Avatar: The Way Of Water

[OLSinFLA]

This is my thought process as well simply because these are extremely expensive movies with breakevens at $1.5B minimum. TWOW will hit that, but I think they'll want to wait and see if there's any noticeable drop off between 2 & 3 before handing Cameron two more big checks. My thought as I believe I stated above is we'll see 4 & 5 pushed back a few cycles to around 2028 and 2030 since filming these movies (presumably back to back if they happen) will take awhile anyway

Then again, Iger could surprise and approve 4 & 5 now so that they can get to filming those if he deems this one enough of a success, although I think they probably would like to see it cross $2B in order for them to do that after this movie (which is on the higher end of where it might ultimately end it's run at). It is currently holding on very strong though and does maintain a shot at $2B although i'm still doubtful. The specific end I see in sights is getting a bit higher though.

There's been some talk that the quoted budget also contained part of the budget for 3&4 in which case Cameron fudged a bit...

 

[Evan]

There's been some talk that the quoted budget also contained part of the budget for 3&4 in which case Cameron fudged a bit...

I’ve heard many say the real break even point was 1 billion. saying James comments were misquoted or an exaggeration.

 

[Nick]

I’ve heard many say the real break even point was 1 billion. saying James comments were misquoted or an exaggeration.

Analysts think $1.5B. He was talking about domestic films, so the number he was throwing out was probably for around $800M-$1B. Of course the studios take some profit which is where the $1.5 number comes from.

 

[Evan]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Office

deadline.com

It was another $20M day for James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, so big that it was the biggest regular box office Thursday of the year after the sequel’s Dec. 22 take of $14.6M and Top Gun: Maverick‘s June 2 gross. The movie’s running total is $358M stateside with a 3-day expected to be around $50M and will cross the $400M threshold on New Year’s Day per box office sources. New Year’s Eve Saturday isn’t expected to be as depressed as Christmas Eve was a week ago.

To date, the Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm movie has the following daily 2022 records: top and second grossing Thursday, the 2nd and 3rd highest Mondays of the year, the 1st and 2nd highest Tuesdays, and 1st and 3rd highest Wednesday.

Total Thursday global was $67.9M. Overseas B.O. total cume is $810.6M –surpassing Top Gun: Maverick‘s $770M to become the No. 1 international release of 2022 and No. 2 MPA title abroad in the pandemic era. Ongoing worldwide total for Avatar 2 is $1.168 billion.

We hear Comscore is down this AM, preventing others from reporting numbers. Disney didn’t have any problems, clearly.

We’ll have more updates for you as they come.

 

[Nick]

Will definitely be past 1.3B and $400M domestic after the weekend and should pass Top Gun: Maverick as highest grossing film of 2022 next week.

 

[Evan]

Will definitely be past 1.3B and $400M domestic after the weekend and should pass Top Gun: Maverick as highest grossing film of 2022 next week.

next week is 2023 though :afraid: - not sure if it will beat Maverick by Sunday night?

Or so they still count it as 2022 as it’s a 2022 release?

 

[Nick]

next week is 2023 though :afraid: - not sure if it will beat Maverick by Sunday night?

Or so they still count it as 2022 as it’s a 2022 release?

Depends who you talk to and how you word it. Since it was released in 2022, many will argue it counts as having the highest gross from a 2022 released movie, which is not going to be a lie.

However, most websites like BoxOfficeMojo and The-Numbers count box office made in a different year as just that - split box office so technically, I think Avatar finishes around $1.35-ish this weekend, meaning Maverick will have made the most money within 2022 proper. No Way Home would've ran into this as well if another movie made $1.5B in 2021 as NWH made roughly $700-800M of it's total box office in 2022 and domestically made $231.8M and is actually the year's 9th highest grossing domestic film above films like Black Adam, Sonic 2, and Uncharted.

To give a point of reference for where NWH was after NYE weekend last year, it was right around where Avatar hopes to be after this weekend looking back on this Deadline article. It was at 1.37B WW on Jan 2nd so Avatar is actually tracking well to flirt with $2B.

