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Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

  • Thread starter Thread starter Nick
  • Start date Start date Feb 15, 2020
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Andysol

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  • May 5, 2020
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quinnmac000 said:
Chinese people embraced the suck
Click to expand...
Didn’t many smaller parks including LEGO land reopen like a month ago and then subsequently closed up again?

SeventyOne said:
Re: masks. I get the desire for a magic bullet. But having worn a mask in upper 80s Florida humidity yesterday, this isn't it as far as theme parks go. Instantaneously renders glasses/sunglasses useless. And if the out-of-shape American general public is required to wear them around a park in August, guests are going to either drop from heat exhaustion (a far more immediate issue than COVID) or take them off in desperation. The parks will cover themselves with strongly worded disclaimers. But I just don't see masks being a viable solution in Orlando.

(By all mean please continue to wear them in grocery stores etc.)

:ears:

Re: reservations at WDW. The crowds aren't coming back for a while. Self-selecting fans on Twitter and message boards are not a reliable sample group. We're in a Depression with a third of workers unemployed, foreign guests are blocked out of the country for the foreseeable future, and a substantial number of domestic residents who still can afford rent are scared to leave their home, let alone get on a flying metal cootie tube. The CPs are all gone. Orlando residents are already starting to move out because even more than 30% are unemployed. Retirees (a not insignificant population in Florida) are being told not to visit.

If the Mouse could pull 25% of MK's capacity he'd dance up and down Main Street naked.
Click to expand...
Great post all around. I didn’t even consider heat exhaustion.
We know outside significantly slows the risk of spread (though not at a crowded theme park)- maybe they do a hybrid when you have to wear it for indoor rides? But then you have a germ magnet on your face that you’re taking on and off constantly. Unless they supply them?
Theaters, restaurants, retail... even barbers- I can see viable solutions.
Theme parks? It just seems an impossible task. I think it’s going to come down to- “are you ok with a 20% chance (or whatever) of getting COVID to go to Disneyworld”? I simply can’t see it not being an incubator.
 
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Lucky Planet

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OhHaiInternet95 said:
So. What year do we think we'll realistically get to have an at least mostly normal HHN? Whenever it is, it'll be the 30th, and they'll likely have gone a year without it. I would expect them to pull out all the stops to make it special.
Click to expand...

i will tell you, i thought about it.
we will only have a normal HHN until a vaccine is ready.
thats truly the only way, wether they do open hhn this year or not, it will not go back to normal until theres a full working vaccine and the fear of sickness goes away completely.
i think thats the most likely situation. they might open this year, but we wont see a full real event until the vaccine rolls around, theres just no other way, theres just no other way. :/
we all love hhn deeply but who knows. even if they open this year, its too risky

HandsomePete said:
What I'm about to say is absurd because I know it doesn't work this way and I suspect it's either a go/no go decision, but if they ran a dialed back version this year and called it HHN 29.5, I'd be the first in line to buy a t-shirt. Would give the marketing people double ammo with still 30 in the bank for next year.
Click to expand...
Nick said:
I just don't see how HHN can possibly happen this year. HHN is like a close-contact sport. Applying the 6 foot social distancing really leaves it so you can only have a bunch of people on stages in the streets and bare bones houses I guess? If you were to run HHN as usual, there's normally 25-30 people in a house per cast, sometimes upwards of 40 if you have a megahouse. That's all in tight spaces and you have Events ops people around every corner and there's very little way to limit contact between a performer and a guest. They can also try and pulse the houses, but people still end up on top of each other. It's inevitable.

They could run a very bare bones event this year, but the problem becomes, will people still show up like they used to? No. Some will stay home that otherwise would go. And they'd be putting on an inferior product, so do they charge less? Do you really waste some ideas you had planned for a grand 30th year on a year that will turn into a dud? It'll be interesting.
Click to expand...

i know this sounds stupid. for sure, but one possible way they could open HHN houses is if all the scares came from puppets or animatronics or props. have the boo holes with marionettes or ghosts or dollies and mannequins and stuff. (operated by the actors from behind)
i know it wouldnt be great to have all houses with props and puppets, or maybe not practical, or maybe too expensive. but it would be ONE way to safely have houses this year.
just have a bunch of demons and ghoulies jump at people with pulleys lol.


