Comcast Q2 2024 Earnings

[IzzyB]

Looking at this at a very macro level, I think we're also seeing a demonstration of the limits of positioning a theme park as luxury travel. As the wealth gap widens, these parks will no longer be able to rely on the dollars of the "working class" visitors (or at least those that perceive themselves as working class) that was a backbone of their customer base for years.

And I realize I'm a broken record on this, but the Universal Parks in the United States absolutely rely on international visitors — and they're not coming in the numbers they were before COVID. If you think the economy is broken here (and for many people, it absolutely is!), take a look over at Europe sometime. That, combined with a strong dollar, is absolutely hurting these domestic theme parks.

Yes, international travel INTO the US is down and travel of people in the US vacationing international appears to be up. Which when the US is way stronger than other countries this is going to happen. You really want the other countries to also have strong economies because it helps the US in so many areas. Both in goods they buy from the US, but also service industries like travel.

So then in theory.....Epic Universe is DOA? I mean many here think it has to do with the middle class and no way in one year things get magically better.

I think if you build something cool enough people will "sadly" go into to debt to come to it.

I don't think Epic is DOA. I think many people will go to Epic and I think MANY middle and upper middle along with Lower Upper visit theme parks. Saying ONLY working class goes is not accurate at all. While it is a chunk I know many many upper/middle or lower/upper that love going to theme parks.

Have they priced themselves out of working class? Potentially, but it won't mean Epic is DOA.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

So then in theory.....Epic Universe is DOA? I mean many here think it has to do with the middle class and no way in one year things get magically better.

I think if you build something cool enough people will "sadly" go into to debt to come to it.

Not at all what anybody is saying. Like Jake mentioned, there will be people (like most of us on here) that will find a way to visit Epic Universe even if your wallet stings a bit.

What could happen is that the pricing structure for Epic Universe may make it difficult to visit, and may not offer a great value. It's more than likely that Universal is taking recent economic developments and attendance indicators into account. 1-2 years ago they had reason to be bullish on attendance/pricing... now I'm sure that sentiment has changed a bit.

 

[Jerroddragon]

I don't think it's as simple as, "the United States has significant structural problems that are now squarely exerting themselves on people that consider themselves middle class, thereby Epic Universe is toast." Mainly because those significant structural problems have existed for quite a long time and, you know, here we are.

There's a lot of time between now and when Epic Universe opens. Lots of things can, and probably will, change between now and then.

I mean we can't get political but unless a miracle happens there is a low chance of people in the US or the World having more money then over now.

So then it becomes a questions of is it the price on off years the issue? Because if people come when you make something they want and its also worth traveling for then I think its just a different reality then hat we are talking about. If people come next year, it shows money wasn't the factor as much as the parks aren't giving consumers what they want.

 

[Jake S]

those two things are not remotely mutually exclusive.

 

[Mad Dog]

Next year will be interesting. Epic will probably do well. What will be in question though, is will it attract enough of those that don't live in Florida to significantly boost attendance at IOA, Studios and the WDW parks. That's going to be a very key stat to watch. WDW doesn't really have anything, except a possible new night parade, that's going to elevate tourism to Orlando.....Right now, both park systems have had to resort to huge pricing discounts in an attempt to spur attendance. Over supply & less demand issues are very evident. And Disney is having particular issues filling their Deluxe hotels. That's the domain of the higher middle class, that's not coming either. Past Vacation Club membership is the main thing keeping those hotels afloat.....Universal has one big advantage over Disney to attract blue collar families. Try finding an 'affordable' family suite in an onsite WDW hotel. Universal, in excellent foresight, built a ton of family suites in their hotel resorts, at very affordable 'value' prices. This fact should not be underestimated.

 

[HandsomePete]

Just imagining if Disney's parks segment posts an 11% decline in revenue...
Bob: We're looking forward to sharing details at D23 of the $16 billion that we'll be investing over the next ten years.
Everyone: Isn't is $60 billion?
Bob: Nope, must have misheard me last quarter - I definitely said $16 billion.

It's obviously indicative of a broader Orlando issue, and to be honest I don't really buy people putting off trips because of EU being anything more than a small contributor to the problem. Most people aren't paying that close of attention to that. People came in droves in 21/22 because Florida was the first place back to "normal," then everyone (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, even the McDonald's there seem like some of the most expensive in the country) got out over their skis taking profits. Now they're super expensive and people are doing other things instead of paying more to come back a second time.

It also doesn't help that there's nothing opening that's worth putting on a billboard this summer. Sorry Tiana and Dreamworks... not needle-movers.

 

[Mad Dog]

Just imagining if Disney's parks segment posts an 11% decline in revenue...
Bob: We're looking forward to sharing details at D23 of the $16 billion that we'll be investing over the next ten years.
Everyone: Isn't is $60 billion?
Bob: Nope, must have misheard me last quarter - I definitely said $16 billion.

