Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[HereWeGo]

I mean, if Disney gets Fox's assets they BECOME a telecommunications company.

There's not really a good outcome here.

Disney will start providing internet and phone access? I don’t mean that as sarcasm, I’m geniunely asking haha.

 

[JungleSkip]

Disney will start providing internet and phone access? I don’t mean that as sarcasm, I’m geniunely asking haha.

They would own Sky in Europe and Star in India, which provide TV/internet

 

[HereWeGo]

They would own Sky in Europe and Star in India, which provide TV/internet

Thanks! Good to know. I still stand by thinking Disney would be the better option, comparatively, but thanks for that insight!

 

[zg44]

You don't think Meledandri doesn't want the other studio he created and started back under his control?

Naw, I think he's really just focused on Illumination now; he turned down the opportunity to run DreamWorks, and now Illumination is in a major growth phase as it pushes up to 2 animated films a year and works on the Nintendo IPs. He's too busy to get distracted by trying to rebuild Blue Sky given how rapidly Illumination is expanding.

Plus, if Comcast does succeed, with $100 billion in extra debt, I think they may try to sell off some assets that are redundant. Somebody like Paramount could easily take Blue Sky off of Comcast's hands for $400 million, and the same would be true of Fox Searchlight.

I think we could see Comcast sell off some of the assets that they don't need.

 

[quinnmac000]

I more I think about it,

I think if the AT&T/TW deal doesn't go through, we are going to have a surprise twist where the money Comcast had for FOX will go for control of buy out Warner Bros while leaving out Turner (Distribution) and HBO (premium).

Reasoning for this:
1. Sky bid already is going through regardless of the Fox deal so they will have a distribution system. I also don't think India a market especially with a company that has shown losses for the past three years.
2. Fox is the #4 studio last year. Warner Bros was the #2 studio. If you are buying for content, shouldn't you go for the one with better influence in major markets.
3. It would give NBCUniversal a plethora of animated properties and franchises which fits into their statements regarding the projects they want to focus on in the future.
4. Help dilute ownership of Hulu with that 10% and would give Comcast full control over Fandango and sites associated with Fandango again.

By leaving out Turner and HBO it could easily be argued to to the mergers of Viacom/CBS, Fox/Disney, etc to be able to compete they would need to up their market share which under a combined Fox and Disney market share based on last years number would hit 34% which more than double Comcast's market share last year.

 

[Nick]

I more I think about it,

I think if the AT&T/TW deal doesn't go through, we are going to have a surprise twist where the money Comcast had for FOX will go for control of buy out Warner Bros while leaving out Turner (Distribution) and HBO (premium).

Reasoning for this:
1. Sky bid already is going through regardless of the Fox deal so they will have a distribution system. I also don't think India a market especially with a company that has shown losses for the past three years.
2. Fox is the #4 studio last year. Warner Bros was the #2 studio. If you are buying for content, shouldn't you go for the one with better influence in major markets.
3. It would give NBCUniversal a plethora of animated properties and franchises which fits into their statements regarding the projects they want to focus on in the future.
4. Help dilute ownership of Hulu with that 10% and would give Comcast full control over Fandango and sites associated with Fandango again.

By leaving out Turner and HBO it could easily be argued to to the mergers of Viacom/CBS, Fox/Disney, etc to be able to compete they would need to up their market share which under a combined Fox and Disney market share based on last years number would hit 34% which more than double Comcast's market share last year.

Nobody is buying FOX for their Studio alone. The Studio isn't even really among the top 3 assets in a deal.

 

[Paulio]

Murdochs Comcast Bid For 21st Century Fox Assets, But Decline To Address “Market Speculation” | Deadline

 

[zg44]

I more I think about it,

I think if the AT&T/TW deal doesn't go through, we are going to have a surprise twist where the money Comcast had for FOX will go for control of buy out Warner Bros while leaving out Turner (Distribution) and HBO (premium).

Reasoning for this:
1. Sky bid already is going through regardless of the Fox deal so they will have a distribution system. I also don't think India a market especially with a company that has shown losses for the past three years.
2. Fox is the #4 studio last year. Warner Bros was the #2 studio. If you are buying for content, shouldn't you go for the one with better influence in major markets.
3. It would give NBCUniversal a plethora of animated properties and franchises which fits into their statements regarding the projects they want to focus on in the future.
4. Help dilute ownership of Hulu with that 10% and would give Comcast full control over Fandango and sites associated with Fandango again.

By leaving out Turner and HBO it could easily be argued to to the mergers of Viacom/CBS, Fox/Disney, etc to be able to compete they would need to up their market share which under a combined Fox and Disney market share based on last years number would hit 34% which more than double Comcast's market share last year.

