Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[rageofthegods]

Notice that it's been about 3-weeks and WB hasn't reported ANY numbers for SCOOB! yet. Universal was bragging after 3 days. So either the movie just didn't do that well, or they are keeping silent in order to not piss off the theaters and then quietly announce numbers at a shareholder meeting.

It's all a big game of chess at this point between the studios and exhibitors...

Universal was also the first one, let's not forget. Thats a good part of why they might've announced numbers. Analysts have said that Scoob actually performed better than Trolls. Uni, meanwhile, has since released High Note on VOD and have kept mum about the numbers, + apparently, according to Bloomberg, Trolls hit 200m, so that's another milestone that they didn't have a press release on.

My guess is, after the Trolls thing, backroom negotiations started happening. That's why major studios are keeping quiet but studios like Vertigo are loudly announcing that Capone hit 2.5m. That having been said, looking at that survey that quinnmac posted, almost 40% of exhibitors say the window is too long. They were never gonna keep the 90-days when there was this much division from the start.

 

[Nick]

Analysts have said that Scoob actually performed better than Trolls.

Analysts also said theme parks wouldn't open until 2021.

That having been said, looking at that survey that quinnmac posted, almost 40% of exhibitors say the window is too long. They were never gonna keep the 90-days when there was this much division from the start.

The 90-day window is too long. I would say it should be 60 max. By the end of the second month, those movies aren't making much money anyway. I think for smaller films, you could even go to a 45-day window.

 

[darkridelover]

Analysts also said theme parks wouldn't open until 2021.


The 90-day window is too long. I would say it should be 60 max. By the end of the second month, those movies aren't making much money anyway. I think for smaller films, you could even go to a 45-day window.

There shouldn't be any window. Theaters are holding back the future of what movies will be because they can''t adapt quickly enough. It will be a losing battle for them and eventually most big chains will be out of business. Yes, people want the option of a special experience they can't get at home. But the era of the cattle call, overpriced, generic megaplex is coming to an end. The writing is on the wall. The people that suffer the most from this last ditch effort from these chains to stay relevant are consumers.

 

[Nick]

There shouldn't be any window. Theaters are holding back the future of what movies will be because they can''t adapt quickly enough. It will be a losing battle for them and eventually most big chains will be out of business. Yes, people want the option of a special experience they can't get at home. But the era of the cattle call, overpriced, generic megaplex is coming to an end. The writing is on the wall. The people that suffer the most from this last ditch effort from these chains to stay relevant are consumers.

There needs to be some reasonable window. If people know that the movie is only going to be in theaters for a week and then straight to PVOD or even a streaming service, few people will pay to go see it in the theater when it will be available at home so soon.

You're thinking from what you want. You also have to look at the Theater side of things. What they want is to stay in business and they can't do that if all the studios take their movies to PVOD.

 

[deadbydawn]

There shouldn't be any window. Theaters are holding back the future of what movies will be because they can''t adapt quickly enough. It will be a losing battle for them and eventually most big chains will be out of business. Yes, people want the option of a special experience they can't get at home. But the era of the cattle call, overpriced, generic megaplex is coming to an end. The writing is on the wall. The people that suffer the most from this last ditch effort from these chains to stay relevant are consumers.

Just curious, how would you suggest theaters adapt for the future of films?

Agreeing with Nick above, I do think there should still be a window albeit a smaller one. I also think the idea of PVOD will force theaters to take a look at how they are structured when they start to reopen. However I can't blame AMC for trying to put their foot down early if only to send a message to other studios. It's an attempt to save their business.

 

[Nick]

@deadbydawn, you asked how theaters should adapt. I know you were agreeing with what I saidme, but i'll still provide the path forward for theaters and I think Jerrod is on a good track below...

My biggest issue with them putting Mulan for sale is....I had Movie Pass then AMC A-list both under 25 bucks.....which is what ONE movie costs to rent at home. When I'm the one paying for how I stream it, the seats and the screen.

I feel Movie companies need to make a temporary A-list type servie to stream all new movies for like 30-40 bucks a month. Or something, I know families make out like Bandits with at home movies...but the kids are going to get you more money once they see your film....Ohh i liked that now I want a Mulan doll, will play with Disney Phone game etc.

