Quite true. Remember when Universal opened Harry Potter didn't even exist yet - and the book series was less than 2 years old when IOA opened.
That's one way of looking at it. I tend to look at it this way: the Harry Potter franchise was roughly 10 years old before opening at IOA.
TLDR: precedence says its more likely we've already heard of whatever IPs are coming as future attractions... but maybe things are changing.
Full post below if you want to read on...
Universal tends to choose franchises that have been around for a while. Here are some examples of IPs which were 20+ years old when the attraction/land opened:
- Toon Lagoon
- Marvel
- Nintendo (Mario / Donkey Kong, and the rumored Zelda / Pokemon)
- Bourne - film will almost be 20 once it opens, based on a book from 1980
- Monsters (at Fantastic Worlds)
- Kong
- Seuss
- Themes/characters in Lost Continent
- Alfred Hitchcock
- Woody the Woodpecker
- Curious George
- Hanna Barbera
- Simpsons
- The Tonight Show (I argue this is more "Tonight Show" (which premiered 1954) than "Fallon" (who premiered on The Tonight Show in 2014), considering the entrance to the ride shows the long history of the show)
10+ years:
- Jaws
- Harry Potter
- How to Train Your Dragon (we assume it's coming to Fantastic Worlds, will put it at 10+)
- Kung Fu Panda (coming 2020 or 2021 in Beijing, film was 2008)
- Terminator: franchise started in 1984 with The Terminator, attraction opened in 1996
- Earthquake
5+ years:
- Jurassic Park
- Revenge of the Mummy (film: 1999, ride: 2004)
- Fast and Furious (almost 10 years)
- Fievel (not sure when the play area opened, but the first movie was 1986)
- ET
- Murder She Wrote
- Back to the Future
There are some exceptions which were younger than 5 years:
- Shrek: film released in 2001, ride in 2003
- Secret Lives of Pets: film in 2016, ride to open in Hollywood soonish
- Twister: film in 1996, ride in 1998
- Back-draft: film in 1991, ride in 1992. (Fun fact - they are apparently producing a sequel)
- Waterworld: film in 1995, show in Hollywood in same year
- Fear Factor: show in 2001, attraction in 2005
- Barney: show in 1991, attraction in 1995
- Despicable Me: film 2010, attraction in 2012
- Transformers: film in 2007, ride in 2011 in Singapore and Hollywood in 2012, though the IP as a whole is over 20 years old (cartoon in 1987)
- MIB: film in 1997, ride in 2000
- Jimmy Neutron: show in 2002, ride in 2003
While I agree that there's always a chance that Universal goes with something completely brand new, the precedence demonstrates that it's more likely we've already heard of it.
... I'll go ahead and poke some holes in my own argument...
1) Times are changing... Universal (and possibly Disney) believe people want newer IPs rather than nostalgic IPs. I don't have any hard evidence on this, but I could see someone making this argument and it just feels true.
2) One could argue, "All the old stuff has already been used, now they'll have to use newer stuff"... this is especially true if some of the unused IPs are never going to get signed (Star Trek, Godzilla, Lord of the Rings, Willa Wonka, Stephen King). I guess the counter point to this is that there's still tons out there, and maybe we just aren't thinking outside the box (whoever thought Bourne would be an attraction?).
3) From what I've read, Universal theme parks/Creative is trying to partner with their movie production teams to pipeline rides (I believe the first would be The Voyage of Doctor Dolittle (film in 2020)). If this is true, this could possibly mean a dramatic change - rides opening alongside the movie's release (or shortly thereafter).
Anyway... I agree and disagree.