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Swings To $1.37B Global, Now 12th Biggest Film Ever WW – International Box Office

UPDATE, writethru: Happy New Year, Peter Parker! In its third weekend, Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home has lifted its global cume to $1.37B, becoming the 12th highest-grossing film of all time worldwide. Slinging up another $78.3M in 61 international box office markets this session...

deadline.com

 

[Evan]

Depends who you talk to and how you word it. Since it was released in 2022, many will argue it counts as having the highest gross from a 2022 released movie, which is not going to be a lie.

However, most websites like BoxOfficeMojo and The-Numbers count box office made in a different year as just that - split box office so technically, I think Avatar finishes around $1.35-ish this weekend, meaning Maverick will have made the most money within 2022 proper. No Way Home would've ran into this as well if another movie made $1.5B in 2021 as NWH made roughly $700-800M of it's total box office in 2022 and domestically made $231.8M and is actually the year's 9th highest grossing domestic film above films like Black Adam, Sonic 2, and Uncharted.

To give a point of reference for where NWH was after NYE weekend last year, it was right around where Avatar hopes to be after this weekend looking back on this Deadline article. It was at 1.37B WW on Jan 2nd so Avatar is actually tracking well to flirt with $2B.

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Swings To $1.37B Global, Now 12th Biggest Film Ever WW – International Box Office

UPDATE, writethru: Happy New Year, Peter Parker! In its third weekend, Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home has lifted its global cume to $1.37B, becoming the 12th highest-grossing film of all time worldwide. Slinging up another $78.3M in 61 international box office markets this session...

deadline.com

It’s doing amazingly well.

 

[Jamesh22]

I'd be interested in how this compares long term to the attendance of Top Gun, tickets sold would be a fairer comparison than actual money taken.
Top Gun played at a much lower average ticket price. My ticket for WoW IMAX 3D was 3 x what I paid to see Maverick.

 

[Nick]

I'd be interested in how this compares long term to the attendance of Top Gun, tickets sold would be a fairer comparison than actual money taken.
Top Gun played at a much lower average ticket price. My ticket for WoW IMAX 3D was 3 x what I paid to see Maverick.

Was interested in finding this data, but was unsuccessful, got sidetracked and did this instead. I wish that I could compare the international and Global box office of the movies as that would then give you a idea of where it's tracking both domestically and internationally, but at least through the holidays, these are the best comps for the movie domestically imo. Globally I actually think NWH is a good comp. The movie just seems to be enormously popular overseas and if that continues moving forward, none of these movies will have a problem making it to $1B at minimum seeing as Way of Water is approaching $1B from international markets alone, which will make it only the 11th film in history to achieve that (Avatar made over $2B internationally).

It will be interesting how the film does once school starts again and people with corporate jobs go back to work.

Best Domestic comps:

December openings since 2015 to make $500M+ Domestic and $1B+ WW. I really wanted to be able to add Aquaman to this chart but it doesn't fit the 500M/$1B and I can only do 6 movies. Just imagine a line pretty far below all of the other movies and that's Aquaman.

 

[Jamesh22]

Was interested in finding this data, but was unsuccessful, got sidetracked and did this instead. I wish that I could compare the international and Global box office of the movies as that would then give you a idea of where it's tracking both domestically and internationally, but at least through the holidays, these are the best comps for the movie domestically imo. Globally I actually think NWH is a good comp. The movie just seems to be enormously popular overseas and if that continues moving forward, none of these movies will have a problem making it to $1B at minimum seeing as Way of Water is approaching $1B from international markets alone, which will make it only the 11th film in history to achieve that (Avatar made over $2B internationally).

It will be interesting how the film does once school starts again and people with corporate jobs go back to work.

Best Domestic comps:

December openings since 2015 to make $500M+ Domestic and $1B+ WW. I really wanted to be able to add Aquaman to this chart but it doesn't fit the 500M/$1B and I can only do 6 movies. Just imagine a line pretty far below all of the other movies and that's Aquaman.

Thanks for doing the leg work on the data @Nick!
I guess the movie industry isn't interested in sharing attendance/ticket stats as that would prevent them from being able to hail the best this or that ever for every big new movie that comes out.

 

[Nick]

Thanks for doing the leg work on the data @Nick!
I guess the movie industry isn't interested in sharing attendance/ticket stats as that would prevent them from being able to hail the best this or that ever for every big new movie that comes out.