It's obviously indicative of a broader Orlando issue, and to be honest I don't really buy people putting off trips because of EU being anything more than a small contributor to the problem. Most people aren't paying that close of attention to that. People came in droves in 21/22 because Florida was the first place back to "normal," then everyone (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, even the McDonald's there seem like some of the most expensive in the country) got out over their skis taking profits. Now they're super expensive and people are doing other things instead of paying more to come back a second time.

It also doesn't help that there's nothing opening that's worth putting on a billboard this summer. Sorry Tiana and Dreamworks... not needle-movers.

Yep.....I'm sure Universal will up the Epic marketing now that opening is getting close, but I still doubt most potential out of state tourists, that aren't part of the rabid internet theme park community, know or care about Epic yet. I seriously doubt that waiting on Epic to open is a major reason for these Orlando parks problems. It's on the list, but way down the list. WDW is doing worse than Universal and they're not opening a new park.....and that 2021/2022 experience wasn't great for first time WDW/Universal tourists, awash with government money, that had poor experiences with super long lines in parks that hadn't increased their overall capacity in the past decade or so to meet the growing crowd levels. Stuff catches up.

 

[TheUniC6]

is will it attract enough of those that don't live in Florida to significantly boost attendance at IOA, Studios and the WDW parks

FWIW, Henry Mystic on WDW claims Universal apparently is not worried about IOA taking that big of hit.

I am going to guess once EU comes online, USF and DHS will probably take the biggest hit attendance wise. AK is already being dealt with the Tropical Americas replacement for Dinoland USA. USF and DHS will need stuff ASAP. At the very least a bluesky concept or actual announcement for DHS sounds like it will be shown off at D23 2024.

Universal on the other hand should really consider fast tracking Pokemon before 2030 depending on how badly USF attendance craters.

 

[Mad Dog]

FWIW, Henry Mystic on WDW claims Universal apparently is not worried about IOA taking that big of hit.

I am going to guess once EU comes online, USF and DHS will probably take the biggest hit attendance wise. AK is already being dealt with the Tropical Americas replacement for Dinoland USA. USF and DHS will need stuff ASAP. At the very least a bluesky concept or actual announcement for DHS sounds like it will be shown off at D23 2024.

Universal on the other hand should really consider fast tracking Pokemon before 2030 depending on how badly USF attendance craters.

I'd guess that's a very possible scenario. IOA has that really solid thrill ride line up. Studios might have to add a new big time Festival to bridge that long gap between Mardi Gras and HHN. If I was running the park, that's what I would do since it's way too late to get a major attraction there, and I doubt they do a Transformers thing again....But I think at WDW, AK will take the biggest hit. Those replacements are far off, and AK has been really weak since the Pandora effect has worn off a bit. DHA is the WDW thrill park, and that demo keeps it strong even though it has a real attraction shortage in relation to its attendance.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

I'd guess that's a very possible scenario. IOA has that really solid thrill ride line up. Studios might have to add a new big time Festival to bridge that long gap between Mardi Gras and HHN. If I was running the park, that's what I would do since it's way too late to get a major attraction there, and I doubt they do a Transformers thing again....But I think at WDW, AK will take the biggest hit. Those replacements are far off, and AK has been really weak since the Pandora effect has worn off a bit. DHA is the WDW thrill park, and that demo keeps it strong even though it has a real attraction shortage in relation to its attendance.

MK - The king of Orlando, no impact
EP - Survives off locals/APs, TBA on impact until we get a better idea of AP offers for Epic
DHS - The Power of IP, minor impact
DAK - Nearly a ghost town after 4PM, will suffer the most at WDW unfortunately (my favorite park sadly

USF - will suffer, but similar to Epcot will benefit from locals/APs. I agree, USF might need to figure out a special event in the interim to encourage visits, especially if the park is impacted by reduced capacity from Rockit/Springfield projects in the future.
IOA - minor impact, the Hagrid+Velo combo and all the other attractions is a hard one to pass on.

SWO - godspeed

 

[TheUniC6]

Those replacements are far off

If Disney can move fast, maybe they can have Tropical Americas ready by 2027 followed up with DHS's expansion behind AC by 2028, although the latter is probably wishful thinking on my part.

 

[Mad Dog]

If Disney can move fast, maybe they can have Tropical Americas ready by 2027 followed up with DHS's expansion behind AC by 2028, although the latter is probably wishful thinking on my part.

Very wishful. Although AK is possible......Evidently these Universal results came in lower than expected/planned for. Comcast Pres. Mike Cavanagh today, " The parks are below our original expectations for the year". I wouldn't want to be a U.S. parks management person today. The film results will rebound since they have some hits on the agenda for the present quarter.

 

[Evan]

If cost of living doesn’t improve somewhat year over year, I’d be worried about the parks again. Even with EU.

Everything is too expensive, and the GP are triaging their funds.