Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[JungleSkip]

I think the "break even or better" in 2021 is an incredibly overly optimistic output, or will take some clever accounting to appear that way.

But they've stopped the major bleeding, which is good.

 

[shiekra38]

I think the "break even or better" in 2021 is an incredibly overly optimistic output, or will take some clever accounting to appear that way.

But they've stopped the major bleeding, which is good.

That seemed way off to me. The only two major world events we have to go off of took years to rebound from.

However, I could see this playing out a little differently baring another aggressive strain or something crazy

 

[Alicia]

That seemed way off to me. The only two major world events we have to go off of took years to rebound from.

However, I could see this playing out a little differently baring another aggressive strain or something crazy

I wonder if Beijing played into this. They said $20m was spent in Q3 to support the opening of that new park. Once open in May 2021, that park will start to make money, hopefully, rather than cost money.

 

[JungleSkip]

That seemed way off to me. The only two major world events we have to go off of took years to rebound from.

However, I could see this playing out a little differently baring another aggressive strain or something crazy

I think we will recover quicker once this is over. But considering our numbers continue to skyrocket, it’s hard to see it “being over” in 2021. On the road to recovery? Sure. But nowhere near out of the woods

 

[GAcoaster]

I'm sure that '21 will be better in that regard. Most people buy 6Flags, CF Season Passes in April or so. And in '20 that was just as the pandemic hit and everything closed down. So yeah, no one bought them this year.

Six Flags has been moving to the "membership" model like SeaWorld has been doing for years where passes automatically renew each year. They were hoping people would just continue their passes, but I think people have been actively cancelling them. I know I have received emails from them for my pass and offering all kinds of upgrades and perks if I maintain it.

 

[Disneyhead]

Remember, break even doesn't mean "rebound". It means between projected increased attendance and cuts they will stop the bleeding.

 

[Mad Dog]

Remember, break even doesn't mean "rebound". It means between projected increased attendance and cuts they will stop the bleeding.

and they'll also have their share of the revenue percentage from Beijing helping the total revenue numbers.....and odds are the second half of 2021 will be significantly stronger than the first half of 2021 as the vaccines
are implemented.

 

[vgp]

I think we will recover quicker once this is over. But considering our numbers continue to skyrocket, it’s hard to see it “being over” in 2021. On the road to recovery? Sure. But nowhere near out of the woods

Much of the consumer research points to a large percentage of would-be travelers waiting on a vaccine. If we get a widely-deployed vaccine around Q2 2021, then it's not a reach to say we will see a sudden and sustained lift in leisure travel. Obviously there will be some lingering economic impacts for some time but with a K-shaped recovery anticipated, it's likely that those in the position to travel and stay in Orlando for WDW/UO will be on the favorable part of that.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

Universal Theme Park Attendance Slowly Growing, Parks Expected to "Break Even" in 2021 | Theme Park Tourist

As expected, revenue for the most recent quarter related to this segment is down 80.9% to $311 Million and year to date is down 71% to $1.267 Billion.

www.themeparktourist.com

I would gladly take this scenario, then hopefully a net gain in 2022. All I want is improvement each year going forward, since at times I’m skeptical that this is ever going to be “over”—in time for the parks to survive and grow again.

 

[JungleSkip]

Much of the consumer research points to a large percentage of would-be travelers waiting on a vaccine. If we get a widely-deployed vaccine around Q2 2021, then it's not a reach to say we will see a sudden and sustained lift in leisure travel. Obviously there will be some lingering economic impacts for some time but with a K-shaped recovery anticipated, it's likely that those in the position to travel and stay in Orlando for WDW/UO will be on the favorable part of that.

I think there are a lot of unknowns we still don't know. If a vaccine is only 50-60% effective (FDA says that this is their minimum requirement), we still may be looking at a long time of social distancing, park capacity restrictions, and masking. That climate still isn't super conducive to tourism. It'd certainly be better though.

EDIT: "A lot of unknowns we still don't know" LOL, good one, me.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

I think there are a lot of unknowns we still don't know. If a vaccine is only 50-60% effective (FDA says that this is their minimum requirement), we still may be looking at a long time of social distancing, park capacity restrictions, and masking. That climate still isn't super conducive to tourism. It'd certainly be better though.

Exactly. Too many people think a vax will be a silver bullet. Why I hate the phrase “when/until this is over.” it’s not going to be over for many years, and if the parks are depending on it being “over” in the next year, then bye bye.

 

[JungleSkip]

Exactly. Too many people think a vax will be a silver bullet. Why I hate the phrase “when/until this is over.” it’s not going to be over for many years, and if the parks are depending on it being “over” in the next year, then bye bye.

Dude, you seriously need to get your underwear unbunched. The parks can survive at a lowered attendance rate. You need to cut it out. There's a wide spectrum between "going out of business" and "back to normal". The parks aren't going anywhere.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

Dude, you seriously need to get your underwear unbunched. The parks can survive at a lowered attendance rate. You need to cut it out. There's a wide spectrum between "going out of business" and "back to normal". The parks aren't going anywhere.