I know the numbers are available. I was looking at numbers very similar to the ones you mentioned a week or two ago, but can’t seem to find where I saw that data.

@Jamesh22 - found the numbers I was looking for. They’re only for domestic though so can’t compare something like Maverick and Way of Water based on global tickets unless Variety or someone has the numbers.

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary for Year 2022

Annual Movie Market Summary for 2022

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Jamesh22]

I know the numbers are available. I was looking at numbers very similar to the ones you mentioned a week or two ago, but can’t seem to find where I saw that data.

@Jamesh22 - found the numbers I was looking for. They’re only for domestic though so can’t compare something like Maverick and Way of Water based on global tickets unless Variety or someone has the numbers.

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary for Year 2022

Annual Movie Market Summary for 2022

www.the-numbers.com

Sadly I don't think those ticket numbers are right. The-Numbers.com have basically taken the reported gross and divided it by $9.17 for every movie to give ticket numbers, and we all know that the price per ticket would have been much higher for a very premium favored format like Avatar.

Thanks again for looking though - still a better guide than anything I have seen so far.

 

[Evan]

Continues to kill it at the box office. Rogue One comp is pretty much done and dusted. #1 2022 release incoming.

MONDAY AM UPDATE:

Sunday came in stronger for Avatar: The Way of Water than Disney expected, grossing a great $24.4M to what was thought to be $21M. That’s the third biggest New Year’s Day haul of all-time after The Force Awakens ($34.3M) and James Cameron’s first Avatar ($25.2M). Avatar 2‘s New Year’s Day was even bigger than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($23.1M) last year.
The third weekend of the James Cameron title rises to $66.8M, +6% from its Christmas weekend, with a 4-day of $86.3M. By the end of today, it’s expected that Avatar 2 will pass the $440.9M 18-day total of Rogue One with$444.4M. Why is that such a big deal? Because that 2016 Star Wars prequel has been used as the comp for this mega-tentpole, which was slower out of the gate than tracking initially forecasted. 2016 was the last time that Christmas fell on a Sunday, and New Year’s Day 2017 too.

Avatar 2‘s $24.4M Sunday also bests Rogue One‘s New Year’s Day gross of $16.7M.

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Office

deadline.com

Of course, the dominant force at the box office is Avatar: The Way of Water which is up 0.2% from last weekend for a third weekend of $63.4 million. That gives The Way of Water the fourth best third weekend of all time, and the $422 million cume (and with Monday estimates that’s $441 million) means it has already grossed over three times its opening weekend and is ahead of Top Gun: Maverick at the same point in its release ($395 million). Internationally the film grew 4% over last weekend, bumping the global cume to $1.397 billion million. The last time we saw legs like this on a massive winter blockbuster was, appropriately enough, 13 years ago with the release of the first Avatar.

Whether or not the spectacular holds continue, the film has already made a killing, and with the Monday estimates it has passed Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $440 million domestic cume to become the second highest domestic grosser of 2022. More impressively, The Way of Water is also just days off from becoming 2022’s highest grossing film worldwide, surpassing Top Gun: Maverick’s $1.49 billion cume. The China release helps here, being the film’s largest international market with $153 million so far, while Maverick never got a release in the Middle Kingdom. Even without China, though, Avatar 2 would still be on track to be the year’s topper. It has already broken pandemic-era records in many markets (notably France, its second biggest international market with $95.1 million so far) after less than three weeks of its release, with considerable room for further growth as it shows no sign of slowing down.

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Nabs 4th Best 3rd Weekend Ever With $63.4 Million As Overall Box Office Rises In New Year’s Weekend

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[OrlandoGuy]

New Year’s Day falling on a Sunday and giving corporate America a whole extra day off to see it is surely helping. The other titles in contention for best New Years of all time came out when the holiday fell on Fridays (2016 for Force Awakens and 2010 for Avatar 1).

 

[Nick]

Sadly I don't think those ticket numbers are right. The-Numbers.com have basically taken the reported gross and divided it by $9.17 for every movie to give ticket numbers, and we all know that the price per ticket would have been much higher for a very premium favored format like Avatar.

Thanks again for looking though - still a better guide than anything I have seen so far.

