Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

I think $30 is much more sustainable for high profile family fare PVOD releases such as Mulan. I think it'll actually do pretty well and like @DK745, ESPN+ does this with UFC at a much higher price and a whole bunch of people buy to watch the event.

Think about it, if a family of 4 goes to a movie at an average of $10/ ticket, they're spending around $40 + tax before concession. So for a AAA family title and concessions are already at your house (hell, you could watch with a whole dinner), $30 is still a steal, especially if you have more than 4 people who are going to watch.

Wow.

If this and the AMC-Universal venture are successful, it could change everything for theatrical releases.

I still don't see how it's successful unless the other theaters sign on and so far none have and have put out statements saying they see no business sense in the deal.

It also has the political aspect that already has people boycotting this movie. At that price point and the boycott, this movie isn't going to come in hot as they expect.

If theatres don't complain about an actual tentpole film not going to cinema, then I'm calling them on their bull regarding Universal.

Remember that the theaters weren't mad that Universal put Trolls World Tour on VOD. They were mad that Universal didn't tell them they were doing it until the last second. For all we know, Disney has been in active negotiations with theaters about this and they will be getting a cut of the PVOD.

 

[Nick]

So based on the response to Mulan going to Disney+ at an additional $30, it seems there's still a hell of a lot of support for the movie going experience out there. It almost warms my heart seeing some of the comments on twitter saying as much.

It also seems as if a lot of people planned to see this either by themselves or with another person (not a family) and $30 just doesn't make sense to them like a theatrical release would. Like I said, if movies want to shift to PVOD over time, they have to offer options for not just families, but everyone. The MAJORITY of people who go to the movies the most often are single people or couples. If AMC created an app and allowed their stubs program to be used at home, they would get a ton of business by doing so.

 

[quinnmac000]

Of those exhibitors we spoke with this afternoon, many were blindsided by Disney’s decision. Some rival distributors already saw the writing on the wall, some believing that Disney’s decision to take Hamilton straight to Disney+ over Independence Day weekend was a punch in the face to exhibition; that movie was originally intended to be a theatrical event.

“They don’t need exhibition partners anymore! Why would you share your profitability with an outside company?!” cried one owner of a dine-in cinemas chain. “Think about it: if 10% of their subscribers buy into Mulan, that’s $181 million Disney makes. If 50% of their subscribers rent Mulan, that’s $906 million! That’s money that Disney gets to keep all on their own!”

Mulan, just as COVID-19 was setting in back in early March, came on domestic tracking with a forecasted weekend of $80M+.

“This is a death blow to theaters — did we just lose Disney as a provider? Think about this, every exhibitor has to readjust and start over with everything in their rental deals. If all of the studios are going PVOD, we have to negotiate our terms by occupancy rates; R-rated movies will no longer play at 10 a.m., they’ll play at 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. We’ve just become a destination restaurant that has an upper level of entertainment. If you’re a mall 20-plex theater — you’re toast,” continued the exhibition boss.
When reached about the Disney move today, NATO provided no comment.

‘Mulan’ Madness: With A Potential Disney+ Windfall, Will Studio Still Need Movie Theaters?

'Mulan' Mayhem: With A Potential Disney+ Windfall, Will Studio Still Need Exhibition Partners?

deadline.com

But Universal Pictures is the "bad" guy

 

[Nick]

I didn’t think about that from the perspective of “if x number of subscribers purchase, Disney makes y amount”. That is certainly scary for theaters as there are heavy rumors for months about Black Widow being linked with Disney+, so they could do something very similar.

If they were to release Black Widow on Disney+, I’d say at the least, a solid 30% would likely purchase, which would be $540M all to Disney. 50% would be the $906M mentioned in the article. And that’s just from Disney+. The movie would still play theatrically overseas in China and other markets where Disney+ isn’t currently.

My position has always been I didn’t think blockbusters could survive on a PVOD model because Studios still have to share revenue. But if Disney has found a way to make 100% of the money, then that changes the game an a very bad way for theaters.

It will be very interesting to follow how Mulan performs. I’ll wait for a price drop, but I’m sure many will buy at $30. Although if this was last year and this was Endgame we were talking about, I’d pay no questions asked.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Is this an actual purchase or a rental?

 

[Nick]

Is this an actual purchase or a rental?

They haven’t stated, but I’m going to assume it’s a rental with a specified time limit.

If you just wait long enough, it’ll be on Disney+ anyway though. I do expect that they’ll probably sell a blu-ray after the D+ release though to continue to make as much money back from this as possible.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

I didn’t think about that from the perspective of “if x number of subscribers purchase, Disney makes y amount”. That is certainly scary for theaters as there are heavy rumors for months about Black Widow being linked with Disney+, so they could do something very similar.

