Mad Dog
V.I.P. Member
:thumbsup:sorry, was just multi quoting, but I changed topics in replying to you...guess I should have replied to your part separately. One day I will understand these interwebs!
:thumbsup:sorry, was just multi quoting, but I changed topics in replying to you...guess I should have replied to your part separately. One day I will understand these interwebs!
You'd make a good sports bookie. ....Yeah, I'd take those odds. My guesses would be right along what you posted. :thumbsup:There's 3 separate questions here:
1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).
2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:
3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.
If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).
If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:
2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds
Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.
Well I suppose that would be really nice of Universal to slow things down a bit and let Disney have a real strong anniversary year.There's 3 separate questions here:
1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).
2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:
3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.
If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).
If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:
2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds
Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.
There's 3 separate questions here:
1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).
2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:
3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.
If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).
If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:
2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds
Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.
There's 3 separate questions here:
1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).
2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:
3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.
If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).
If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:
2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds
Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.
Do you have a Spaghetti Plot diagram to go along with this? I'm Floridian, I only understand Spaghetti Plots
On the first point, I mean it could be built into the timeline and it would mean the 2023 or 2024 your odds point to. Anyway, the one way I think Comcast can use time and wait Stan out is by building Hotels and the City Walk type stuff since they are right there by OCCC...I feel they can make $$ from the land buy long before they ever open a 'theme park'.
But then he could see the benefits of developing his land in this newly vibrant area and never sell.I was going to make a similar comment as this. They could easily position hotels across from the convention center well before building out a new theme park. Add in entertainment/shopping/dining down there and this land/lawsuit might pay for itself even before they start development.
Yep, once you start developing the land value goes up. I would guess just the rumor of a new park has increased the lands value. If I were selling this land one of the first things I would mention is that it will likely be adjacent to a future Universal resort.But then he could see the benefits of developing his land in this newly vibrant area and never sell.
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
I'd take 10:1 odds at 2025 in a heartbeat. I don't see it being done soon.
I mean, Nintendo still hasn't started- It's going to take longer for Nintendo than Avatar Announcement-Open.
About the same, no? Nintendo was announced in '15, should open in 2020/21, Avatar announced in '11, didn't open until '17.
Sorry if I don't take stock in educated guesses.
The announcement was initiated by Nintendo. I would guess that Universal would not have said anything publicly at that point in time if not for Nintendo.Is it just my interpretation or would anyone else not consider Nintendo to be officially announced in the same way Avatar was for Disney? It was technically announced for Japan with it going to other Universal parks eventually? ..again could just be my interpretation
Universal wouldn't have mentioned until the quarterly report. And it would have been buried in financial data.The announcement was initiated by Nintendo. I would guess that Universal would not have said anything publicly at that point in time if not for Nintendo.
I was going to make a similar comment as this. They could easily position hotels across from the convention center well before building out a new theme park. Add in entertainment/shopping/dining down there and this land/lawsuit might pay for itself even before they start development.