Well we do know that on Way of Water’s opening weekend, the average ticket price was 13 and change. So if you extrapolate on that rough guide you can probably come in the ballpark.

 

[Nick]

So we'll see if this turns out to be right or not, but a box office analyst I follow on twitter is doing longterm tracking on The Way of Water and is seeing $670M Domestic as the floor based on how NWH performed and possibly into the $800M range if it continues to overperform and defy normal box office trends. He's also seeing $2.2B Worldwide as the floor as of now.

 

[Evan]

Will surpass Top Gun by end of day, as predicted.

James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water has now officially, and as projected, crossed the $1 billion mark at the international box office with Tuesday’s grosses included. What’s more for this 20th Century Studios/Disney juggernaut, at $1,482.5M worldwide through Tuesday, the epic sci-fi sequel is next on its way to yet another milestone and will top $1.5B global when today’s numbers are factored. In doing so, it will become the No. 1 worldwide release of 2022, surpassing Top Gun: Maverick’s $1.489B.

The overseas cume through Tuesday is $1.025B, after adding $28.3M in 52 international markets yesterday (a 44% drop from last Tuesday). WoW is the No. 1 offshore release of 2022 and No. 2 of the pandemic era. It stands as the No. 9 international release of all time, moving up from No. 11 having just passed The Fate of the Furiousand Jurassic World after 21 days in movie theaters.

Globally, it is the No. 12 biggest release ever, now overtaking Disney’s own Frozen II.
Following the holiday period, and while some offshore markets still have local holidays, midweeks continue to be strong and there is plenty of runway ahead.
Not included in the totals above, China’s Wednesday brought in an estimated $3M for a local running cume of $170M. Maoyan is projecting a $215M final. Similarly not included above, Korea reached $78.8M through today.

Through Tuesday, the Top 10 overseas markets are: China ($165.5M), France ($95M), Korea ($77.2M), Germany ($73.4M), UK ($59.5M), India ($51.4M), Mexico ($39.1M), Australia ($37.9M), Italy ($33.8M) and Spain ($30.5M).

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Moves Up To No. 9 On All-Time Global Chart With $1.547B

Avatar: The Way of Water has jumped into the No. 9 slot with Thursday’s grosses included, overtaking 'The Avengers' with $1.547B worldwide

deadline.com

 

[Jamesh22]

This is very sketchy math, but using a normal average ticket price and a normal premium ticket price these are the estimated Global tickets sold so far. Maverick is still the more popular movie.... for now.

Based on both hitting approx $1.5 Billion global

• Maverick - 164 million tickets sold
• Way of Water - 115 million tickets sold

Avatar needs to hit $2.1 billion to be as attended as Maverick.

* obviously dificult to calculate without using an average figure globally, and the real ave ticket value varies massively by country, but based on the premium format of WoW it has to sell a lot less tickets to make the same global ticket sales.

 

[Nick]

This is very sketchy math, but using a normal average ticket price and a normal premium ticket price these are the estimated Global tickets sold so far. Maverick is still the more popular movie.... for now.

Based on both hitting approx $1.5 Billion global

• Maverick - 164 million tickets sold
• Way of Water - 115 million tickets sold

Avatar needs to hit $2.1 billion to be as attended as Maverick.

* obviously dificult to calculate without using an average figure globally, and the real ave ticket value varies massively by country, but based on the premium format of WoW it has to sell a lot less tickets to make the same global ticket sales.

I won't be surprised if it gets to $2.1B as $2B is very much in play, especially with MLK weekend essentially all to itself and then it has Presidents day weekend to play on as well (although Ant-Man 3 opens that weekend, so it will just be receiving a boost). $650-$750/$2-2.2B I can easily see. My original projection for the entire run was $1.5B and then I stuck with $1.7B for a bit and now that it's made it to $1.5B already, $2B really just seems inevitable. But I could be wrong.

It's already going to have well over $500M locked down by the end of this weekend (with $1.6B+ locked down WW) and has over $1B from international markets. If the film can hit $1.5B (or get close) international, then it passes $2B no problem. If the film slows down overseas then it will fall short.

The way the film is pacing (and we'll see how it performs in January), it could well be over $2B before the 45 day window even hits in early February if there is actually a trigger where this has to go on HBO at that time.