Future WDW Additions/Expansion

[SkiBum]

“very, very bullish on the theme parks” is a phrase Iger used recently and he also said he saw value in expansion due to the "extraordinary" demand for a Disney vacation. I'm not going to take him at his word since he was talking to Wall Street on an earnings call so it was all about trying to get the stock up, but this combined with the proposals for expanding Magic Kingdom could lead to more expansion should that get funding. Of course it would be a crime if MK got TRON, a PatF overlay of Splash AND an expansion of Frontierland before getting anything new in DAK or DHS, but alas, I wouldn't be surprised.

I also disagree with your thesis that increasing capacity decreases the value of Genie+/LL. Disneyland has a ton of rides and a ton of capacity, yet when I was in Anaheim last year, I didn't feel like I needed Genie+ in DCA at all, but absolutely felt like I needed it in DL. More to do in the busiest parks in the world still mean busy rides. The more rides, the harder it is to fit them all in, especially if you are doing a shorter trip or splitting between Disney and Universal. I find it super easy to get things done at DHS, DAK and Epcot without Genie+. The only hassle is GotG since there's the VQ. MK is where if I was on vacation, i'd get Genie+ for a day since it can be so busy there and there's a lot to do.

Last month, we went and chose to forego Genie+. I did get it for Epcot so as to get a Ratatouille Lightning Lane and then for Soarin' and I cannot remember if I got another one. While it was nice to have the LL for Ratatouille and Soarin', it wasn't necessary at all. We did not use Genie+ for MK but that was because I did not want to: A) Get up at 7:00 AM to book a ride and B) Stay on my phone trying to coordinate the next ride. We did standby (and the park was quite busy) and it wasn't too bad. I just didn't want to spend the amount per person to get the two or three rides per day. I think that Genie+ needs some work to actually become useful and I also think that it's existence is a revenue stream and not a benefit but that isn't a mind-blowing opinion.

I am in the mindset that expansion needs to occur at DHS primarily and Animal Kingdom (but within the scope of the park). Build out those two parks with rides, not just minilands, and that will spread the crowds out more and bring in more guests. I am not sure that Genie+ will become more or less used if you increase capacity. I think that Individual LL usage might increase but people are already using Genie+ a great deal already.

Ironically, at Epcot, I used a BG to ride Guardians and then purchased an Individual LL to ride it again. I kind of thought that it was worth it because we really enjoyed the ride and we only go once a year.

 

[Nick]

Last month, we went and chose to forego Genie+. I did get it for Epcot so as to get a Ratatouille Lightning Lane and then for Soarin' and I cannot remember if I got another one. While it was nice to have the LL for Ratatouille and Soarin', it wasn't necessary at all. We did not use Genie+ for MK but that was because I did not want to: A) Get up at 7:00 AM to book a ride and B) Stay on my phone trying to coordinate the next ride. We did standby (and the park was quite busy) and it wasn't too bad. I just didn't want to spend the amount per person to get the two or three rides per day. I think that Genie+ needs some work to actually become useful and I also think that it's existence is a revenue stream and not a benefit but that isn't a mind-blowing opinion.

I am in the mindset that expansion needs to occur at DHS primarily and Animal Kingdom (but within the scope of the park). Build out those two parks with rides, not just minilands, and that will spread the crowds out more and bring in more guests. I am not sure that Genie+ will become more or less used if you increase capacity. I think that Individual LL usage might increase but people are already using Genie+ a great deal already.

Ironically, at Epcot, I used a BG to ride Guardians and then purchased an Individual LL to ride it again. I kind of thought that it was worth it because we really enjoyed the ride and we only go once a year.

I agree DHS and DAK need the expansion most. There desperately needs to be something done to Animation Courtyard, and getting rid of the Indy Stunt Adventure, rework the Echo Lake area, and Backlot Cafe or whatever it's called for at least an Indy ride would be nice. Preferably you would have two rides and an Indy themed eatery. Maybe not a land as I don't think there's enough space but a sort of sub-section themed to Indy. I mean, if they really need space, they could go as far as removing Indy Stunt, Backlot Cafe,, and Star Tours, which would only give you a gain of one ride, but it would give you a more cohesive theme and Star Tours is almost never busy now that SWGE is right there.