If they were to release Black Widow on Disney+, I’d say at the least, a solid 30% would likely purchase, which would be $540M all to Disney. 50% would be the $906M mentioned in the article. And that’s just from Disney+. The movie would still play theatrically overseas in China and other markets where Disney+ isn’t currently.

My position has always been I didn’t think blockbusters could survive on a PVOD model because Studios still have to share revenue. But if Disney has found a way to make 100% of the money, then that changes the game an a very bad way for theaters.

It will be very interesting to follow how Mulan performs. I’ll wait for a price drop, but I’m sure many will buy at $30. Although if this was last year and this was Endgame we were talking about, I’d pay no questions asked.

I mean, I'd probably pay for Endgame as well, but....Marvel movies are kind of like WWE wrestling tournaments. Half of the experience is getting swept up in the crowd (well, at least from my experience in cities during college where half of the theatergoers are Mystery Science Theater understudies). I'm unsure whether every Marvel movie can hold up without that element. Especially in the case of Black Widow, which, based only on trailers, seems rote in comparison to the MCU films with unique styles like Thor, Black Panther, or Doctor Strange.

I guess in short, there's some films I'm less willing to equivocate on with the theatrical experience. Still, I can't imagine a scenario where, even if Black Widow goes digital, that Marvel movies don't return to theaters in full force after a vaccine.

 

[Palutena]

 

[Nick]

I mean, I'd probably pay for Endgame as well, but....Marvel movies are kind of like WWE wrestling tournaments. Half of the experience is getting swept up in the crowd (well, at least from my experience in cities during college where half of the theatergoers are Mystery Science Theater understudies). I'm unsure whether every Marvel movie can hold up without that element. Especially in the case of Black Widow, which, based only on trailers, seems rote in comparison to the MCU films with unique styles like Thor, Black Panther, or Doctor Strange.

I guess in short, there's some films I'm less willing to equivocate on with the theatrical experience. Still, I can't imagine a scenario where, even if Black Widow goes digital, that Marvel movies don't return to theaters in full force after a vaccine.

I totally agree. I actually don't go to the theaters a ton - probably 8-10 times per year - but when I do go it's for the biggest movies, the fans/communal experience, and not everyone has a great home theater. For most people, a theater (especially the freakin dolby theaters at AMC) are still the best movie experience available.

My point was, if that option came available for Black Widow, I think a fairly significant amount of people would buy in and Disney wouldn't have to split profits, meaning it may actually make more money than doing a theatrical run. I want the movie going experience to continue, but it's hard to deny that COVID has royally screwed things up for that industry and have created a situation where theaters will potentially only exist in small numbers.

Well, at least it's not just a 48 hour rental if it's going to be $30. At the very least, it's a month-long rental, which isn't bad at all, especially if you're the key demo (families) who the $30 price tag is already a good deal for.

 

[OLSinFLA]

So I got to buy Disney+ and then pay an additional 30 dollars....haha. Joke. Not when all other PVOD was only 20 dollars.

The other PVOD weren't costing $200 million to make, plus they'd already spent p[robably close to $50-100 million in marketing. Unless it's a miracle, Disney is using this too write off the losses the film will now incur. There's no way it makes its cost back on VPOD event at $30 a pop

 

[OLSinFLA]

I think $30 is much more sustainable for high profile family fare PVOD releases such as Mulan. I think it'll actually do pretty well and like @DK745, ESPN+ does this with UFC at a much higher price and a whole bunch of people buy to watch the event.

Think about it, if a family of 4 goes to a movie at an average of $10/ ticket, they're spending around $40 + tax before concession. So for a AAA family title and concessions are already at your house (hell, you could watch with a whole dinner), $30 is still a steal, especially if you have more than 4 people who are going to watch.


I still don't see how it's successful unless the other theaters sign on and so far none have and have put out statements saying they see no business sense in the deal.


Remember that the theaters weren't mad that Universal put Trolls World Tour on VOD. They were mad that Universal didn't tell them they were doing it until the last second. For all we know, Disney has been in active negotiations with theaters about this and they will be getting a cut of the PVOD.

The theaters aren't in control, the studios are. If every studio goes with AMC, and the others refuse to play ball - well, kind of hard to run a multiplex using independent art films...

 

[Nick]

The theaters aren't in control, the studios are. If every studio goes with AMC, and the others refuse to play ball - well, kind of hard to run a multiplex using independent art films...

You're partially right, but even if the Studios all did want to do that (and I highly doubt Disney would at the very least), so let's go with that theoretical. Let's say most studios want this deal with AMC (and AMC is said to be asking for 20% from all other studios instead of the 10% they got from Universal). It gets their movies out of theaters faster, but they can only play at AMC cinemas as they only get 60% of PVOD profit after making this deal with AMC if the rival theaters refuse.

