Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[ThemeParks4Life]

The Stock Market didn't like this news. Comcast dropped 5 1/2 points to apx. $30 a share.

That's hardly surprising. Like I've been saying, the studios take up too much of the deal to be a great investment for Comcast. CNBC has a good article speculating that the deal could split between Disney and Comcast by letting the former gain the studios and the latter gain Hulu, Sky, and Star. Disney still wants everything, but if Comcast puts up a fight, I could see that scenario playing out.

 

[Mad Dog]

Iger is on CNBC. Basically said they're not giving up the fight, said Disney's offer was fair and readily accepted by Fox. When pressed on whether Disney would up their bid, he diplomatically said that wasn't something he would elaborate on at this time.

 

[Nick]

That's hardly surprising. Like I've been saying, the studios take up too much of the deal to be a great investment for Comcast. CNBC has a good article speculating that the deal could split between Disney and Comcast by letting the former gain the studios and the latter gain Hulu, Sky, and Star. Disney still wants everything, but if Comcast puts up a fight, I could see that scenario playing out.

The thing is nobody really cares about the studio so that would be a BS split at least for Disney so it would never happen. Disney wanted this a lot because of Hulu/Sky/Star. Those are the most important pieces to them.

 

[JungleSkip]

The thing is nobody really cares about the studio so that would be a BS split at least for Disney so it would never happen. Disney wanted this a lot because of Hulu/Sky/Star. Those are the most important pieces to them.

Yea, I think the Studio is an afterthought in all of this. Comcast is all in for Sky/Star/Hulu, so if AT&T/Time Warner goes through, there will 100% be a bidding war on

 

[zg44]

@Paulio
Movie look is always controlled by the movie studio as a matter of copyright law.

Thus, even if the theme park rights are held by a different owner (i.e. JK Rowling directly owns the Harry Potter theme park rights or Tolkien Estate owns the Tolkien theme park rights or Marvel owns the Marvel theme park rights), the movie studio still controls the movie look and must be included in any theme park arrangement that plans to use the movie look.

So yeah, if Universal did want to use any of the Fox movie look for X-Men, they'd need Fox as part of the arrangement.

That's why Amazon's deal with the Tolkien Estate for TV rights to pre-LOTR stories included Warner Bros as part of the arrangement in case they wanted to use the movies' depiction of things.

The same will be true of any LOTR theme park deal between Universal and the Tolkien Estate. Warner would have to be included if the movie look is going to be a part of that deal.

 

[HereWeGo]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I do NOT like Comcast as a company. I love Universal Studios and I think their theme parks are great but I have to kind of separate them in my mind because I think the parent company of Comcast is trash. Not to say that Disney is some angelic, perfect entity (they definitely are not)! However I do think they are the better of the two and I would much rather Disney get Fox over Comcast. Honestly, the best case scenario for this would be for Fox to be broken up and sold in parts to different studios. But I feel the chances for that are slim to none.

 

[quinnmac000]

I'm trying to understand your point... Disney produces the least amount of films yearly so therefore FOX is better off in the hands o Comcast, who already produces more films? I really don't care how this deal ends up, but your point makes no sense.

Although for the studio that produces the least they make an awful lot of money, don't they.

More so would Disney let their other studios films take marketshare from their other films? Even when Disney had Dreamworks distribution, Touchstone, and Mirimax, they didn't allow those releases to compete against their own products which may mean less productions overall. Universal and its subsidiaries already have some of their films coming out on the same day and competing against each other in the market place.

So its without a doubt, Disney may show stronger preference to their own films while Fox properties pushed to the way side.

 

[Paulio]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I do NOT like Comcast as a company. I love Universal Studios and I think their theme parks are great but I have to kind of separate them in my mind because I think the parent company of Comcast is trash. Not to say that Disney is some angelic, perfect entity (they definitely are not)! However I do think they are the better of the two and I would much rather Disney get Fox over Comcast. Honestly, the best case scenario for this would be for Fox to be broken up and sold in parts to different studios. But I feel the chances for that are slim to none.

Getting the company to split up so different IPs would be sold is unrealistic as anything could get. As much we hate Comcast for its inhumane practices, they have been taking good care of Universal properties and thus elevating Universal Studios into a serious rival, both movie and theme park arena. One should separate the bad main stuff the company is doing and focus on the other stuff that is actually good for the GP (movie and theme parks). As a die-hard fan of Universal, we appreciate what Comcast has done for Universal since the company was struggling prior to being acquired by the former. What's good for theme parks is good for a certain community as a whole, and competition breed quality. It would be terrible if Disney acquires Fox since it would give them power for some of its most popular properties/companies for the past decade.

