I don’t think Universal has any incentive to build a truly spectacular lagoon show at USF. The park just isn’t built for it.
That lagoon isn’t a great place for a nighttime show. It’s too small and there isn’t enough room surrounding the lagoon for an Illuminations sized crowd. The sight lines aren’t great either, but you can work around that.
The lagoon wasn’t designed for a nighttime show. I feel like the lagoons at Epcot and TDS clearly were.