Nick said:
If the masks are provided and you must wear them to enter the park though, then it's a different story.

A theme park is different than a public beach, etc. On a beach, they can only give out recommendations for wearing a mask or something like that. At the parks, you play by their rules or potentially don't get to go in.
Click to expand...
Scott W. said:
The public just aren't going to follow it. Security can tell them off but they'll just keep doing it.

Also for any photo moments, the masks will be off. For those people on their once in a life time trip, they don't want masks in their photos.
Click to expand...
quinnmac000 said:
Boo who. If I'm Disney, My business my choice on who I serve. If someone wants to complain about having to wearing a mask, they don't have to visit. The same people complaining about masks would be the first to sue to if they got COVID at the parks.
Click to expand...
quinnmac000 said:
I'm going to say something unpopular but it needs to be said.

Chinese people embraced the suck, Koreans embraced the suck. Now these two countries are opening up. (almost everything is open in Korea including theme parks with people going to them). Embrace the suck in the states get the numbers down and then you can go out and do what you want.
Click to expand...

well our american news media constantly told people that "masks dont work and dont protect" over and over for 2 months,
so now there are a lot of people that refuse to wear any protection, when i go to walmart or publix i always see people laughing at the others wearing masks.
or give you weirded out looks. we've been laughed at. ive tried to tell people online to cover up but they said it makes no difference.
at least in Asia they knew better. they covered up. distance themselves. they wore masks
in here in USA as soon as the beaches opened d up they filled up and no one cared about masks. some beaches have had to close again now because people were shoulder to shoulder.

ive tried to convince people to use masks and they wont accept or believe no matter what


Nick said:
...Did you read the article? Disney praises the theater experience, but says due to "COVID and changing consumer habits", they may change a few movies.

Disney is saying they are still very much dedicated to theaters, but this pandemic has forced their hand as they have a lot of movies that need to be released with little room on the theatrical calendar. It was far cry from the comments that came from Jeff Shell.
Click to expand...
Nick said:
I often disagree with you, but man, this couldn't be more spot on imo.

Even worse than people not embracing it is that when in public, many aren't wearing masks. So not only are they not embracing, they're just straight up ignoring... which inevitably will prolong this situation here in the states.
Click to expand...

something interesting that Grace Randolph said on youtube is that in her opinion, making kids keep their masks on would be really hard, and i kind of agree.
the FL heat wluld make it hard to breathe in the parks and kids would have a hard time dealing with them. specially little ones, and i see her point. also how wpuld the parks know that people will keep them on? how to enforce the mask when guests are inside?

kids would be really hard to deal with and the masks.
 
Last edited: May 6, 2020
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HandsomePete

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Mad Dog said:
One issue that I received from a media insider. He said ESPN received considerable upfront money from major corporate sponsors prior to the covid closings for events that have since been cancelled. These major corporate sponsors demanded that Disney return the fees but Disney has been unable to recompense due to their cash flow issues. Those debts are not yet accounted for, and will probably either have to be paid or owed, plus bonus times, used against future fees. So, ESPN is probably in deep arrears. And then there's ABC and all those cable stations that are experiencing greatly reduced ad revenue.
Click to expand...
Yeah, none of that passes the sniff test of how things actually work. Upfront presentations are in May and then sales run like two months... if you sell ads and take the cash then, it increases your current assets but you offset it with a current liability. That would be in the balance sheet in today's report, or February's Q1 report for that matter, but there's not some time bomb there. "Those debts are not yet accounted for" is utter nonsense.

Not to even begin with the notion that they haven't missed out on any marquee events excluding the first two days of the Masters, which 1) the club does all below market value and 2) has been rescheduled. The NFL Draft went forward with record ratings. They've missed out on regular season NBA, early season MLB, and the usual talk show swirl around NBA/March Madness. Right now they're showing Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS - you don't even need to sell ads when all it takes is an intern hitting the play button for you to collect your ~$800,000,000 in sub fees a month.