As far as Animation Courtyard, i've said my peace on that plenty. Tangled boat ride, Snuggly Duckling Quick Service, Monsters Inc Door Coaster, Harryhausen's Table Service. It's much easier to show where all this would go on a map, but there's plenty of space, especially since we'd be replacing a lot of existing buildings.

Would replace: Demolish the entirety of the land. Little Mermaid building (hasn't been in use since March 2020), Animation building (it goes deep and any offices in there can be moved), and Disney Junior show building.

In DAK, they obviously need to fix Dinoland, i'd really love to see a Jungle Book ride or something of that nature, and then the next step for the park is expansion somewhere. It would either be in the plot once planned to be Australia next to Asia or it would be getting rid of the train and the Rafiki Planet Watch concept and putting a new land back there. That's technically not an expansion, but since so few people go back there, it would act as one.

 

[GAcoaster]

Kudos to @Scott W. & @tommyhawkins for this--

 

[Nick]

Kudos to @Scott W. & @tommyhawkins for this--

Real talk though, he needs to be getting his butt into action because of what's going on down the street. Right now, Disney has Tron this year, Tiana in late 2024, and then 2025 comes. Nothing. They're gonna be putting up literally no fight while Universal is literally opening an entire new park. The only possible thing could be Play if they restarted that, but I doubt it.

It's possible that if they started work on DinoLand yesterday they could get a refreshed area there partially done in 2025 with the Moana spinner open and the Zootopia overlay of Dinosaur (if it's an overlay and not a new ride?). The Moana spinner change and Zootopia ride could be simple enough to get open by late 2025 again if they start right now. The new Moana water ride that looked similar to Splash/Tiana would have to wait until 2026 though as that would be a ground up build and more advanced. I kind of hope if they go through with that concept they change it from a flume to more of a dark ride using the Shanghai Pirates tech.

 

[Magic-Man]

If Disney could somehow quicken the construction timeline they could get something open by 2025. A Pandora expansion is the most likely candidate for that (James Cameron and Imagineering probably have plans ready for whenever Disney wants to pull the trigger). Otherwise, everything is 2027 at the earliest.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

One thing I haven't seen a lot of talk about yet is how EU will impact Passholder sales for both resorts. With Universal's APs about to jack up in prices for 3 theme parks, how many people will start to drop their WDW passes?

Will Disney try to provide some fan service by finally refurbishing Figment?

 

[Nick]

One thing I haven't seen a lot of talk about yet is how EU will impact Passholder sales for both resorts. With Universal's APs about to jack up in prices for 3 theme parks, how many people will start to drop their WDW passes?

Will Disney try to provide some fan service by finally refurbishing Figment?

I don't think people will drop passes. I think they will drop down a tier to pay less and be blocked out more at Disney so they can afford a Universal pass while still being able to go to Disney. That's closer to the passholder mindset I think. If you live in Orlando and have a pass and have friends who also have passes to Disney, these are the places you go to hangout a lot of the time and many people just don't want to miss out on being able to hang out with their friends at Disney.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

I don't think people will drop passes. I think they will drop down a tier to pay less and be blocked out more at Disney so they can afford a Universal pass while still being able to go to Disney. That's closer to the passholder mindset I think. If you live in Orlando and have a pass and have friends who also have passes to Disney, these are the places you go to hangout a lot of the time and many people just don't want to miss out on being able to hang out with their friends at Disney.

I agree, but there's also a significant non-Orlando Florida Resident base that has limited days to visit, and are probably not going to be able to justify both passes soon.

Before moving to Orlando, I could only justify one AP.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

“very, very bullish on the theme parks” is a phrase Iger used recently and he also said he saw value in expansion due to the "extraordinary" demand for a Disney vacation. I'm not going to take him at his word since he was talking to Wall Street on an earnings call

Actions speak louder than words and Iger's actions have historically been "WDW is fine".

 

[Mad Dog]

Disney is probably making assumptions that Epic will bring more visitors to Orlando when it opens, and have the Potter effect whereby Disney attendance benefited also for a year or two. So, if that scenario plays out,
Disney has some time. They can develop now for the second half of the decade when they'll need new attractions to keep their market share from any significant declines.

