Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[youhow2]

CDC recommended the “no larger group than 50 for 8 weeks” around March 15? If we’re able to mitigate this and successfully flatten the curve, I think we’re looking no earlier than Mid-May. (Barring some advanced miracle development on an antidote/treatment/cure/etc)

Unfortunately, our curve as a nation is at higher pace than any other country, and people still aren't taking it seriously.

We are unfortunately, as of a few days ago past the "line in the sand" so to speak.


I think, personally this is the event that shapes, if not defines this decade/century.

And really, looking at the data, I don't believe we are reopening any social/entertainment establishment for some time once we start actually feeling this thing, atleast until we have a viable vaccine or treatment, and if so, only for a month or two at a time until this bastard of a virus reemerges and we take shelter again.

We also have to consider even with government intervention many businesses will fail, and it is entirely possible the juggarnauts we know today do not survive.

I think, if we focus on maintaining the status quo, maintaining Businesses instead of taking care of our people, making sure we survive this this thing we will enter a major depression, and businesses will fail anyways.

What chains can survive with no income for a year?

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Could it even be possible that if SNW is crazy successful in Japan that we see them dust off the kid zone plans and put it there for a quick monetary boost while sitting on EU plans for several years? I could certainly envision that scenario ironically playing out.

I can't imagine that happening. Epic Universe is part of a larger play to make Universal a multi-day destination to rival Disney, and if EU loses Nintendo, it loses its anchor attractions. If plans did change for EU, I imagine plans for Nintendo and Fantastic Beasts remain intact, with any modifications likely happening to Monsters, Dragons, and the hub.

 

[Andysol]

That makes sense, but people talking about cancelling are crazy.

Who/where was it talked about getting cancelled?

 

[Disneyhead]

I think come hell or high water, by April 15th Orlando will reopen all the parks (with the exception of possibly Blizzard Beach) and as many hotels as possible. If it gets really bad, maybe the end of April.

 

[Grabnar]

Unfortunately, our curve as a nation is at higher pace than any other country, and people still aren't taking it seriously.

We are unfortunately, as of a few days ago past the "line in the sand" so to speak.


I think, personally this is the event that shapes, if not defines this decade/century.

And really, looking at the data, I don't believe we are reopening any social/entertainment establishment for some time once we start actually feeling this thing, atleast until we have a viable vaccine or treatment, and if so, only for a month or two at a time until this bastard of a virus reemerges and we take shelter again.

We also have to consider even with government intervention many businesses will fail, and it is entirely possible the juggarnauts we know today do not survive.

I think, if we focus on maintaining the status quo, maintaining Businesses instead of taking care of our people, making sure we survive this this thing we will enter a major depression, and businesses will fail anyways.

What chains can survive with no income for a year?

From a national response perspective I'd imagine it'll be something like this
1) National lock down and hard crack down on travel, likely 8-15 weeks (based off of China timeframe)
2) Gradual re-opening with social distancing in place and massive testing, hopefully mandatory (at least for workforce).
3) Hard quarantines of tested individuals ala Singapore or SK.
4) Repeat steps 1-3 at a state scale for flare ups until accelerated vaccine is ready.

I personally think all major events this year will be cancelled, and tourist destinations will take a large hit until we hit step 4. The rest of the economy will slowly re-awaken after things start re-opening in step 2-3 and jobs start slowly rolling back up.

This is definitely one of the defining moments of the century, but with climate change I unfortunately think this will be far down the top 10. Even pandemics are supposed to increase in frequency as deforestation and climate related migration bring animals together in areas that naturally cohabitate, increasing disease spread.

 

[HalfGlass]

This thread will be interesting to look back at 6-12 months from now to see how off or accurate everyone was on this.

 

[Imperius]

In no way do I expect the world to shut for the rest of the year. China is already seeing less confirmed cases if we can believe them. Same with Japan and South Korea. America started late, but we’re starting to see people being more proactive about this and actually listening outside of a few idiots. We should see actual treatment options come out soon. A vaccine is still a year or more away, but treatment options will be available much sooner. Biggest thing is we need to start testing way more people and quarantine from there.

