But Mad Dog, you know that “intent” isn’t a determining factor in the Laws of the Game. I don’t have the length of experience you have, but I did ref for several years (including international youth competitions) and played at a pretty high level for my age (national select teams in overseas tournaments). Balogun’s foul (it was a foul) *was* reckless. The fatigue actually emphasizes the recklessness (which we know is why more cards come out late). That sets the floor at a yellow and immediately makes intent even more irrelevant than it was. Subjectively, it could have seriously injured the B&H. Not “did,” but “could have.” That, to me, makes it a serious foul and a makes a red justified. Because, ultimately, if the ankle HAD broken (because it could have), would you still be saying it didn’t need to be a red? The VAR of it aside (the point of which is to assess fouls from all angles to determine severity - and this does that), I argue its a fair red. Maybe soft, but fair.
But, legitimately, the biggest issue is FIFA suspending the suspension mid-tournament (and now allowing Belgium to appeal the suspension of the suspension). Balogun will STILL have to have to sit out a game. FIFA is not saying it was a BS red (when they have that authority it in the bylaw that lets them suspend the suspension). And, now, France is requesting a rescinded yellow for Olise. The precedent is getting set for cards to become completely irrelevant during the tournament.