 

[Nick]

Actions speak louder than words and Iger's actions have historically been "WDW is fine".

I said i'm not taking him at his word :shrug:

 

[Nick]

Disney is probably making assumptions that Epic will bring more visitors to Orlando when it opens, and have the Potter effect whereby Disney attendance benefited also for a year or two. So, if that scenario plays out,
Disney has some time. They can develop now for the second half of the decade when they'll need new attractions to keep their market share from any significant declines.

That's probably not a an assumption too far off, although they risk people staying at UOR longer now that they'll have three dry parks and VB. That gives you a minimum of a four days potential stay at Universal if you plan on one park per day and still want to fit Disney in.

Now if you want to fit Disney in on that same vacation (theoretically a 7-day), They're probably going to go to MK, DHS, and Epcot while DAK gets dropped off many people's itinerary. That's best case scenario in many cases, too. That summer, I think a lot of people are going to want to go to Epic more than one day on their vacation so I can see families spending 5 days at the resort, maybe doing MK and maybe one other park. I don't think it will be a fun summer for Disney.

 

[Jake S]

I think it's going to be interesting to see what the reality of people's vacation planning looks like. After UOR became a two-day resort it was pretty clear that SeaWorld Orlando was the biggest loser. When EU opens, do tourists add a seventh day to their trips? Or do they cut somewhere? My thought is that they're more additive than they are subtractive, but ... we shall see.

 

[belloq87]

That's probably not a an assumption too far off, although they risk people staying at UOR longer now that they'll have three dry parks and VB. That gives you a minimum of a four days potential stay at Universal if you plan on one park per day and still want to fit Disney in.

Now if you want to fit Disney in on that same vacation (theoretically a 7-day), They're probably going to go to MK, DHS, and Epcot while DAK gets dropped off many people's itinerary. That's best case scenario in many cases, too. That summer, I think a lot of people are going to want to go to Epic more than one day on their vacation so I can see families spending 5 days at the resort, maybe doing MK and maybe one other park. I don't think it will be a fun summer for Disney.

Not saying you're necessarily wrong, but would a lot of families really prioritize Volcano Bay over Animal Kingdom? Assuming all things being equal, why is Volcano Bay the bigger draw over AK or one of Disney's water parks?

I certainly agree, overall, that EU is likely to alter the composition of many families' vacations, and probably not to Disney's benefit, at the very least. It remains to be seen to what degree.

 

[Nick]

Not saying you're necessarily wrong, but would a lot of families really prioritize Volcano Bay over Animal Kingdom? Assuming all things being equal, why is Volcano Bay the bigger draw over AK or one of Disney's water parks?

I certainly agree, overall, that EU is likely to alter the composition of many families' vacations, and probably not to Disney's benefit, at the very least. It remains to be seen to what degree.

I mean, if you're already staying over at Universal, there's probably going to be some families that decide to do it just because it's there and it's the middle of the summer when it's nasty hot. I think the people who are there to prioritize Epic will undoubtedly spend more time at UOR and even those who want to do both, well, now Universal having three parks means that maybe you do a split stay. Three days at Universal and three days at Disney or something. That's not where Disney wants the market share to be at but it's going to continue to fall. People don't have enough time and with Potter in every park, that's simply enough for some people and SNW will get people excited for Epic anyway.

 

[SkiBum]

Real talk though, he needs to be getting his butt into action because of what's going on down the street. Right now, Disney has Tron this year, Tiana in late 2024, and then 2025 comes. Nothing. They're gonna be putting up literally no fight while Universal is literally opening an entire new park. The only possible thing could be Play if they restarted that, but I doubt it.

It's possible that if they started work on DinoLand yesterday they could get a refreshed area there partially done in 2025 with the Moana spinner open and the Zootopia overlay of Dinosaur (if it's an overlay and not a new ride?). The Moana spinner change and Zootopia ride could be simple enough to get open by late 2025 again if they start right now. The new Moana water ride that looked similar to Splash/Tiana would have to wait until 2026 though as that would be a ground up build and more advanced. I kind of hope if they go through with that concept they change it from a flume to more of a dark ride using the Shanghai Pirates tech.

