A projected $15m opening doesn’t bode well. Although musicals don’t often have big openings, so that won’t be a nail in the coffin, necessarily. Musicals rely on word of mouth.
Something like greatest showman blew up because of word of mouth. Unless cats gets that, it’s sunk. And I don’t see word of mouth saying much more than, at best, “it was really weird, you should see it”. But maybe I’m wrong and it gets a huge following.