Frankly, since we're bringing Disney into the mix, let's look at MNSSHP.
Jack and Sally's meet & greet consistently hits 3+ hour wait times throughout the event because it's a fan favorite similar to Stranger Things/The Last of Us at HHN. This is despite the fact that ticketing sells out quickly, multi-night passes don't exist, the event has 4 shows, 22 attractions are open, and has over 20 other meet & greets available. The rides typically have bare minimum wait times and do little to draw people away from this fan favorite meet & greet.
No matter what HHN introduces, I truly don't think you're suddenly going to see something like Stranger Things stop having 2 hour waits. People aren't going to trade their limited event time seeing a second or third show over the property that got them to buy their ticket in the first place.
I avoided comparing MNSSHP since that's a completely different type of experience/event. A good chunk of people are there for the parades and firework shows (high-capacity) with not as much demand for M&Gs (they can only handle a few hundred guests or so an hour).
M&G's and PoTC are at different ends of the capacity spectrum. A M&G can
barely handle 100 guests an hour... Pirates is a people eater at 2.5K+ guests an hour. I can guarantee the number of people in line for the Jack M&G would only be about a 10-minute wait at Pirates.
The IP houses will always have 2-hour waits, no issue about that, but what about everyone else who doesn't want to wait 120 minutes? Where else do they go if they want to do HHN-specific attractions and kind of just want to sit down for a bit to watch a show? If Universal knows people are going to end up waiting in ST anyway... could they at least provide entertainment in the queue?
If Nightmare Fuel wasn't filling to capacity 15-20 minutes prior to every showtime, a new show wouldn't be needed.
I don’t think you’re grasping the capacity issue. Say we’re handling 20k guests between the present lineup. Let’s say you add 2 shows - you’re now having 25k go through the same walkways. Compare it to a plumbing situation - if the main pipe is getting clogged up, you don’t add an extra pipe - you widen it. A show doesnt “widen it.”
First of all, I doubt a show increases attendance 25% YoY lol. But, let's say you do go from 20K to 25K a night...
While I'm not a master at data, nor do I have actual data from Universal, I'm pretty confident in my wait-time model below:
At 20K guests, with the current HHN lineup, house wait-times average 50.5 (reduced to 41.0 with a show at Bourne & AA)
At 25K guests, with the current HHN lineup, house wait-times average 66.5 (reduced to 57.0 with a show at Bourne & AA)
Not to mention you move people throughout the park a bit better and take them away from the overcrowded hubs of HNF & NY.
People keep talking about more shows as a quick crowding fix, but I’m pretty Bill and Ted had issues with not fitting everyone in the queue, even they had additional shows. A big reason for that was the shows they could actually put in the other venues (which couldn’t change sets because of daytime shows), never reached capacity because guests didn’t care.
Let's be honest... some of the previous HHN shows we're not that great lol. But word got around the HNF is a solid show... so if they're able to deliver on another solid show, that's more utilized capacity.
Sure, I don't know what goes backstage, but I really think not being able to use a theater due to a daytime show is just a poor excuse. They have a smart creative team that I'm sure has plentiful ideas, they just need approval and a different mindset when it comes to the event.
Rocky horror and the magic show never filled up bettlejuice theater. I remember .
I guess that's why an extra house or some kind of meet and greet lounge or something like that would work more ? ( I know logistics and space for an extra house are impossible)
But if anything, technically, an extra house " would " be more effective than a show people dont care about. ( I know an extra house is not actually possible. I'm just saying that houses will always have more demand than shows
I don't think an extra house will work from a demand perspective. No doubt it'll eat up people, but even on busy days Blood Moon, Darkest Deal and Monsters have moments where they drop to 20-30 (actual, not posted) minute waits... showing that there's demand for
something else.
Will say, I know it was rumored months back and I didn't think the demand was there yet, but this year might convince them to run the event all nights of October, or a few Monday/Tuesday nights (if staffing allows). Assuming it's not lightning in a bottle with the IP lineup.