Avengers: Endgame (2019)

[fryoj]

Yeah, Endgame doesn't open to $350 million in December. Better legs maybe, but who knows if it does the same overall numbers.

 

[Brian G.]

Yeah, Endgame doesn't open to $350 million in December. Better legs maybe, but who knows if it does the same overall numbers.

Probably opens better, tbh - but no way of knowing so...

 

[Imperius]

Would assume the decrease in 3D showings possibly hurt too. I assume the increase ticket price helped Avatar.

 

[Nick]

Probably opens better, tbh - but no way of knowing so...

It’s almost to the point of being mathematically impossible to open larger. It was running as pretty much the only movie in theaters with theaters staying open 24 hours and it’s a 3 hour movie.

There’s a limit to how much money can be made when you add in all the variables.

 

[Brian G.]

It’s almost to the point of being mathematically impossible to open larger. It was running as pretty much the only movie in theaters with theaters staying open 24 hours and it’s a 3 hour movie.

There’s a limit to how much money can be made when you add in all the variables.

Right... so if you kept those variables with it opening in December, with little competition, and more people off school and taking vacations, you have a chance to make more.

 

[Nick]

Right... so if you kept those variables with it opening in December, with little competition, and more people off school and taking vacations, you have a chance to make more.

Maybe over time, yes, but not opening weekend, which is what I thought you were saying.

 

[Brian G.]

Maybe over time, yes, but not opening weekend, which is what I thought you were saying.

But why not Opening Weekend?

 

[Nick]

But why not Opening Weekend?

Because you’re acting as if people didn’t treat Endgame opening Weekend as if the whole country was on vacation as it was

Maybe it makes more money, but the movie pushed the limits of what was possible over a 3-day weekend with no competition and being a 3-hour movie. Kids being in or out of school doesn’t matter. Virtually every showing was sold out.

 

[Brian G.]

Because you’re acting as if people didn’t treat Endgame opening Weekend as if the whole country was on vacation as it was

Maybe it makes more money, but the movie pushed the limits of what was possible over a 3-day weekend with no competition and being a 3-hour movie. Kids being in or out of school doesn’t matter. Virtually every showing was sold out.

Every showing was sold out in major cities/towns. There was a fair amount of reports of empty theaters in small-town venues. You add in vacations and off-time and maybe those showings increase.

 

[zg44]

But why not Opening Weekend?

Main issue would be screens. Christmas weekend you end up with a lot of competition fighting for those extra slots that Endgame got; even if Endgame was put in Christmas slot, that wouldn't scare everybody off from that weekend, so it'd probably have 20-25% less showings over Christmas weekend.

Endgame basically got nearly all of the screens in some theaters and many theaters were showing 24/3 (i.e. extra night/morning shows) that opening weekend. Endgame could probably pull a $280-300 million OW over Christmas holidays, but there'd be some slippage compared to its actual opening.

If you could handwave away competition, maybe it could do $350 million, but I don't think in reality it would happen. Christmas is too valuable to all the studios.

I'd guess though that it'd probably make an extra $30-50 million overall due to better legs and more re-watches. Probably some extra parents/relatives that didn't see it would get roped in...

 

[fryoj]

Yeah, I read some box office boards, and people who know what they are talking about said the Endgame Saturday is pretty much the max a movie can possibly do in a day with the current screen/seat counts in the country. Also, like others said, around Christmas you are going to have at least one big family movie and probably a few other decent movies. A 90 minute family movie has the potential to do double the endgame numbers per screen due to twice as many showings per 3 hour block. These movies are scheduled months out, so it's not like the studios would know the monster that Endgame would become and schedule around it. So yeah, it would not do $350 opening weekend at Christmas.

 

[Nick]

Yeah, I read some box office boards, and people who know what they are talking about said the Endgame Saturday is pretty much the max a movie can possibly do in a day with the current screen/seat counts in the country. Also, like others said, around Christmas you are going to have at least one big family movie and probably a few other decent movies. A 90 minute family movie has the potential to do double the endgame numbers per screen due to twice as many showings per 3 hour block. These movies are scheduled months out, so it's not like the studios would know the monster that Endgame would become and schedule around it. So yeah, it would not do $350 opening weekend at Christmas.

Yeah, counter-programming is another big thing. Awards movies and more family friendly movies are on the table, which eats into not only screen count, but it eats into the overall box office. Sure, the movie would still be huge, but I don’t think it could’ve had a bigger opening. It probably would’ve stood a better chance at beating TFA domestically though as it would’ve had all of January without major competition.

There literally was no counter-programming for Endgame for a solid 2 weeks.

 

[Andysol]

I’m checking out tomorrow about to head to Tokyo, but Joe Russo is at my hotel in Japan.

Here is the pastry chef making an infinity gauntlet on a platter.

 

[Viator]

Avengers: Endgame Officially Getting Re-Released With New Footage (Exclusive)

Seems like they're gonna try to make one last push to beat Avatar.

EDIT: Feigue has just clarified,

Avengers: Endgame Returning to Theaters Next Week With New Post-Credits Scene

 

[Dhdhddh]

I’m still going to see it, but I really don’t know if it will help with the movie’s legs at all in this point in its run. 45 million is a lot of money, and the domestic market is pretty much the only one it can rely on at this point.

 

[jtsalien]

Awesome, I was planning on seeing it again anyway. So this is a good added incentive.

 

[Nick]

When Avatar got re-released it took in about $33M. Currently, Endgame needs at least $45M. We'll see if it gets there.

 

[Dhdhddh]

It’s got ~$11 million domestically left in the tank, and even if it’s matched by the overseas gross, that’d only give it about $22 million which would still leave a $15 million gap between Endgame and Avatar. I just don’t see it making it that much farther, especially since the rerelease isn’t actually an extended cut.

 

[Nick]

It’s got ~$11 million domestically left in the tank, and even if it’s matched by the overseas gross, that’d only give it about $22 million which would still leave a $15 million gap between Endgame and Avatar. I just don’t see it making it that much farther, especially since the rerelease isn’t actually an extended cut.

I think they are expecting a lot of people to do a double feature and see this before Far From Home though. If that happens, it could see a big increase from what it was on track to do.

 

[fryoj]

I wonder how much the run time will affect the double features. A 3 hour movie is one thing. Coupling it with a 2:15 movie is another. That means ~6 hours in the theater.