While things obviously aren't all sunshine and lollypops right now, the notion that Disney is in this catastrophic cash crunch is just the wet dream of people who can't read a balance sheet. I'm also a little confused how your media insider doesn't seem to understand how insanely expensive it is to cover and produce live events.
 
Last edited: May 6, 2020
Mad Dog

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HandsomePete said:
Yeah, none of that passes the sniff test of how things actually work. Upfront presentations are in May and then sales run like two months... if you sell ads and take the cash then, it increases your current assets but you offset it with a current liability. That would be in the balance sheet in today's report, or February's Q1 report for that matter, but there's not some time bomb there. "Those debts are not yet accounted for" is utter nonsense.

Not to even begin with the notion that they haven't missed out on any marquee events excluding the first two days of the Masters, which 1) the club does all below market value and 2) has been rescheduled. The NFL Draft went forward with record ratings. They've missed out on regular season NBA, early season MLB, and the usual talk show swirl around NBA/March Madness. Right now they're showing Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS - you don't even need to sell ads when all it takes is an intern hitting the play button for you to collect your ~$800,000,000 in sub fees a month.

While things obviously aren't all sunshine and lollypops right now, the notion that Disney is in this catastrophic cash crunch is just the wet dream of people who can't read a balance sheet.
Click to expand...
The cash crunch comments are coming from professional business analysts that appeared on CNBC, not me. That's why the suspension of dividends worried them. The insider info on the up front ad payments is solid and I don't doubt it because the source is solid. I used to purchase ad time for a studio and I have good contacts, plus knowledge of the process. ESPN financial issues expected for this quarter are reflected in the significant wage cuts and staff reductions taken last month. .
 
Last edited: May 6, 2020
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Jerroddragon

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SeventyOne said:
Re: masks. I get the desire for a magic bullet. But having worn a mask in upper 80s Florida humidity yesterday, this isn't it as far as theme parks go. Instantaneously renders glasses/sunglasses useless. And if the out-of-shape American general public is required to wear them around a park in August, guests are going to either drop from heat exhaustion (a far more immediate issue than COVID) or take them off in desperation. The parks will cover themselves with strongly worded disclaimers. But I just don't see masks being a viable solution in Orlando.

(By all mean please continue to wear them in grocery stores etc.)

:ears:

Re: reservations at WDW. The crowds aren't coming back for a while. Self-selecting fans on Twitter and message boards are not a reliable sample group. We're in a Depression with a third of workers unemployed, foreign guests are blocked out of the country for the foreseeable future, and a substantial number of domestic residents who still can afford rent are scared to leave their home, let alone get on a flying metal cootie tube. The CPs are all gone. Orlando residents are already starting to move out because even more than 30% are unemployed. Retirees (a not insignificant population in Florida) are being told not to visit.

If the Mouse could pull 25% of MK's capacity he'd dance up and down Main Street naked.
Click to expand...
I know I don't have a sample size....and live nearish Disneyland but everyone I talk to can't wait to go to Disneyland.
Like they all think its going to have no crowds and are bored out of their minds....so I don't know maybe Flordia will have issues but think Disneyland and even DCA (if Spiderman is open) will fill up daily
 
Brian G.

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Jerroddragon said:
I know I don't have a sample size....and live nearish Disneyland but everyone I talk to can't wait to go to Disneyland.
Like they all think its going to have no crowds and are bored out of their minds....so I don't know maybe Flordia will have issues but think Disneyland and even DCA (if Spiderman is open) will fill up daily
Click to expand...

You’re crazy if you think the parks will fill up daily. There will be initial rush because everyone is going stir crazy, but it will not be crowded at all.
 
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Nick

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Brian G. said:
You’re crazy if you think the parks will fill up daily. There will be initial rush because everyone is going stir crazy, but it will not be crowded at all.
Click to expand...
Especially a park the size of Disneyland. I'm imagining there will be parts of the park that are usually packed that will be eerily quiet. It'll make the Post-SWGE crowds seem gigantic from a pure numbers standpoint, i'd imagine.
 