HBO is more valuable than WB studio, especially since it's already transitioning to OTT and will be a powerful OTT player. In around 1-2 years, HBO already got around 5 million subs on OTT services. I think that number can easily grow to 20+ million over the next few years given how powerful HBO is as a premium content creator. If the AT&T-TW merger is prevented, then Comcast would likely go for a combo of HBO and WB (as well as the 10% of Hulu that TW controls).

The issue in the AT&T case is about the combination of Turner and DirecTV resulting in higher prices for consumers. While I think AT&T will win, in the chance that they lose the case, they would still be allowed to buy HBO and WB probably. They'd just have to spinoff Turner or somebody else would have to buy Turner (like Sony or CBS).

Comcast could bid then on HBO and WB against AT&T... if it came down to it.

A combination of Sky, HBO, and WB would probably be enough to make Comcast okay with losing Fox's RSNs, control of Hulu (Disney would end up with 60%, Comcast with 40%), Star India, Fox's TV/Movie studio and FX/National Geographic.

 

[quinnmac000]

HBO is more valuable than WB studio, especially since it's already transitioning to OTT and will be a powerful OTT player. In around 1-2 years, HBO already got around 5 million subs on OTT services. I think that number can easily grow to 20+ million over the next few years given how powerful HBO is as a premium content creator. If the AT&T-TW merger is prevented, then Comcast would likely go for a combo of HBO and WB (as well as the 10% of Hulu that TW controls).

The issue in the AT&T case is about the combination of Turner and DirecTV resulting in higher prices for consumers. While I think AT&T will win, in the chance that they lose the case, they would still be allowed to buy HBO and WB probably. They'd just have to spinoff Turner or somebody else would have to buy Turner (like Sony or CBS).

Comcast could bid then on HBO and WB against AT&T... if it came down to it.

A combination of Sky, HBO, and WB would probably be enough to make Comcast okay with losing Fox's RSNs, control of Hulu (Disney would end up with 60%, Comcast with 40%), Star India, Fox's TV/Movie studio and FX/National Geographic.

I don't think AT&T will want it as much without Turner or DirectTV. They would end up with a bunch of content especially in the television realm with limited distribution networks. Turner owns all the OTT networks not related to HBO. However without Direct TV, you lose that in house data of who is watching what for what, when they are watching etc.

Sky, HBO, and WB probably would be less costly and create more synergy than Comcast/Fox and what they lose with India they make up in other top major world markets.

HBO is quite weird, mostly the only fund and produce Comedies in house while the rest are done by Warner Bros Television Studios or come from outside.... content like Game of Thrones (Television 360 and Grok! Television) True Detective (Anonymous Content) and Big Little Lies (Pacific Standards, Blossom Films) aren't produced nor owned by them. At the same time WestWorld or their other main big event shows are being produced by Warner Television Studios. As well as Sky co-produces HBO shows, which if they owned Sky, HBO, and WB, they would essentially just be doing everything in house.

I don't think Comcast wants RSN because they would be forced to divest especially after combining bout NBC Sports with Comcast Sports and I also think Disney won't be allowed to have those rights either especially with all 4 major regional companies now being condensed into two. NBC Sports vs ESPN.

 

[Mad Dog]

I'm wondering if the fact that AT&T gave vast sums of money to Cohen to advance their influence on this case will complicate/affect/delay the proceedings.

 

[zg44]

I'm wondering if the fact that AT&T gave vast sums of money to Cohen to advance their influence on this case will complicate/affect the proceedings.

Judge is already in the final phase of putting together the decision, so there won't be any outside impact at this point, i.e. the Cohen stuff.

This will be a straight legal ruling on vertical mergers, in this case whether combining DirecTV and Turner should be allowed under US anti-trust law, and if allowed whether there should be restrictions on their behavior (for example requiring Turner to use arbitration in its future negotiations with other pay tv providers).

 

[Nick]

I don't think Comcast wants RSN because they would be forced to divest especially after combining bout NBC Sports with Comcast Sports and I also think Disney won't be allowed to have those rights either especially with all 4 major regional companies now being condensed into two. NBC Sports vs ESPN.

You do know that Comcast already has 9 RSN's currently, right? They would simply change the Fox Sports RSNs to be branded as NBC Sports RSNs like the ones they own right now.

Fox Sports has 25 RSNs to NBC Sports' 9 though and Fox has some of the big ones like Prominent New York sports networks such as New York Yankees owned YES Network and MSG Network, which broadcasts games from the New York Knicks, Rangers, Islanders, etc. They are also affiliated with Boston Red Sox owned NESN.

NBC Sports Regional Networks - Wikipedia

Fox Sports Networks - Wikipedia

 

[Paulio]

Giuliani says 'the president denied' AT&T-Time Warner deal approval

Really doesn't look like the DOJ is helping the case itself, and it looks more like the AT&T-Time Warner deal is likely going to be approved. That and the government's case against AT&T-TW merger during the trial appeared to be very weak would make the inevitably more likely gonna happen.