 

[Grabnar]

In no way do I expect the world to shut for the rest of the year. China is already seeing less confirmed cases if we can believe them. Same with Japan and South Korea. America started late, but we’re starting to see people being more proactive about this and actually listening outside of a few idiots. We should see actual treatment options come out soon. A vaccine is still a year or more away, but treatment options will be available much sooner. Biggest thing is we need to start testing way more people and quarantine from there.

That's exactly what Singapore, SK, and certain towns in Italy are doing. Extensive mandatory testing and contact tracing is eliminating cases more efficiently than anything else.

 

[Andysol]

I like most of your post, but did want to respond to two things specifically.

National lock down and hard crack down on travel, likely 8-15 weeks (based off of China timeframe)

America is not China.
The Chinese government welded people in their buildings and homes.
That will not happen in America.
If Americans decide to go out, they will; without fear of getting imprisoned.

Not arguing one way or the other, just describing the difference between cultures as well as the government. Comparing China 1:1 with the US just isn’t accurate (really, any country w/ the US).
American’s defiant nature yields both amazing and negative outcomes.

This is definitely one of the defining moments of the century, but with climate change I unfortunately think this will be far down the top 10.

The ironic thing is the longer this goes on and impacts the global economy, the better it is for climate in the short term. But it will have devastating long term impacts if worldwide poverty increases. And it’s moving that way more and more daily as the economy is shut down.
Cheap but dirty energy. Burnings. And people who are just trying to live to the next day are all going to increase in rapid scale.
When the global economy is better and people are lifted out of abject poverty, individuals start caring about things beyond themselves; like climate.

 

[randompixel]

Social distancing may be needed for ‘most of year’

The government's scientific advisers say this will help to limit the spread of coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Social distancing may be needed for ‘most of year’
Social distancing would be needed for "at least half of the year" to stop intensive care units being overwhelmed, according to the government's scientific advisers.
...
We are in this for the long haul.
The science that has informed government strategy shows we can expect disruption to our lives for most of the next 12 months.
More than half that time is expected to involve the strict measures in place now, which include school closures.
This won't all be in one go, instead the heavy restrictions will come and go in order to manage the number of cases.
The government's aim is to prevent one massive spike in infections that would completely overwhelm intensive care.
If that happens then death rates would soar as the sickest patients would not get the treatment they need.
Instead the strategy will be to have a series of smaller, manageable peaks.
It should save lives, but the cost is widespread disruption to society for some time to come.
...

This seems to be a growing theory; one I think that plays equally on both sides of the pond.

 

[Teebin]

.

 

[viking_wizard_eyes]

Social distancing may be needed for ‘most of year’

The government's scientific advisers say this will help to limit the spread of coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

This seems to be a growing theory; one I think that plays equally on both sides of the pond.

This is what I kinda of expect, too. It's a choice between: A) Lots of social distancing, restrictions and widespread inconvenience for 10-12 months, or B) A complete and total collapse of the global economy and giant step toward eventual human extinction. Make the choice.

I mean, I'm being facetious, but really--we either make sacrifices now in order to help restore the lives we know, which is still entirely possible at this point, or we don't, and things are completely changed forever.

 

[Grabnar]

I like most of your post, but did want to respond to two things specifically.

America is not China.
The Chinese government welded people in their buildings and homes.
That will not happen in America.
If Americans decide to go out, they will; without fear of getting imprisoned.

Not arguing one way or the other, just describing the difference between cultures as well as the government. Comparing China 1:1 with the US just isn’t accurate (really, any country w/ the US).
American’s defiant nature yields both amazing and negative outcomes.

Yeah, I agree that we wouldn't be at that point, at least for covid-19. I'd expect a response where all non-essential and most service industry businesses are closed for 2-3 month timeframe to discourage things, but wider national parks and things in nature are still open as long as people are not crowded like those beaches in FL were.

