Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[Mad Dog]

Disney missed Revenue estimates. Revenue came in at $11.78 billion vs. analysts estimate of $12.37 Billion.............Impact on theme parks was $3.5 billion on park's operating income....................57.5 million Disney plus subscribers

 

[Nick]

I'm not quite so optimistic. Vaccine might be approved by early 2021, but It could only have a slightly better than 50% efficacy, regular folks probably won't even have it available to them until end of 2021 (as high risk or high exposure people will get it first) and then there's the number of people who will refuse to take it (which polls show it's as high as 30% of people who won't even take it right away).

If I had to wager, won't be until at least some time in 2022 until things will be back to some form of "normal".

I mean, can't the federal government make it illegal to not take this vaccine due to the circumstances at hand? I know the answer is probably yes and "it depends who is president next year".

Disney missed Revenue estimates. Revenue came in at $11.78 billion vs. analysts estimate of $12.37 Billion.

On the postive side for Disney, ESPN is thriving now with practically too many sports to show at once and the parks are at least going to have operated for the whole quarter by the time the next quarter comes around. They also have a ton of movies to still release, it's just about when and how (theaters or VOD) they come out. The cruise business is their only sector still basically 100% stagnant. Of course filming for TV shows is rough right now, which is going to hurt ABC and Disney+'s fall lineup.

 

[Scott W.]

I mean, can't the federal government make it illegal to not take this vaccine due to the circumstances at hand? I know the answer is probably yes and "it depends who is president next year".

I think that will be overstepping the mark but I don’t trust people to do the right thing.

There was an article months ago about there being an antibody elite who will be able to return to normal. I think something similar will be adopted. If a vaccine is out in the next 6 months and I plan on coming to Florida, I don't doubt for a second that I will need to have some certificate or proof that I have had a vaccine to travel.

It seems like the most fair way to do it. You don't want a vaccine? Fine but you won't be able to do a lot of things as you pose a risk.

 

[JoeCamel]

I mean, can't the federal government make it illegal to not take this vaccine due to the circumstances at hand? I know the answer is probably yes and "it depends who is president next year".

The feds couldn't make it mandatory to get the shot but they can withhold services such as schools, DL, vehicle registration etc and it would hurt more not to get it. Kinda like the way childhood vaccination is done today.

 

[TommyJK]

When it comes to vaccines, aside from the anti-vaxers, many people are afraid about taking one so soon after it's been created and approved, without multiple years of study to determine if there are any potential long term effects of it.

I myself would likely take it once I could, but a doctor friend of mine says he'd likely wait a few years before taking it to see the results after many have taken over several seasons (depending on what the results of the phase 3 trials say).

 

[Nick]

The feds couldn't make it mandatory to get the shot but they can withhold services such as schools, DL, vehicle registration etc and it would hurt more not to get it. Kinda like the way childhood vaccination is done today.

Would "schools" include home schooling though? Because that's what a lot of people are going to be doing for the foreseeable future, anyway.

 

[TommyJK]

From earnings call, Disney announced they will be releasing Mulan on Disney+ as a PPV of $29.99 in Sept....

 

[Scott W.]

Richard Branson's Virgin Atlantic is seeking Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the US while it scrambles to finalize a rescue plan

Virgin Atlantic filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy. International travel demand has been sharply cut by the coronavirus pandemic and travel bans.

www.businessinsider.com

I'm still waiting on my refund. Luckily, my travel insurance or credit card should be able to save me if things go tits up.

 

[Teebin]

Meanwhile, there are a ton of no-vacancies on a Tuesday on an island off the coast of Maine. It is like a normal July 4th here today. Much of it is New York state. The sidewalks here are a constant flow of people, 95% of whom are masked.

Waiting for the other shoe to drop...

