Universal Great Britain - Speculation & Rumors

[Altonsky]

It's also tapped out in capacity, they max out every year (barring the covid year) so whilst it is a steady stream of income it is also a limited stream of income. I have no doubt that Universal pays more per year than the Studio Tour makes and I'm not including royalties either.

Which brings us to UGB, if it had Potter I'm very confident it would bring in more via licensing and royalties than the Studio Tour does, just on the sheer weight of it's increased attendance. But that's something the execs and JK will have to consider here.

The Studio Tour itself may not even need protecting from UGB, it's popularity is such that it could easily live among UGB without seeing a huge drop in visitors. But it's up to Warner whether they want to risk it or not and right now it seems Warner are being cautious and not wanting to risk their stable income.

*edit* I do think the Studio Tour is actually a red herring here. No, I think the crux of the issue lies in Warner Bros probably asking for a far higher licensing fee and royalty rate than what has come before and Universal are reticient to pay those exorbitant amounts when they can replace Potter with LOTR at a drastically reduced amount.

They’re expanding the whole of Leavesden studios aren’t they, I think Warner wanted it to be the home of the DC universe.

I assume they’ll also be filming the new potter show there for ten years.

I also assume they’ll be expanding the studio tour if they have any extra space once they’ve completed the expansion, whether that’s stuff from the movie series or the new tv show who knows. But tbh they’d be stupid not to.

It’s extremely profitable for Warner.

 

[Alicia]

They’re expanding the whole of Leavesden studios aren’t they, I think Warner wanted it to be the home of the DC universe.

I assume they’ll also be filming the new potter show there for ten years.

I also assume they’ll be expanding the studio tour if they have any extra space once they’ve completed the expansion, whether that’s stuff from the movie series or the new tv show who knows. But tbh they’d be stupid not to.

It’s extremely profitable for Warner.

Yep. I believe they have more based on the Potter films in the works too.

 

[yepthatguy]

I took my Harry Potter mad 11yo son to the WB studio tour in March for his birthday. It was ridiculously busy on just a random weekday (lots of school trips) and it was hard to get tickets, they are sold out a few months in advance. I don't think a theme park would take much business from the studios, HP fans are going to want to see both - especially if they're travelling from USA or Europe, or even northern England.

I think there might be a game of negotiations going on behind the scenes here. WB want too much money from Universal for the rights, so Universal have said forget it we'll be successful without HP anyway. hoping WB will reduce their price when they see Universal planning to go ahead without HP. Universal might be secretly thinking if WB drop their price they may include HP afterall. Having HP as an IP would make them all so much money and make the fans so happy it would be mad not to.

*Normal disclaimer of I'm sure it will be a great park whatever, and if they didn't have HP they'd be sure to have other creative, original lands to make up for it. But I really want HP personally - I'd get a season pass for sure. Florida is out of reach financially for my family for now so its not as simple as just go to Florida for HP.

Great post Della.

I agree. My Potter mad 10 year old would want to visit both, even after seeing the Orlando Parks if USGB was built right now.

Another day, another experience is what I’ve learned in terms of my kid’s interests and my bank account happily going down rapidly.

I too think things are being discussed (no movie pun intended) behind the scenes.

 

[BBPH]

Typical visitor data doesn’t suggest this.

Guests don’t tend to visit what they consider to be similar things and this is exactly why the HP Covent Garden photo exhibition failed.

Guests will spend their money going to the better and better value option which naturally will be a fully fledged theme park and full day out.

Warner Bros know this, Universal knows this, I don’t see it happening.

 

[Doug88]

Rumour has it we could have a snap general election announced soon. So that might speed things up.

 

[rob@rar]

Rumour has it we could have a snap general election announced soon. So that might speed things up.

In what way would it speed things up?

 

[Doug88]

In what way would it speed things up?

Because instead of waiting for the new government in September. It would be July any new government would take charge.

 

[Jake S]

Because instead of waiting for the new government in September. It would be July any new government would take charge.

Is there any indication that this project is waiting on a new government? This project seems relatively nonpartisan (given both major parties current get down, anyway)

 

[rob@rar]

Is there any indication that this project is waiting on a new government? This project seems relatively nonpartisan (given both major parties current get down, anyway)

Both major parties seem keen to have the development move ahead. The current Conservative government has agreed to the unprecedented step, for this kind of commercial development, of passing planning permission via the national parliament rather than the local council that would normally handle such matters. Apparently Universal senior Execs (Page Thompson and John McReynolds) have also been in discussion with the main opposition party, Labour (who are likely to form the new government), including party leader Keir Starmer, and undoubtedly will have received a warm welcome. The local MP, from the Labour Party, is extremely supportive.

I don’t think a change of government will have any significant impact on the project going forward, but a general election might cause a pause in the timetable, depending on when the election is held.

 

[rob@rar]

Because instead of waiting for the new government in September. It would be July any new government would take charge.