I have to agree. I pay less going to the movies than a PVOD movie would cost as i'm one person. I know many of you have families or are married or whatever your situation, but for those of us paying for movies for one person, a $20 rental makes no sense to me and i'd rather go out of my house and have the experience of seeing a movie with my friends because then at least I know if the movie is bad i'm in good company. If I pay $20 for a bad movie, it's just gonna leave me sour.

The path forward for AMC, Regal and Cinemark is for them to become a home distributor like Amazon, Fandango, iTunes, etc. They can still have theaters (albeit less), but they could embrace PVOD if all had apps and say, for example, AMC allowed you to watch Trolls, Scoob, etc as a part of your AMC Stubs membership. Your membership would be good on both the app at home and in theaters. If Amazon ever ends up buying AMC, I can almost guarantee something very similar to this will happen.

 

[OLSinFLA]

One of the reasons multiplex cinemas came into existance was because of the drop in movie attendance. If a film was popular you could show it in multiple theaters... if not, it was regulated to the tiny screen while more popular films got the biggest theater. If PVOD takes off, you can count on theaters still existing but even smaller than they are now. (While multiple screens showing the same film is common - "Lord of the Rings" showed in 11 screen at Universal opening week for example -- the only time I've seen EVERY screen showing the same film was the premiere of "Endgame" - all 22 screens at my local theater were showing it at midnight for a combined total of about 3,000 seats. And sold out. )

 

[deadbydawn]

@deadbydawn, you asked how theaters should adapt. I know you were agreeing with what I saidme, but i'll still provide the path forward for theaters and I think Jerrod is on a good track below...


I have to agree. I pay less going to the movies than a PVOD movie would cost as i'm one person. I know many of you have families or are married or whatever your situation, but for those of us paying for movies for one person, a $20 rental makes no sense to me and i'd rather go out of my house and have the experience of seeing a movie with my friends because then at least I know if the movie is bad i'm in good company. If I pay $20 for a bad movie, it's just gonna leave me sour.

The path forward for AMC, Regal and Cinemark is for them to become a home distributor like Amazon, Fandango, iTunes, etc. They can still have theaters (albeit less), but they could embrace PVOD if all had apps and say, for example, AMC allowed you to watch Trolls, Scoob, etc as a part of your AMC Stubs membership. Your membership would be good on both the app at home and in theaters. If Amazon ever ends up buying AMC, I can almost guarantee something very similar to this will happen.

Thanks! That is definitely not a bad idea. Just like anything else, these theater companies will need to be open to adapting to new changes, or suffer whatever fallout comes from not doing so. I am still not positive that PVOD will make such big waves after theaters open back up and folks start going to the movies again. I think having an AMC A-List type program that allows theater access and selected PVOD will be the best way to do combat it for these companies.

 

[Cwoolboy]

Slashfilm is reporting that, in a regulatory business filing today, AMC cast "substantial doubt" on their ability to stay open.

 

[rageofthegods]

Slashfilm is reporting that, in a regulatory business filing today, AMC cast "substantial doubt" on their ability to stay open.

Cinemark also came out with this:

Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi: 74-Day Theatrical Window Important For Big Blockbusters, But Chain “Open To Alternative Ways To Distribute Films”

Cinemark's CEO continued to champion the theatrical window, but said he's open to other ways to distribute movies.

deadline.com

I think we're nearing the final act of the feud here.

 

[Nick]

Cinemark also came out with this:

Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi: 74-Day Theatrical Window Important For Big Blockbusters, But Chain “Open To Alternative Ways To Distribute Films”

Cinemark's CEO continued to champion the theatrical window, but said he's open to other ways to distribute movies.

deadline.com

I think we're nearing the final act of the feud here.

Maybe, but you’re kidding yourself if you think AMC won’t get bought out eventually at a rock bottom price point.

Amazon could do a lot with the infrastructure they have in place. Turn megaplex’s into mini-Amazon malls with physical Amazon stores used to sell Amazon-specific product, Whole Foods, and still plenty of screens. Amazon could them integrate A-list into your prime membership (or offer it as an add-on).

Because these facilities would be generating so much profit from the other business sectors within (and not relying on concessions), they could likely charge less per ticket than competitors and still be profitable.