Why would rival studios refuse? Well, if Disney were to be their white horse (which is asking a lot from a company who has pulled 4 movies from theaters over the past few months), they could strike a deal with CineWorld (Regal) and other major theater chains that they WON'T play in AMC theaters and that they promise to keep Marvel, Star Wars, and all animation content in theaters. These are the types of movies that typically make the most at the box office anyway. On top of that, Disney has Fox and could also agree to not play their films at AMC and would make Fox's library content available to indie theaters, which many have been complaining about since Disney took over.

You're assuming all Studios will just cave and it will be that easy. I don't see it happening and frankly, I don't think Warner Brothers wants to go this route much, either. What Universal signed is basically an exclusivity contract in many ways if the other theaters don't follow suit. Maybe they don't care. I'm just saying, this isn't as black and white as you like to make it seem. There's tension for a reason and NATO is likely going to come out scathing at Disney tomorrow for putting Mulan on PVOD.

 

[quinnmac000]

UK Cinema Owners Blindsided By Disney ‘Mulan’ Decision: “It’s A F*ck You To Exhibitors”

Disney will release the film directly online on September 4, bypassing cinemas in most markets.

deadline.com

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

And like that, theaters will never be the same again. If Black Widow makes this move, endgame for theaters. Sad but expected. As someone who went to the movies 40+ times last year this just sucks and is so depressing, even if I totally 100% completely understand it.

 

[Nick]

So I’ve still yet to be able to find actual written comments from NATO, but I was watching John Campea today and he said he reached out to them and they confirmed that Disney had been in talks about this for a few weeks. Let's remember, this is NOT an Apples: Apples comparison with Trolls 2. Disney tried hard to release Mulan in theaters. It had it's Hollywood premiere before the shutdown. It was supposed to open March 27th, July 24th, and August 21st. They TRIED to release the movie theatrically. The theaters just aren't open.

The other PVOD weren't costing $200 million to make, plus they'd already spent p[robably close to $50-100 million in marketing. Unless it's a miracle, Disney is using this too write off the losses the film will now incur. There's no way it makes its cost back on VPOD event at $30 a pop

Only roughly 12.5-15% of CURRENT D+ subs need to buy in in order for them to come in the black (and remember, this film is still releasing internationally where Disney+ still hasn't launched) - China being the biggest market. And it's possible that Disney+ seeing an increase in subs, which would mean an even smaller amount of current subs will actually need to buy in.

Personally, i'll just wait however long until this is free on the service, but I think Disney is just trying to make back their money on this movie and if they're lucky, maybe make a small amount with the international box office.

 

[OLSinFLA]

So I’ve still yet to be able to find actual written comments from NATO, but I was watching John Campea today and he said he reached out to them and they confirmed that Disney had been in talks about this for a few weeks. Let's remember, this is NOT an Apples: Apples comparison with Trolls 2. Disney tried hard to release Mulan in theaters. It had it's Hollywood premiere before the shutdown. It was supposed to open March 27th, July 24th, and August 21st. They TRIED to release the movie theatrically. The theaters just aren't open.


Only roughly 12.5-15% of CURRENT D+ subs need to buy in in order for them to come in the black (and remember, this film is still releasing internationally where Disney+ still hasn't launched) - China being the biggest market. And it's possible that Disney+ seeing an increase in subs, which would mean an even smaller amount of current subs will actually need to buy in.

Personally, i'll just wait however long until this is free on the service, but I think Disney is just trying to make back their money on this movie and if they're lucky, maybe make a small amount with the international box office.

They *might* break even with that - although no PVOD has even come close to $400 million in home video. And to equal what was the expected box-office take, you'd need 50% of the subscribers. I'm 99% sure Disney expects to take a loss on it, and write it off.

 

[Nick]

They *might* break even with that - although no PVOD has even come close to $400 million in home video. And to equal what was the expected box-office take, you'd need 50% of the subscribers. I'm 99% sure Disney expects to take a loss on it, and write it off.

Yes, but they’ll be taking much less of a loss than continuing to wait to release it in theaters.

And as I said, the film is still being released in Theaters internationally.

 

[quinnmac000]

 

[Nick]

I mean... okay?

Like I said above, Disney tried REALLY HARD to release this thing in theaters. From the March release date, to July 24th and then August 21st. We're at a point where the future is so uncertain right now due to COVID that you can only try so much. This is a movie that they were expected to make close to $1B on and now will will be happy just to get into the black with, which shows you how much the world has changed over the past 4-5 months.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I suspect A Quiet Place II is next to drop. I believe there were rumors about it before, but now that Mulan has made the move I suspect A Quiet Place II to do the same. Either Disney will drop something big in Hulu, or Netflix and Amazon are going to acquire something we'll see what film it is.