 

[Nick]

Giuliani says 'the president denied' AT&T-Time Warner deal approval

Really doesn't look like the DOJ is helping the case itself, and it looks more like the AT&T-Time Warner deal is likely going to be approved. That and the government's case against AT&T-TW merger during the trial appeared to be very weak would make the inevitably more likely gonna happen.

It's not the DOJ making it hard on itself, it's a loon and his lawyer making it hard on the DOJ from what I gather from the link you posted.

Besides, Trump isn't even part of the DOJ. But I agree it is looking likely that AT&T-Time Warner deal wins.

 

[Paulio]

It's not the DOJ making it hard on itself, it's a loon and his boss making it hard on the DOJ from what I gather from the link you posted.

Besides, Trump isn't even part of the DOJ. But I agree it is looking likely that AT&T-Time Warner deal wins.

It's more likely there's a lot of assertion going on that we may known for months now that Trump may have influenced the DOJ to block the deal, even though the DOJ is supposed to operate under political independence. After all of the heavy false-facts and contradictions misshapes under this administration that has been occuring lately, it become so unworthy that Giuliani hinted that Trump himself simply doesn't want the AT&T-TW deal to be approved, which would make AT&T's argument even more stronger than ever.

 

[zg44]

Judge doesn't care about silly intrigue at the DoJ/WH.

The case will be determined strictly on merits of vertical mergers in the Pay TV industry.

The problem for the government is that it would have had a much stronger case against Comcast-NBCUniversal merger back in 2011 than it does against AT&T-TimeWarner in 2018.

The simple reason is that in 2018 Netflix with 125 million subscribers, Amazon Prime with 100 million subscribers, and Hulu with 20 million subscribers are powerful competitors to Pay TV. Pay TV's cord cutting/cord shaving issues show the lack of market power that Pay TV distributors have due to online/internet competitors that were very small back in 2011.

I'd be shocked at this point if the judge rules against AT&T-TimeWarner. The market share/prices argument don't mean much given how fast cord cutting is happening.

 

[Paulio]

Comcast's all-cash bid could pit Murdoch against Fox shareholders

According to the link, several Fox investors told Reuters they would be open to terminating the Disney/Fox deal if Comcast follows through on its plan to launch a rival all-cash bid for as much as $60 billion.

 

[Nick]

Comcast's all-cash bid could pit Murdoch against Fox shareholders

According to the link, several Fox investors told Reuters they would be open to terminating the Disney/Fox deal if Comcast follows through on its plan to launch a rival all-cash bid for as much as $60 billion.

While I think this is a serious thing to keep an eye on, you have to remember the source you are linking from: You linked a CNBC article, a subsidiary of Comcast. Of course CNBC is going to want to push a narrative that Comcast is out for blood here and that Fox Shareholders may get angry if the Murdoch's don't reconsider.

 

[zg44]

There is likely to be an element of Murdochs versus shareholders to any Comcast proposal due to the Murdoch tax issues.

I'd assume though that Comcast would make a bid large enough that even the Murdochs will come out even or ahead after taxes compared to the Disney offer. The other shareholders would see a significant premium.

The issue would be how to handle a Disney counteroffer that puts the Murdochs 10% ahead but the rest of the shareholders 10% behind a Comcast offer.

Either way this is a discussion for mid-June.

 

[Paulio]

While I think this is a serious thing to keep an eye on, you have to remember the source you are linking from: You linked a CNBC article, a subsidiary a Comcast. Of course CNBC is going to want to push a narrative that Comcast is out for blood here and that Fox Shareholders may get angry if the Murdoch's don't reconsider.

CNBC posted an article by the British news-site Reuters and this is the only source I found before others got up as well. I'm not sure what news article you want me to link from, CNBC isn't Fox News here, pretty much independent, and is the only "legit" site along with Disney's ABC. Off course, for me personally and from other sources, Comcast is out for blood, they're aggressively wanting to acquire Fox's key assets from Disney since the Disney/Fox was announced in December 2017. There's nothing you can dispute that.

There is likely to be an element of Murdochs versus shareholders to any Comcast proposal due to the Murdoch tax issues.

I'd assume though that Comcast would make a bid large enough that even the Murdochs will come out even or ahead after taxes compared to the Disney offer. The other shareholders would see a significant premium.

The issue would be how to handle a Disney counteroffer that puts the Murdochs 10% ahead but the rest of the shareholders 10% behind a Comcast offer.

Either way this is a discussion for mid-June.

It's good to know a bit earlier when Comcast has something that Fox shareholders might reconsider. Stock is more valuable than cash, but cash is more tangible which is appealing to the shareholders. Unless Disney plans to fork over the doe, they're in a pickle here. if Fox´s shareholders vote against the Disney sale and vote pro-Comcast. Disney will get a breakout fee of 1.5+Billions in compensation, which might either end up with them buying some of the properties at Fox. We have to wait and see the outcome of the AT&T-Time Warner trial next month though.