While I would prefer the Moana water ride be under construction right now, it might be better to have it ready to open on June 1, 2026. Let Epic open in 2025 and don't try to compete head-to-head that year. It's a brand new park with potentially hugely popular IP's. Hit it hard in 2026 with Moana, open Encanto in the Animation Courtyard section of DHS, and then have another ride, an Indy ride as you alluded to, that would open in 2029. In each case, the ride should open in either March or late May. No more pushing opening dates to November. All of this comes along with not letting Imagineering blow budgets out with no real impact. After this, keep focusing on adding a ride ever third year or even every other for less ambitious builds.

 

[Nick]

While I would prefer the Moana water ride be under construction right now, it might be better to have it ready to open on June 1, 2026. Let Epic open in 2025 and don't try to compete head-to-head that year. It's a brand new park with potentially hugely popular IP's. Hit it hard in 2026 with Moana, open Encanto in the Animation Courtyard section of DHS, and then have another ride, an Indy ride as you alluded to, that would open in 2029. In each case, the ride should open in either March or late May. No more pushing opening dates to November. All of this comes along with not letting Imagineering blow budgets out with no real impact. After this, keep focusing on adding a ride ever third year or even every other for less ambitious builds.

They should've been working on Indy for quite some time now. They've known about Indy 5 for 7 years. They easily could've gotten a project together. It would never be a hotter time to open an Indiana Jones ride than this summer.

 

[SeventyOne]

Real talk though, he needs to be getting his butt into action because of what's going on down the street.

I know this is a Universal homer site, but you have to think like Disney thinks. IoA bombed, and outside anything requiring JKR's approval, I don't know that anything Universal has built since has the "wow" factor of, say, Spider-Man. @ReelJustice keeps talking about Disney hubris in the Starcruiser thread, I'm sure the same attitude applies to competition from EU. I'd bet internally they see it doing more harm to USO and Sea World.

Are they wrong? Only time will tell. Come 2027 WDW might be desperate, or conventional wisdom around here might be "well, I always said Nintendo should've just moved into the Kid Zone."

One thing I haven't seen a lot of talk about yet is how EU will impact Passholder sales for both resorts. With Universal's APs about to jack up in prices for 3 theme parks, how many people will start to drop their WDW passes?

But for a small 5 or 6 week window, WDW hasn't sold new APs in 3 years now, with no obvious plans to start up again anytime soon. The only APs left are hard-core Disney fans terrified if they don't renew they'll never get another. They're not going anywhere. To say nothing of the record number of new residents who've never had one.

Now if Disney suddenly reopened AP sales for Christmas 2024 with a huge media push, eating up all the disposable income just before EU gets its own media push -- that would be a way to counter EU without spending a dime on construction.

 

[Jake S]

I know this is a Universal homer site, but you have to think like Disney thinks. IoA bombed, and outside anything requiring JKR's approval, I don't know that anything Universal has built since has the "wow" factor of, say, Spider-Man. @ReelJustice keeps talking about Disney hubris in the Starcruiser thread, I'm sure the same attitude applies to competition from EU. I'd bet internally they see it doing more harm to USO and Sea World.

personally, I think transformers is an extremely solid attraction — and I say that as someone who is not a fan of the IP at all. I hear what you're saying, but it's not been a string of misses from universal.

 

[Nick]

I know this is a Universal homer site, but you have to think like Disney thinks. IoA bombed, and outside anything requiring JKR's approval, I don't know that anything Universal has built since has the "wow" factor of, say, Spider-Man. @ReelJustice keeps talking about Disney hubris in the Starcruiser thread, I'm sure the same attitude applies to competition from EU. I'd bet internally they see it doing more harm to USO and Sea World.

Are they wrong? Only time will tell. Come 2027 WDW might be desperate, or conventional wisdom around here might be "well, I always said Nintendo should've just moved into the Kid Zone."

I think they'll probably be playing catch up and will end up having a large amount of announcements at D23 in 2026 or 2028, but the damage will already have been done. They'll have sat back and watched Universal build an entire park without planning any sort of additions to attract people to WDW until around what, 2026 or 2027?