There is zero chance of a new government doing anything before the summer recess to approve Universal’s plans, there’s just not enough time. So we would be looking at the autumn in any case.

 

[Doug88]

There is zero chance of a new government doing anything before the summer recess to approve Universal’s plans, there’s just not enough time. So we would be looking at the autumn in any case.

I don't mean that. I meant it before hand we would have to wait till September then maybe next year. But now at least it's July and later this year.

 

[rob@rar]

I don't mean that. I meant it before hand we would have to wait till September then maybe next year. But now at least it's July and later this year.

If the PM doesn’t call the election until late October/November I think there would be enough time to approve Universal’s plans before the election is held (if the government wanted to do that), including passing the relevant secondary legislation in parliament. This could include a public consultation on Universal’s planning application before the summer recess. But if there’s a general election on 4 July that timetable will be put on hold until the autumn. I don’t think it will make a big difference, but I can’t see that an early election will make the process happen any quicker.

 

[bedfordmassive]

I think the principle is that a snap election soon is one of the better scenarios - it would allow things to progress on the government side from July with a clear rush and no threat of election.

So, it would potentially only hold things up by a month and avoid problems related to changes of government midway.

 

[xtpower]

Honestly I'm not really bothered when the election is, I just want June to roll around so we can finally get that greenlight decision. In the grand scheme of things I doubt the election's timing changes much of the timeline, maybe a month or two but considering we're not expecting breaking ground til late 2025 at the earliest, it's not a big deal.

 

[rob@rar]

Honestly I'm not really bothered when the election is, I just want June to roll around so we can finally get that greenlight decision. In the grand scheme of things I doubt the election's timing changes much of the timeline, maybe a month or two but considering we're not expecting breaking ground til late 2025 at the earliest, it's not a big deal.

Largely agree with this, although approval of Universal’s plans will give the company complete confidence to commit all the resources they wish to planning the entire project, as soon as they wish. While senior executives like Thompson and McReynolds probably have a good idea of how enthusiastic the current government is to see the project happen (and perhaps how a Labour government would respond), there’s still a risk to getting too far ahead of the legislative process. While breaking ground isn’t expected until late next year, I’d guess a huge amount of work is required before that happens, so as soon as there is certainty about the project being approved by the UK authorities the sooner Universal can commit fully to that effort.

 

[Doug88]

Largely agree with this, although approval of Universal’s plans will give the company complete confidence to commit all the resources they wish to planning the entire project, as soon as they wish. While senior executives like Thompson and McReynolds probably have a good idea of how enthusiastic the current government is to see the project happen (and perhaps how a Labour government would respond), there’s still a risk to getting too far ahead of the legislative process. While breaking ground isn’t expected until late next year, I’d guess a huge amount of work is required before that happens, so as soon as there is certainty about the project being approved by the UK authorities the sooner Universal can commit fully to that effort.

Maybe this is some of the good news the government is going to use during an election campaign. A couple of weeks before the election they announce universal studios investing 10 billion would sound good.

 

[rob@rar]

Maybe this is some of the good news the government is going to use during an election campaign. A couple of weeks before the election they announce universal studios investing 10 billion would sound good.

They can’t do that, it’s not how it works. It will be parliament which approves the planning application, not the government. For that to happen parliament has to be sitting, and if there is, as seems likely, an election on 4 July, parliament will be dissolved next week. So no time for parliament to approve the legislation.

The Conservatives could say during the election campaign that it is their plan to approve the investment in Bedford if they form the next government. Equally Labour could say the exact same thing, and I’m sure the current Labour MP for Bedford will say that. But the Conservatives simply can not approve this project before the election takes place, there is not enough time.

 

[Altonsky]

There is zero chance of a new government doing anything before the summer recess to approve Universal’s plans, there’s just not enough time. So we would be looking at the autumn in any case.

There’s 10 billion pounds on the line. You’d be surprised.

Plus plenty of things for the civil servants (who’ll mostly be the same) to do in the background.

 

[rob@rar]

There’s 10 billion pounds on the line. You’d be surprised.

Plus plenty of things for the civil servants (who’ll mostly be the same) to do in the background.

I don't think you understand how this works, if planning permission is to proceed via a Special Development Order.

 

[Altonsky]

I don't think you understand how this works, if planning permission is to proceed via a Special Development Order.

I understand how it works and how it needs to be voted on but it’s not the ministers doing the paperwork. It’s the civil servants and the ministers, Secretary of State and whoever else shows up, sign on the dotted line and take the credit.

The civil servants remain constant, that’s why some people refer to them as ‘the blob’.

Whether the election is now or November it’s not going to have any material impact on the back of house stuff that’s probably taking place as we speak. All they need is bums on seats in order to take a vote at some point but everyone knew there’d be a month or so where that wouldn’t be possible.

Parliament might be dissolved for a month but the civil servants don’t get a month off, they’re all carrying on with the work they’ve been provided.