 

[Jerroddragon]

Disney We aren't making as much money as before and have no way to really make money off our movies like before or theme parks...stocks rise

lol
What i joke, Stocks makes no sense Disney will not be making what it used to for over a year from now...why in god's name is the stock rising from this news?
If they announced ways they were going to make money off the movies they made already (not just mulan) and said we have Holiday theme park plans then sure but they don't no clue how anyone things this stock is worth buying today

 

[Nick]

Disney We aren't making as much money as before and have no way to really make money off our movies like before or theme parks...stocks rise

lol
What i joke, Stocks makes no sense Disney will not be making what it used to for over a year from now...why in god's name is the stock rising from this news?
If they announced ways they were going to make money off the movies they made already (not just mulan) and said we have Holiday theme park plans then sure but they don't no clue how anyone things this stock is worth buying today

Stock rises because people want to buy low-ish. They know eventually the company is going to bounce back, meaning this report is an outlier and things can only get better.

 

[Jerroddragon]

Stock rises because people want to buy low-ish. They know eventually the company is going to bounce back, meaning this report is an outlier and things can only get better.

The Company for the next quarter will sill be way down and an election is coming up...to me I would have no reason to buy it now. The leadership seems to have no real idea's to how to make money during this time. Though I guess if all it takes is beings company that years from now should turn a profit then I guess why do anything?

 

[Nick]

The Company for the next quarter will sill be way down and an election is coming up...to me I would have no reason to buy it now. The leadership seems to have no real idea's to how to make money during this time. Though I guess if all it takes is beings company that years from now should turn a profit then I guess why do anything?

It's not a quarter to quarter investment, it's about the long term.

 

[Evan]

They also did far better then many thought. Many are buying because it wasn’t as bad as many said it would be.

 

[Jerroddragon]

It's not a quarter to quarter investment, it's about the long term.

Sure, but we have noooooo idea when they will be back to making record profits again.

To me makes no sense, Amazon makes sense they are making hand over fist cash...Disney they aren't able to build new rides, hold events, put people on cruises, let people see movies that make them billions of dollars then buy merchandise of said movie. Also besides Mando they have nothing really filmed, so while yes next year might see a good amount of content they have are going to have some weaker years film wise coming up.

I would not invest in them now, but if people here think its a good idea go for it.

 

[RevFreako]

They also did far better then many thought. Many are buying because it wasn’t as bad as many said it would be.

Exactly this - the doomers were calling for heavy negative EPS. The fact that they managed to come out positive is a very good sign. I bought what I could a few weeks ago and made a few dollars today.

 

[Nick]

Sure, but we have noooooo idea when they will be back to making record profits again.

To me makes no sense, Amazon makes sense they are making hand over fist cash...Disney they aren't able to build new rides, hold events, put people on cruises, let people see movies that make them billions of dollars then buy merchandise of said movie. Also besides Mando they have nothing really filmed, so while yes next year might see a good amount of content they have are going to have some weaker years film wise coming up.

I would not invest in them now, but if people here think its a good idea go for it.

tbh, the smart idea was to invest in Disney when they were down to $85/share.

 

[JoeCamel]

Would "schools" include home schooling though? Because that's what a lot of people are going to be doing for the foreseeable future, anyway.

No, schools get funds based on student days. If fed funds are used to provide service they could be withheld unless you can provide proof of vaccination. Might go to the 9 but I think they would be on firm ground in a declared emergency. It may never be 100% but if we get 70% that may be enough like measles vaccinations.

 

[Nick]

Going back to Mulan real quick. Mulan's date is interesting as it is coming out at a very crowded time now:

9/3 - Tenet (Theatrical)
9/4 - Mulan (Disney+ PVOD)
9/4 - The Boys (Amazon)
9/4 - Bill & Ted Face the Music (PVOD)

That's a lot for one weekend. Idk if B&T or The Boys should move, although The Boys could turn out to be perfectly positioned as it's included with Amazon and people can watch it at home. So instead of paying extra for Mulan or going out to see Tenet, The Boys will provide a safe alternative. B&T3 will likely be hurt by this and forgotten though if it doesn't move.

Also remember The New Mutants comes out the week before Tenet, so it'll still be new-ish.

 

[RevFreako]

So ready for The Boys