 

[quinnmac000]

Universal was also the first one, let's not forget. Thats a good part of why they might've announced numbers. Analysts have said that Scoob actually performed better than Trolls. Uni, meanwhile, has since released High Note on VOD and have kept mum about the numbers, + apparently, according to Bloomberg, Trolls hit 200m, so that's another milestone that they didn't have a press release on.

‘Trolls World Tour’ Has Held The No. 1 Spot At The Box Office Since Opening, Not ‘The Wretched’ – Update

'Trolls World Tour' has been leading the weekend box office over the last two weekends, not IFC's 'The Wretched'

deadline.com

same analysts also got the box office wrong for the past month.

 

[quinnmac000]

AMC Boss Calls Universal Relations “Warm” After Spat, But Chain Has Yet To Book Studio’s Movies

Buried in AMC’s Q1 earnings release today on page 3 was the statement, “While we are in active dialogue with Universal, no movies made by Universal Studios are currently on our docket.” The note comes a little bit more than a month after AMC CEO and President Adam Aron alerted the studio in a...

deadline.com

 

[Nick]

 

[quinnmac000]

Judd Apatow the director requested it be only PVOD. Universal respected the director's wishes

 

[Nick]

Hm.. you just reminded me... along the lines of merging Park and World in the IOA land, Jurassic World: Dominion is obviously going to be a kind of a culmination of both eras. It would be sick if they find a way to also put the older versions of the original 3 stars in the IOA land alongside Pratt and BDH. I personally think Dominion is another shoe-in for $1 billion+ and it might even be as big as the first Jurassic World. If they redid IOA’s JPRA, including the older versions of Grant, Ellie, and Malcolm might make people feel better about it.

Nothing is a shoe-in for $1 Billion anymore.

We may well have seen the last $1B grossing movie if theaters close en masse. It’s being reported that 40% of China’s theaters may close, on top of AMC potentially going under.

 

[Jamesh22]

Nothing is a shoe-in for $1 Billion anymore.

We may well have seen the last $1B grossing movie if theaters close en masse. It’s being reported that 40% of China’s theaters may close, on top of AMC potentially going under.

Agreed - for the next couple of years only though.

I suspect JW Dominion will shift to 2022 which gives things time to return to normal. It would also then mean handy 'Synergy' of advertising for a JPRA retheme at IOA.

 

[Legacy]

Agreed - for the next couple of years only though.

I suspect JW Dominion will shift to 2022 which gives things time to return to normal. It would also then mean handy 'Synergy' of advertising for a JPRA retheme at IOA.

Theaters won’t return to “normal.” That’s the point. When theaters start permanently closing en masse (which is fairly inevitable at this point) and the 90-day theater-exclusive window shrinks (also fairly inevitable), the resources necessary for a traditional “billion-dollar” film will no longer exists. It’ll take years for VOD to pick up that slack. It’ll happen, but we’re unlikely to see another billion-dollar film in the next decade.

 

[Jamesh22]

Theaters won’t return to “normal.” That’s the point. When theaters start permanently closing en masse (which is fairly inevitable at this point) and the 90-day theater-exclusive window shrinks (also fairly inevitable), the resources necessary for a traditional “billion-dollar” film will no longer exists. It’ll take years for VOD to pick up that slack. It’ll happen, but we’re unlikely to see another billion-dollar film in the next decade.

I disagree. It might take another 4 or 5 years to see another Billion dollar movie but I don't think it will be a decade. Theaters might close on masse now but if we get a vaccine and demand then picks up there are going to be a whole load more theatres being bought up and reopened.

I know lots of people desperate to get back to viewing movies in theaters once it is safe to do so.People will need some decent escapism after all this pain and the PVOD model is never going to replace the in theater experience for big blockbusters.

I guess we will see over the next few years...

 

[Mad Dog]

I disagree. It might take another 4 or 5 years to see another Billion dollar movie but I don't think it will be a decade. Theaters might close on masse now but if we get a vaccine and demand then picks up there are going to be a whole load more theatres being bought up and reopened.

I know lots of people desperate to get back to viewing movies in theaters once it is safe to do so.People will need some decent escapism after all this pain and the PVOD model is never going to replace the in theater experience for big blockbusters.

I guess we will see over the next few years...

Yes. There's always been a lot of change in the theater industry. Individual theaters, and chains, come and go. This may be accelerated in this case, but when things calm down, new theaters and new chains will fill the vacuum. That's business.