 

[JoeCamel]

I feel confident that Disney Mickey and Minnie protective face masks with spangles are on the drawing board right now and will be sold at all parks.

We all gonna look silly when we find out that snorting pixie dust is the antidote...

 

[HalfGlass]

Social distancing may be needed for ‘most of year’

The government's scientific advisers say this will help to limit the spread of coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

This seems to be a growing theory; one I think that plays equally on both sides of the pond.

I'm not saying this can't happen...but this feels like it is written as if no anti-viral or medications that shorten or reduce symptoms will be produced in the next year. Most of the articles and evaluations being released right now are judging circumstances with no assumptions of innovation or breakthroughs (obviously because they can't be predicted yet). I would venture to guess we will not be in dire straits with community spread 9-10 months from now. I can totally see people going back to the normal routine and if you get sick - there is an anti-viral med you take and isolate for 7 days.

Not minimizing this or saying we shouldn't be concerned or worried...I'm just saying this is usually what happens when tragedy hits with uncertainty. Scientists, doctors and politicians will always say "how bad it can get" to strike fear and motivation into people to act now, including the private sector with new meds. I would love to go back and see how SARS articles or N1H1 reports ended up being way overblown compared to what actually transpired.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

For a saner response check out Bill Gate's AMA

Bill Gates addresses coronavirus fears and hopes in AMA | TechCrunch

Bill Gates, newly free from his role on the Microsoft board, has taken to Reddit to answer the community's questions about the pandemic, the government

techcrunch.com

 

[viking_wizard_eyes]

For a saner response check out Bill Gate's AMA

Bill Gates addresses coronavirus fears and hopes in AMA | TechCrunch

Bill Gates, newly free from his role on the Microsoft board, has taken to Reddit to answer the community's questions about the pandemic, the government

techcrunch.com

Not to be a jerk, but Bill Gates is not an epidemiologist. He's obviously smart person, but he's not an authority here. Having billions of dollars doesn't make you an expert on everything. I will keep listening to the medical professionals, not the computer software guys.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Not to be a jerk, but Bill Gates is not an epidemiologist. He's obviously smart person, but he's not an authority here. Having billions of dollars doesn't make you an expert on everything. I will keep listening to the medical professionals, not the computer software guys.

Not to be a jerk, but you didn't read anything did you?

You are right he's not an epidemiologist yet he's spearheading funding through The Gates Foundation to fight malaria, HIV, TB, Pneumonia, and other infectious diseases. He has worked with scientists to understand these issues and issue grants for TWENTY YEARS. In 2017 him and his foundation were part of the founding of the CEPI (Coalition of Epidemic Preparedness Institute). If there's someone who isn't a scientist or epidemiologist I'd trust on this it'd be Bill Gates.

 

[viking_wizard_eyes]

They’ll let anyone do a TED Talk about anything. Like, literally anyone, literally anything. Especially a rich and famous person who will attract viewers. Again, having billions of dollars doesn’t make him an expert. I’m glad he researches public health and infectious diseases, and his donations have probably made things easier for public organizations to fight this, but the point stands. We need to stop ceding authority to people just because they have money. It’s cool that Bill Gates turned fighting infectious disease into an expensive hobby, but I am going to listen to people who are actual authorities on this subject. That’s all I’m trying to say. If Bill Gates is a beacon of hope for you at the moment, god bless ya.

 

[Brian G.]

They’ll let anyone do a TED Talk about anything. Like, literally anyone, literally anything. Especially a rich and famous person who will attract viewers. Again, having billions of dollars doesn’t make him an expert. I’m glad he researches public health and infectious diseases, and his donations have probably made things easier for public organizations to fight this, but the point stands. We need to stop ceding authority to people just because they have money. It’s cool that Bill Gates turned fighting infectious disease into an expensive hobby, but I am going to listen to people who are actual authorities on this subject. That’s all I’m trying to say. If Bill Gates is a beacon of hope for you at the moment, god bless ya.

I don’t think it’s any reason to completely dismiss him, either. You can hear advice from both the leading authorities and Gates.