind (TM) to get back to 2004 attendance levels. By every objective metric, Disney dwarfs Uni. Until Uni has a 10 resorts charging $35 a head for buffet/character dinners that are booked solid 180 days in advance, the fact that Uniheads tout IoA's per capita spending as some sort of turning point is just plain laughable. Park experience-wise, I'm indifferent. Performance-wise, there's not rational argument that puts the two in the same league.

NOWHERE in the article does the analyst imply in anyway that the Comcast money will ONLY be spent on Potter. Now, Will the overall potter expansions and additions cost more than the Comcast yearly investments stated in the article? Possibly. HOWEVER, unless you have some way of proving that Universal doesn't already have money set aside for Potter expansions then you can't assume that this is solely where the Comcast investments are going.

The rest of your post is somewhat confusing as a reply to mine as I never once made an attempt to argue that universal was in anyway comparable to Disney in anything related to attendance or $$...I was merely pondering universal's potential profit from potter and their future plans with the Comcast investment. I never said anything about Disney......?

Side note: (and this is NOT directly aimed at shiftypig because he has claimed to be indifferent on the matter) One thing that really bothers me is the constant attendance and $$ arguments from hardcore Disney fans against Universal. Is this why you like Disney more? Because they make more money? Because more people go there? Is bigger better? Truth is, we see Disney fans making these arguments because right now, it's really the only argument they have. You don't see any Disney fans debating the quality of work Universal produced with Potter because they are quite frankly impressed by it, whether they admit it or not. And this is why we are starting to see these arguments more frequently because they are starting to realize that universal is becoming a contender in the business and they are turning heads.

NOW, back to your post, you can talk numbers all day long but reality is: overtime, even if it is a long time, the park with the best overall experience is going to EVENTUALLY end up on top. I'm not saying that Universal is going to buy out Disney one day. Im just saying that people go to parks for the experience, not because of how big it is or how many other people go there. And in my opinion universal is creating a better guest experience in this particular point in time with Potter.

 

[JungleSkip]

So yea, IoA's attendance went up 30% again. Up to 7,674,000 from 5,949,000. That's a pretty dang impressive jump, and the second year in a row with a 30% increase.

Still gonna tell me Disney isn't paying attention?

 

[UNIrd]

Were those figures just released? New thread please!