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Clive

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I’m sorry, but this “embrace the suck” rhetoric is nonsensical and insulting to the people who have taken this seriously. Even I, someone who has been critical of the approach and specifics of the lockdowns, have nonetheless been complying with all local regulations.

South Korea managed to “embrace the suck” because they had a competent, proactive government that got ahead of the problem and supported individuals. China managed to “embrace the suck” because they’re an authoritarian regime that disappears people who criticize them and locks people into infected buildings.

The United States’s federal government failed to “embrace the suck,” not individuals, for the most part. People have largely complied with the lockdown. It didn’t buy us much of anything because our government failed us. Blaming the individual on this is about as useful or accurate for blaming individuals for climate change (instead of directing blame where it belongs: the government and its regulations).
 
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Fallow said:
I’m sorry, but this “embrace the suck” rhetoric is nonsensical and insulting to the people who have taken this seriously. Even I, someone who has been critical of the approach and specifics of the lockdowns, have nonetheless been complying with all local regulations.

South Korea managed to “embrace the suck” because they had a competent, proactive government that got ahead of the problem and supported individuals. China managed to “embrace the suck” because they’re an authoritarian regime that disappears people who criticize them and locks people into infected buildings.

The United States’s federal government failed to “embrace the suck,” not individuals, for the most part. People have largely complied with the lockdown. It didn’t buy us much of anything because our government failed us. Blaming the individual on this is about as useful or accurate for blaming individuals for climate change (instead of directing blame where it belongs: the government and its regulations).
Click to expand...
If that's what he meant, then I retract my statement. I took the "embrace the suck" comment to mean people need to suck it up and either stay home or wear masks when out in public, because it does suck. But it's necessary.
 
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OhHaiInternet95

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The thing is, I don’t think we should assume there’s ever going to be a vaccine. If the event truly needs a vaccine to happen, I don’t think it will again.

The truth is I see it as a gradual process where testing and treatments become more and more widespread. Reopening is a dial not a switch. Combined with more and more people simply becoming immune to it, I see it fading away over time.
 
Nick

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"Retirement"

I'm sure Phil Holmes was one of the higher paid VPs due to his long tenure and he's likely being highly encouraged to leave in order to save the company money.
blogmickey.com

Disney's Hollywood Studios VP Phil Holmes to Retire in August

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond
blogmickey.com blogmickey.com
 
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It's important for Disney that they somehow get a little luck and they can generate enough revenue to keep their stock price up. They've already dropped over 35%, while most of the market has largely rebounded. Ideal scenario for them would be an early vaccine/new treatments where they can get people feeling safer and subsequently their parks operating in the black. It's doubtful their films could reach past blockbuster numbers if the theaters social distance for a long time, but anything substantial will help since the production costs, if high, were already paid for. And if the economy picks up and opens up, ad revenue , especially with the help of a Presidential election year spending, may recuperate by August. Lots of Big Ifs there. But if the stars don't align, and their stock drops significantly, they will be ripe for a hostile takeover. There's a couple of huge firms which would probably love to add Disney to their empire.....Suspension of their dividend was a real red flag that surprised analysts. But it probably was a move Disney had to make.
 
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Nick

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Mad Dog said:
It's important for Disney that they somehow get a little luck and they can generate enough revenue to keep their stock price up. They've already dropped over 35%, while most of the market has largely rebounded. Ideal scenario for them would be an early vaccine/new treatments where they can get people feeling safer and subsequently their parks operating in the black. It's doubtful their films could reach past blockbuster numbers if the theaters social distance for a long time, but anything substantial will help since the production costs, if high, were already paid for. And if the economy picks up and opens up, ad revenue , especially with the help of a Presidential election year spending, may recuperate by August. Lots of Big Ifs there. But if the stars don't align, and their stock drops significantly, they will be ripe for a hostile takeover. There's a couple of huge firms which would probably love to add Disney to their empire.....Suspension of their dividend was a real red flag that surprised analysts. But it probably was a move Disney had to make.
Click to expand...
Once all the parks are back open and the DCL is sailing again the stock will likely bounce back. Right now with the Parks closed, they're taking a huge hit.
 