 

[quinnmac000]

The Stock Market didn't like this news. Comcast dropped 5 1/2 points to apx. $30 a share.

Its not solely just that...
Media Stocks Melt Down, Especially Dish And Other TV Bundle Staples | Deadline

 

[HereWeGo]

Getting the company to split up so different IPs would be sold is unrealistic as anything could get. As much we hate Comcast for its inhumane practices, they have been taking good care of Universal properties and thus elevating Universal Studios into a serious rival, both movie and theme park arena. One should separate the bad main stuff the company is doing and focus on the other stuff that is actually good for the GP (movie and theme parks). As a die-hard fan of Universal, we appreciate what Comcast has done for Universal since the company was struggling prior to being acquired by the former. What's good for theme parks is good for a certain community as a whole, and competition breed quality. It would be terrible if Disney acquires Fox since it would give them power for some of its most popular properties/companies for the past decade.

You seem to be mostly focusing on the theme park aspect of this and I can almost guarantee you that that is NOT the main reason Comcast wants Fox. At all.

I whole-heartedly disagree with you that Comcast would be the “lesser of two evils” when compared to Disney, but that’s ok. Everyone is entightled to their opinion on the matter. It’ll be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

 

[Paulio]

You seem to be mostly focusing on the theme park aspect of this and I can almost guarantee you that that is NOT the main reason Comcast wants Fox. At all.

I whole-heartedly disagree with you that Comcast would be the “lesser of two evils” when compared to Disney, but that’s ok. Everyone is entightled to their opinion on the matter. It’ll be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

I never said Comcast is lesser of evils than Disney. I said that Comcast buying Fox is lesser of evils than Disney when it comes to the strong movie/theme park market power. And yeah, this is a theme park forum, so I'm focused the Comcast's side of it. I'm not saying that theme parks are the reason Comcast bought Fox, but with more IPs in your arsenal, you're free to use whatever you want without negotiations/restrictions and you don't have to fork money to a 3rd party company/person. Out of all of the Comcast's evils, there's little to no evidence Comcast has used Universal movie/TV properties to abuse their consumers/guests in the entertainment/theme park arena.

 

[zg44]

One important thing to keep in mind is that for a major asset sale like this, it's roughly the equivalent of selling the corporation, in other words, all shareholders are treated equally.

Why that matters is that the Murdochs control 17% of the overall shares of Fox. Their 40% voting control won't apply for a transaction like this.

That's why it's likely that the highest price will end up winning out IF the AT&T-TimeWarner merger goes through.

If that merger isn't approved next month, then Comcast won't bid.

 

[Paulio]

I could see that Comcast might have a chance of convincing Fox investors and shareholders to drop Disney in favor of going with them instead. Whether measured by revenue or assets, Comcast is far larger than Disney. In 2017, Comcast had revenue of $84.5 billion and assets of $186.9 billion, while Disney had revenue of $55.1 billion and assets of $95.8 billion. If Comcast successfully outbids Disney, it would seriously disrupt Disney's own streaming service into being far more bigger and attractive to mature audiences. Comcast would own every Fox IP from X-Men, F4, The Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad, King of the Hill, Die Hard, Avatar, Speed, Greatest Showman, Fight Club, etc.

The Simpsons land at Universal parks in L.A. and Orlando would be transferred from a 3rd party IP to a Universal-owned asset and Pandora land at Disney's Animal Kingdom will still remain a 3rd party property, only this time, Disney would have to fork over the Avatar money to Comcast, similar to how the forme forks over of the merchandise money to Disney in regards to MSHI. Disney would lose tons of money from exiting the deal with Fox. So yeah, it demonstrates that Comcast is being very committed to beating Disney in all levels, including the entertainment and theme park arena, and would increase the level of competition in both areas.

 

[Nick]

Comcast would own every Fox IP from X-Men, F4, The Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad, King of the Hill, Die Hard, Avatar, Speed, Greatest Showman, Fight Club, etc.

They would "own" almost none of those. They are the distributor. Marvel owns X-Men/F-4, Matt Groening owns The Simpsons, Seth MacFarlane owns Family Guy, James Cameron/Lightstorm owns Avatar, etc, etc.

Most of what Fox does is distribution.

 

[quinnmac000]

They would "own" almost none of those. They are the distributor. Marvel owns X-Men/F-4, Matt Groening owns The Simpsons, Seth MacFarlane owns Family Guy, James Cameron/Lightstorm owns Avatar, etc, etc.

Most of what Fox does is distribution.

Television is much different than Film. Most stuff Fox produces television wise they have ownership over. However, I think creators input would be required for lands.

 

[Paulio]

They would "own" almost none of those. They are the distributor. Marvel owns X-Men/F-4, Matt Groening owns The Simpsons, Seth MacFarlane owns Family Guy, James Cameron/Lightstorm owns Avatar, etc, etc.

