Personally hoping for Astrobot to take it, but I'd be happy with Metaphor as well.
-Shadow of the Erdtree straight-up should not qualify. Doesn't matter how big its scope is, it's still a DLC, not a new game (plus Elden Ring already won in 2022!). Silent Hill 2 Remake should've taken its place.
-No offense to Balatro, I'm sure it's a cool game, but there are so many other different contenders that could've gone here, including other indies like Another Crab's Treasure!
-And while Black Myth: Wukong is a great game, I'm rooting for its downfall as the developer is quite a sexist a-hole.