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ssirin88

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Walking around our neighborhood in South Florida yesterday at 7pm while wearing masks, the heat became too much after 30 minutes. Having facial hair definitely makes it worse as well, made it even harder to breathe comfortable under a mask.

I cannot imagine doing this at a theme park in the summer or fall for sustained periods of time.
 
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Andysol

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Lucky Planet said:
at least in Asia they knew better. they covered up. distance themselves. they wore masks
Click to expand...
It’s cultural for most of the countries there. And it’s almost always been about the courtesy of not spreading vs not contracting.
So to think Americans are going to pick up on a culturally Asian thing? Hah
Though I’ve been pretty pleased with what I’ve seen in the few times I’ve ventured in my community. I don’t understand why some employees don’t. And I’d say roughly 70% have masks.
It needs to get to the point where you’re essentially shaming people into wearing a mask. When 95% of the people have one, and you don’t, you should feel awkward and like you don’t fit in. My fear is it will start to go the other way, where 95% of people wont be wearing it. Though that isn’t the case yet where I’m at, luckily. Also; anecdotally; young people seem to wear them at a slightly higher percentage with very old (what are they doing out?!?) behind them. Boomers seem to wear the least, but I’d still say the majority do.
Lucky Planet said:
in here in USA as soon as the beaches opened d up they filled up and no one cared about masks. some beaches have had to close again now because people were shoulder to shoulder.
Click to expand...
No way I’m wearing a mask on a beach. If I went to a beach that was crowded to the point it would require a mask, I just wouldn’t go. It’d be miserable.
Lucky Planet said:
something interesting that Grace Randolph said on youtube is that in her opinion, making kids keep their masks on would be really hard, and i kind of agree.
the FL heat wluld make it hard to breathe in the parks and kids would have a hard time dealing with them. specially little ones, and i see her point. also how wpuld the parks know that people will keep them on? how to enforce the mask when guests are inside?

kids would be really hard to deal with and the masks.
Click to expand...
The 3 separate studies and Sweden’s data on young children (<12-14) that has come out the past 2-3 weeks has been fascinating.
TLDR; there are very low odds kids can transfer it to each other or to adults. The vast majority of children who have gotten COVID have received it from adults, not the other way around.
Hindsight all but shows we could have kept elementary and middle schools open without almost any increased risk of infection.
This, of course, would’ve reduced the stress of the health care workers or just general citizens (and especially impoverished kids). Any change creates stressors, so that constant would have been nice. Of course, it’s too late now to reopen (though Trump’s thought to reopen didn’t surprise me. And it would surprise me if he tried to push for it. Any opportunity to piss off half the country and galvanize the other half, he’ll usually take).
But... we did the best with the information we had at the time, as did the rest of the world. Had a certain country not been covering up data for months, maybe we would’ve had more information and schools would’ve stayed open.

Yes- all of that was “General COVID” territory. And I apologize. But I said all that for this:
Kids do not possess the same level of risk or spread of transmission as adults. What (all) of our original thoughts were was “kids are disease spreaders”- and that always been the case. Except this weird ass one named COVID where it’s opposite and seemingly makes no sense.
So, maybe kids 12 and under don’t have to wear masks at all. The argument could be made that you having to help adjust your child’s contaminated mask (where they’ve touched everything and then their mask) is more of a risk then them simply not wearing one.
Jerroddragon said:
Like they all think its going to have no crowds and are bored out of their minds
Click to expand...
Nick said:
It'll make the Post-SWGE crowds seem gigantic from a pure numbers standpoint, i'd imagine.
Click to expand...
This does sound very appealing. Even with masks, no? Which Is why I agree with @brian that we’ll see an initial surge. But I think the majority of the rest of the country will look at them like they’re psychopaths and it’ll die off very quickly.
If Six Flags follows through opening up in Mid May, that will give us a heads up. I’m not sure if there’s a social demographic change of who goes to Disneyland or who goes to magic mountain. But in Arlington (Tarrant County)- it’s primarily what most would describe as “blue collar”. I guess I’d call it the NASCAR and WWE crowd? Not that there’s anything wrong with that; but in my experience, they are much less likely to worry about things and would be more willing to go with the typical WDW traveler who is typically more sensitive.
I don’t know how to describe it without someone getting their panties in a twist, so maybe that proves my point about the sensitivity... lol.
Think of Six Flags as the guy who works on your AC and WDW as your barista. Obviously there’s tons of crossover with each, but my point is- if the crowds don’t show up at six flags mid March, then disney is Fd.
Nick said:
I'm sure Phil Holmes was one of the higher paid VPs due to his long tenure and he's likely being highly encouraged to leave in order to save the company money.
blogmickey.com