Most of what Fox does is distribution.

It's no different than saying Universal doesn't own Jurassic Park movies due to Micheal Crichton and Warner Bros. doesn't own HP movies due to JK Rowling. Both Family Guy and The Simpsons are produced at the 20th Century Fox studio in Century City, Los Angeles, and distributed by Fox for the Fox network. I considered them Fox IPs, as they have exercise ownership over these products. Speed (1994) movie is made and distributed by Fox, I considered it a Fox IP. X-Men movies are produced and distributed by Fox, I considered them to be Fox IPs per contract as a licensee.

Unless Fox is willing to relinquish its IPs completely over to some other company or unless some other company buys the IPs out completely or if the creators take their IPs somewhere else, the movies/TV shows I mentioned belongs to Fox.

 

[zg44]

We tend to focus way too much on the film and theme park assets at stake here. Those are not very important in the grand scheme of things.

I hate to say this, but Fox Searchlight is basically a rounding error in this transaction. Same with Blue Sky (which will be a casualty regardless of whether Comcast or Disney is the buyer) so Blue Sky will be spun off and probably have to get its own distribution elsewhere like Laika did after Comcast bought DreamWorks. Neither Comcast nor Disney would have interest in struggling Blue Sky when both have 2 strong animation labels (Illumination/DreamWorks and Disney Animation/Pixar). Comcast would probably merge Fox Searchlight into Focus Features.


In terms of value:

1) Sky = $31+ billion in value (Fox has 39%)
2) Fox's RSNs = $25 billion in value
3) Hulu = $10-20 billion in value (Fox has 30%, Disney and Comcast each have 30%)
4) Fox's TV + Movie studio = $12 billion in value
5) FX/National Geographic = $5 billion in value


Fox Searchlight is included in #4, but its value is probably around $500 million (based on box office of around $100-200 million a year for 10-12 low budget prestige films). Blue Sky is probably worth $500 million as well (based on movie output of 1 animated movie a year at a cost of $100 million). So that's basically around $1 billion combined between Fox Searchlight and Blue Sky when we're talking about overall assets worth $60+ billion.

 

[quinnmac000]

We tend to focus way too much on the film and theme park assets at stake here. Those are not very important in the grand scheme of things.

I hate to say this, but Fox Searchlight is basically a rounding error in this transaction. Same with Blue Sky (which will be a casualty regardless of whether Comcast or Disney is the buyer) so Blue Sky will be spun off and probably have to get its own distribution elsewhere like Laika did after Comcast bought DreamWorks. Neither Comcast nor Disney would have interest in struggling Blue Sky when both have 2 strong animation labels (Illumination/DreamWorks and Disney Animation/Pixar). Comcast would probably merge Fox Searchlight into Focus Features.


In terms of value:

1) Sky = $31+ billion in value (Fox has 39%)
2) Fox's RSNs = $25 billion in value
3) Hulu = $10-20 billion in value (Fox has 30%, Disney and Comcast each have 30%)
4) Fox's TV + Movie studio = $12 billion in value
5) FX/National Geographic = $5 billion in value


Fox Searchlight is included in #4, but its value is probably around $500 million (based on box office of around $100-200 million a year for 10-12 low budget prestige films). Blue Sky is probably worth $500 million as well (based on movie output of 1 animated movie a year at a cost of $100 million). So that's basically around $1 billion combined between Fox Searchlight and Blue Sky when we're talking about overall assets worth $60+ billion.

You don't think Meledandri doesn't want the other studio he created and started back under his control?

 

[HereWeGo]

And yeah, this is a theme park forum, so I'm focused the Comcast's side of it.

I understand that we’re on a theme park forum, but that’s such a small part of this. We have to think way bigger than that (because the studios definitely are). Just as zg44 said above me, there seems to be way too much focus on theme park attractions when talking about this deal. And I totally get it, it would be cool to see some of these IPs come to life in an attraction but I would much rather sacrifice a cool theme park ride over having a telecommunications company like Comcast getting ahold of all of Fox’s assets. But that’s just me.

 

[JungleSkip]

I understand that we’re on a theme park forum, but that’s such a small part of this. We have to think way bigger than that (because the studios definitely are). Just as zg44 said above me, there seems to be way too much focus on theme park attractions when talking about this deal. And I totally get it, it would be cool to see some of these IPs come to life in an attraction but I would much rather sacrifice a cool theme park ride over having a telecommunications company like Comcast getting ahold of all of Fox’s assets. But that’s just me.

I mean, if Disney gets Fox's assets they BECOME a telecommunications company.

There's not really a good outcome here.