Seems like Comcast and Disney are looking for a split asset if both companies agree on to something.
Hard to see though why Disney and Comcast would share when they both want the most valuable parts of the assets. Take that 30% of Hulu for example, both Disney and Comcast need that 30% to combine with each's 30% to control 60% of Hulu (which allows them to treat it like a subsidiary). 21st Century Fox's movie rights over X-Men/FF/Avatar/Aliens/etc. would also be coveted by both (Disney owns Marvel while Comcast would need those live-action franchises since that's Universal's weakness). Same applies to the 39% of Sky and Star India that Fox owns (neither Disney nor Comcast have large foreign divisions outside of theme parks).
This sounds like more a bidding war than anything else. The one problem for Comcast is that the Trump Administration lawsuit over AT&T/TimeWarner may make it easier for Disney to convince Fox that they won't have any legal problems completing the purchase while Comcast may have more legal issues.
What I meant though is that both Disney and Comcast need/want all of the assets for sale (30% of Hulu, 39% of Sky, Star India, 21st Century Fox TV/Movie studio, Fox Animation/Blue Sky studio, FX/National Geographic cable networks).All Disney/Comcast want is Fox's movie and TV cable and broadcast satellite entertainment assets and as noted before, it would not include the Fox Broadcasting Company, Fox News Television Stations, and Fox Sports (Disney owns ABC while Comcast owns NBC, and both networks also have news and sports divisions) AT&T-Time Warner merger is a different game though, since such merge would increase media holdings, in concert with AT&T's ownership of television and internet providers, it means everything that Time Warner has, not just the entertainment assets.
The Murdochs are definitely doing their part to drum up interest in this sale; putting out front page WSJ articles on interest in the Fox assets will help drive a bidding war between Disney and Comcast (and maybe Verizon or others) if they see one bidder closing in on a deal.Of note,
WSJ broke the story about Comcast still wanting assets. WSJ is owned by Fox and the Murdochs. Just pointing out that point of interest as if Fox may want to sell more to Comcast than Disney.
That doesn’t strike me as them wanting to sell more to Comcast as much as trying to reel them back in since rumors have been pointing to Disney lately.Of note,
WSJ broke the story about Comcast still wanting assets. WSJ is owned by Fox and the Murdochs. Just pointing out that point of interest as if Fox may want to sell more to Comcast than Disney.
"21st Century Fox Inc., the global film and TV company controlled by the Murdoch family, would prefer to sell some assets to Walt Disney Co. because it’s a better strategic fit and presents fewer regulatory hurdles, people familiar with the matter said."
Fox Favors Disney as Buyer for Studio, Media Assets - Bloomberg
It makes sense that they're leaning towards Disney on both accounts: 1) Trump administration has been completely unpredictable on media mergers with the unexpected lawsuit against the AT&T-TimeWarner merger (means a lawsuit against a Comcast purchase of Fox's entertainment assets is a non-zero probability), and 2) Disney owns Marvel (Fox's X-Men/FF rights fit in there), as well as Lucasfilm (Fox still has distribution rights to the original Star Wars movie) and Pandora/Avatar.
So that's a sensible starting point for Fox to be leaning towards Disney.
But money always talks and we're talking about a purchase that could range anywhere from $25 billion to $50 billion depending on the assets in play. If Comcast offers several billion dollars more than Disney, Fox would probably go with Comcast's bid.
All I can think about is finally getting a good Fantastic Four movie if this goes to Disney.
Yeah, in a general sense, if Disney does acquire these assets, then it would probably be so dominant in terms of major franchises that it's difficult to see how other studios breakthrough without developing other new franchises.Wow, Disney owning this much really actually annoys me and would make grow big and bully others to force them in their favor. Anyways, I really hope Comcast offers billion dollars more than what Disney has, considering it has more shares than Disney itself.
It would never be the current Avenger era going against X-men though. Not only is Jackman pretty much done as Wolverine, but many of the big name Avengers are likely to exit the current MCU after Avengers 4.All I can think of is a possible X-Men v. Avengers movie. That could be huge.
It would never be the current Avenger era going against X-men though. Not only is Jackman pretty much done as Wolverine, but many of the big name Avengers are likely to exit the current MCU after Avengers 4.
"21st Century Fox Inc., the global film and TV company controlled by the Murdoch family, would prefer to sell some assets to Walt Disney Co. because it’s a better strategic fit and presents fewer regulatory hurdles, people familiar with the matter said."
Fox Favors Disney as Buyer for Studio, Media Assets - Bloomberg
It makes sense that they're leaning towards Disney on both accounts: 1) Trump administration has been completely unpredictable on media mergers with the unexpected lawsuit against the AT&T-TimeWarner merger (means a lawsuit against a Comcast purchase of Fox's entertainment assets is a non-zero probability), and 2) Disney owns Marvel (Fox's X-Men/FF rights fit in there), as well as Lucasfilm (Fox still has distribution rights to the original Star Wars movie) and Pandora/Avatar.
So that's a sensible starting point for Fox to be leaning towards Disney.
But money always talks and we're talking about a purchase that could range anywhere from $25 billion to $50 billion depending on the assets in play. If Comcast offers several billion dollars more than Disney, Fox would probably go with Comcast's bid.
A deal could open the door for James Murdoch, Fox’s chief executive officer, to join Disney. The Murdochs aim to make a decision by the end of the year, the people said. Whether they pursue a transaction will depend on the price and structure, they said.
The Fox assets in play are worth almost $50 billion, according to Alan Gould, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities Inc., and could translate into a 25 percent stake in Disney if they agree to a stock deal. That would potentially reduce the tax liability for Fox shareholders, including the Murdochs.
Both can offer a tax-deferred merger using stock (Comcast's stock is worth $190 billion market cap, Disney's is worth $170 billion market cap). Both are very low in total debt as well in case they need to add any cash (Comcast has $60 billion in total debt, Disney has $30 billion in total debt).Biggest part of why Fox wants Disney...
Comcast can buy with cash on hand but Disney giving stock would give Murdoch a much larger advantage monetarily with stocks.
Both can offer a tax-deferred merger using stock (Comcast's stock is worth $190 billion market cap, Disney's is worth $170 billion market cap). Both are very low in total debt as well in case they need to add any cash (Comcast has $60 billion in total debt, Disney has $30 billion in total debt).
Either can offer any mix of stock or cash up to $50 billion without breaking a sweat.
As a comparison, AT&T with a market cap of $230 billion already has $120 billion in total debt but would take on an additional $66 billion in debt if/when it accomplishes its merger with TimeWarner (they offered $86 billion in cash and stock for TimeWarner).
That should put into perspective just how strong Comcast and Disney balance sheets are compared to a much more heavily indebted telecom like AT&T.
It really just comes down to who offers more; i.e. $55 billion in Comcast stock would trump $50 billion in Disney stock.
My read of the situation is that based on estate planning for Rupert Murdoch, they may try to just pass the Disney (or Comcast) shares that they receive straight to Fox investors and the Murdoch Family Trust. That's the main reason why they want stock (not cash) in this sale.I'm thinking more so in terms of ownership, I don't see Brian Roberts giving Murdoch a seat on the board whereas I see Disney easily selling out to give part of ownership to the Murdoch family. These giving them stronger influence on Disney's operations.