I would happily take “early to mid aughts” levels of attendance—lower than the post Potter boom, yes, but definitely at a sustainable level.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Exactly. Too many people think a vax will be a silver bullet. Why I hate the phrase “when/until this is over.” it’s not going to be over for many years, and if the parks are depending on it being “over” in the next year, then bye bye.

Im a worrier just like yourself so I get it, but I think you jump to waaayyy too many conclusions. If the parks were legit having issues surviving, we'd know. Thats not happening, and no one is forecasting that. Cuts and projects not being added, absolutely but this is a jump that isn't necessary tbh. Its one thing to worry this "new normal" IS the new normal but to then say everything will close forever is just nonsense. The parks will suffer but will still be there

 

[Scott W.]

I think there are a lot of unknowns we still don't know. If a vaccine is only 50-60% effective (FDA says that this is their minimum requirement), we still may be looking at a long time of social distancing, park capacity restrictions, and masking. That climate still isn't super conducive to tourism. It'd certainly be better though.

EDIT: "A lot of unknowns we still don't know" LOL, good one, me.

The restrictions is what makes the parks an unattractive place to visit (for me anyway). It would be different if I was a local or only travelling for a few hours and a couple of hundred bucks. Big difference when you're travelling 9 hours and spending thousands.

I wonder how the mask restrictions will begin to be lifted. I assume it won't be masks one day and none the next. Probably masks only required for indoors while still social distancing being the first step.

 

[Grabnar]

The big parks are going to be fine even if this is protracted to 2+ years. They'll be cut back but they're not going to close down. I'd be more concerned about regional parks than anything else as they generally rely more on middle and lower class families that aren't able to afford to travel to the larger parks; the same families that are going to be hit harder by a recession.

 

[JungleSkip]

The restrictions is what makes the parks an unattractive place to visit (for me anyway). It would be different if I was a local or only travelling for a few hours and a couple of hundred bucks. Big difference when you're travelling 9 hours and spending thousands.

I wonder how the mask restrictions will begin to be lifted. I assume it won't be masks one day and none the next. Probably masks only required for indoors while still social distancing being the first step.

I think masking will be in effect at least through next year. I’d imagine we’ll see capacity limits, though not as drastic, through 2021 as well

 

[RevFreako]

I got the 3 year/$150 deal (which comes out to $4.16 per month). Otherwise, I probably wouldn’t have had it as long either.

I thought I was doing well with a year for thirty.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

The big parks are going to be fine even if this is protracted to 2+ years. They'll be cut back but they're not going to close down. I'd be more concerned about regional parks than anything else as they generally rely more on middle and lower class families that aren't able to afford to travel to the larger parks; the same families that are going to be hit harder my a recession.

My thoughts exactly, like Canobie Lake Park is one of my favorites in New Hampshire, Id imagine they're a "larger" local park, but Im worried for them. I think they opened this year, I did not go, and Id be hesitant to go next summer but its too early to state that either way. Its park like those, which were my first exposure to an amusement/theme park, that I worry about surviving and the way you described it is perfectly showing how it affects more local parks due to economic reasons, compared to the people who travel to UOR or WDW. Big difference in consumer base, which again, is worrisome for the local parks.

For UOR and WDW, they both have projects being worked on for 2021/2022, I don't think anything past those dates, and it wouldn't shock me if we didn't see ground breaking being worked on for ANY new projects until 2023, may be totally off but in my head Ive assumed nothing new in Orlando for 3-4 years after 2021/2022. We've been spoiled in Orlando theme parks since 2010 like crazy, and were promised pre-covid for even more development for these parks. Its gonna be a striking change of pace I think for some, but its a pace I'm expecting at this point.

 

[OhHaiInternet95]

My thoughts exactly, like Canobie Lake Park is one of my favorites in New Hampshire, Id imagine they're a "larger" local park, but Im worried for them. I think they opened this year, I did not go, and Id be hesitant to go next summer but its too early to state that either way. Its park like those, which were my first exposure to an amusement/theme park, that I worry about surviving and the way you described it is perfectly showing how it affects more local parks due to economic reasons, compared to the people who travel to UOR or WDW. Big difference in consumer base, which again, is worrisome for the local parks.

For UOR and WDW, they both have projects being worked on for 2021/2022, I don't think anything past those dates, and it wouldn't shock me if we didn't see ground breaking being worked on for ANY new projects until 2023, may be totally off but in my head Ive assumed nothing new in Orlando for 3-4 years after 2021/2022. We've been spoiled in Orlando theme parks since 2010 like crazy, and were promised pre-covid for even more development for these parks. Its gonna be a striking change of pace I think for some, but its a pace I'm expecting at this point.

I think the additions next year will tide people over for a good long while (especially if SW/BG survive).