Disney's Hollywood Studios VP Phil Holmes to Retire in August

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond
blogmickey.com blogmickey.com
Click to expand...
Why do I feel this is the first of many dominos.

Do you think some of the older lead CMs in charge of lands who have been there 20-30 years are gonna “retire” also?
Nick said:
Once all the parks are back open and the DCL is sailing again the stock will likely bounce back. Right now with the Parks closed, they're taking a huge hit.
Click to expand...
I agree. And even if not at capacity, just being “open” is good for optics. Especially with outside investors.
ssirin88 said:
Walking around our neighborhood in South Florida yesterday at 7pm while wearing masks, the heat became too much after 30 minutes. Having facial hair definitely makes it worse as well, made it even harder to breathe comfortable under a mask.
Click to expand...
Just curious- any reason why you’re wearing it while walking outside? Or were you experimenting.
Magic Mountain said that masks would be required when they reopen. But the 2 six flags in Texas? Hah. People are going to die of heat stroke in the park if masks are required. I see no way possible there’s no incubator effect at these parks without reducing attendance to some unrealistic number (10%?). We’ll see...
 
Last edited: May 6, 2020
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Imperius

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No one should be wearing a mask if all you’re doing is walking around outside. It really doesn’t spread well outdoors and you can easily distance outside. It’s a waste of your time and energy doing it.
 
Last edited: May 6, 2020
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Imperius said:
No one should be wearing a mask of all you’re doing is walking around outside. It really doesn’t spread well outdoors and you can easily distance outside. It’s a waste of your time and energy doing it.
Click to expand...

I mean, if you're doing your best to distance, yea. But in a setting where people would be close, such as a parade viewing, you absolutely should be wearing one.
 
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Imperius

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Joined
Feb 28, 2015
Messages
3,918
  • May 6, 2020
  • #2,558
JungleSkip said:
I mean, if you're doing your best to distance, yea. But in a setting where people would be close, such as a parade viewing, you absolutely should be wearing one.
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Not talking about in parks really. Mean more people saying they are going for walks around the neighborhood and don’t see other wearing them. That really isn’t a scenario where masks make sense. If Disney opens and stupidly decides to do parades and night time shows? Yeah people need them.
 
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ssirin88

ssirin88

Minion
Joined
Sep 9, 2019
Messages
830
Age
37
  • May 6, 2020
  • #2,559
Andysol said:
Just curious- any reason why you’re wearing it while walking outside? Or were you experimenting.
Magic Mountain said that masks would be required when they reopen. But the 2 six flags in Texas? Hah. People are going to die of heat stroke in the park if masks are required. I see no way possible there’s no incubator effect at these parks without reducing attendance to some unrealistic number (10%?). We’ll see...
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Just being extra cautious. We have a downtown area in our town that still has some people getting takeout for restaurants, so we still pass by pockets of people.
 
Mad Dog

Mad Dog

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V.I.P. Member
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Messages
23,933
Location
Pittsburgh area
  • May 6, 2020
  • #2,560
Until the Pa. governor 'ordered' everyone to wear masks a couple of weeks ago, very few in the Monongahela River Valley were wearing them here, and the weather hasn't even warmed up. What little there was, was kind of opposite the demographic's exposure to death. Some of the he 20/30 somethings had them on but very very few of the older demographics, even though they are the ones at a significantly higher risk. Same with most of the surveys I've seen around here that broke down the age brackets. The older people weren't really scared while the younger ages expressed more fear. My guess is generally that the older a person is the more they've been through in life and tough events don't have as strong, or scary, an effect on them.
 
Last edited: May 6, 2020
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