Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[AlexanderMBush]

Yo could I get a link to that?

Q2 2020 Comcast Corporation Earnings Conference Call | Comcast Corporation

The Investor Relations website contains information about Comcast Corporation's business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.

www.cmcsa.com

Here is the complete earning's call, with audio included.

 

[Nick]

Remember, this isn't designed for big movies. Universal isn't going to put their next Jurassic World on PVOD after 17 days. This is for middle and low-tier films which would have dropped off by week 3 anyways. From the studio's point of view it means, they don't have to remarket the film 3 months later for home video. And the theaters aren't losing much, as those films are usually dead in the water by week 3. Just because they CAN release in 17 days doesn't mean they WILL. The articles were quite clear on that.

I mean, I know that. But then even having the option is bad for theaters.

 

[OLSinFLA]

I mean, I know that. But then even having the option is bad for theaters.

Not necessarily, When you're theater is only making $300 a day in week 3, you'd be better off moving it off the screen for something else. Especially with smaller films. If you follow box offices you'll notice small films drop rapidly off by the 3rd week. In fact, some analysts thing this might actually increase the amount of small films as the risk becomes smaller for both the studios and theaters. I've been to theaters where there were 3 people in the theater besides me... no way were they making money on that

 

[Nick]

Not necessarily, When you're theater is only making $300 a day in week 3, you'd be better off moving it off the screen for something else. Especially with smaller films. If you follow box offices you'll notice small films drop rapidly off by the 3rd week. In fact, some analysts thing this might actually increase the amount of small films as the risk becomes smaller for both the studios and theaters. I've been to theaters where there were 3 people in the theater besides me... no way were they making money on that

Again, I’m not arguing how about small/mid tier films. I made a whole post saying I thought it was appropriate.

A blockbuster movie shouldn’t be one that has the option to leave after 3 weeks. I think 31-45 days is reasonable, but even the option (I know they can still stay in theaters) is bad for AMC. None of it is good for AMC, only Universal, which is my point. They took a horrible deal for their long term viability as a business.

 

[Legacy]

Again, I’m not arguing how about small/mid tier films. I made a whole post saying I thought it was appropriate.

A blockbuster movie shouldn’t be one that has the option to leave after 3 weeks. I think 31-45 days is reasonable, but even the option (I know they can still stay in theaters) is bad for AMC. None of it is good for AMC, only Universal, which is my point. They took a horrible deal for their long term viability as a business.

Problem is a blockbuster isn’t a blockbuster until it is. While studios and distributors can predict the legs of some movies, most can’t. And it often varies from theater to theater. Some tent poles have very short legs once they get released.

 

[Nick]

Problem is a blockbuster isn’t a blockbuster until it is. While studios and distributors can predict the legs of some movies, most can’t. And it often varies from theater to theater. Some tent poles have very short legs once they get released.

I agree, but realistically, blockbusters rarely just "pop up" out of nowhere these days. Would anyone have thought Avatar would do the business it did? no, but that was 2009. Aside from Jumanji, there's been very few surprises and the theaters could set up perimeters which qualify something as a "blockbuster". If you've made "x" amount after week one, week two and week three, you would qualify as a blockbuster film and be contractually obligated to keep the film in theaters.

I'm not saying a Jurassic World: Dominion might not stay past the 17 days anyway, but it would at least give the theaters more control. AMC's deal is just so willy nilly in favor of Universal it's crazy that they agreed to something like that without at least some stipulations for high-performing movies.

 

[Legacy]

I agree, but realistically, blockbusters rarely just "pop up" out of nowhere these days. Would anyone have thought Avatar would do the business it did? no, but that was 2009. Aside from Jumanji, there's been very few surprises and the theaters could set up perimeters which qualify something as a "blockbuster". If you've made "x" amount after week one, week two and week three, you would qualify as a blockbuster film and be contractually obligated to keep the film in theaters.

I'm not saying a Jurassic World: Dominion might not stay past the 17 days anyway, but it would at least give the theaters more control. AMC's deal is just so willy nilly in favor of Universal it's crazy that they agreed to something like that without at least some stipulations for high-performing movies.

Except the distributors have to determine that stuff in advance in order to prepare the VOD. And what really determines a “blockbuster.” Is it just a raw amount? What if a film has stellar opening weekend that gets it close to the arbitrary “extension” threshold but sees a drastic drop off that barely puts it over (like Deathly Hallows Part 2, and its 72% drop-off)?

Failed tent-poles intended to be blockbusters have been pretty common.

 

[Nick]

Except the distributors have to determine that stuff in advance in order to prepare the VOD. And what really determines a “blockbuster.” Is it just a raw amount? What if a film has stellar opening weekend that gets it close to the arbitrary “extension” threshold but sees a drastic drop off that barely puts it over (like Deathly Hallows Part 2, and its 72% drop-off)?

Failed tent-poles intended to be blockbusters have been pretty common.

The way I see it, if you meet a threshold in one week but fall off so much the next week that you don't, you wouldn't have to stay in theaters after 17 days. If you are still meeting a threshold after 3 weeks, then that would warrant a 4th week, 5th week, etc. It would be on a week by week case.

I just think something like that would be far more beneficial to theaters then them being automatically able to opt out after 17 days if they want. It's getting movies out of theaters faster either way, but still giving theaters security.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Again, I’m not arguing how about small/mid tier films. I made a whole post saying I thought it was appropriate.

A blockbuster movie shouldn’t be one that has the option to leave after 3 weeks. I think 31-45 days is reasonable, but even the option (I know they can still stay in theaters) is bad for AMC. None of it is good for AMC, only Universal, which is my point. They took a horrible deal for their long term viability as a business.

There is no way a blockbuster movie would leave in 17 days. Even with the split with theaters, a blockbuster would still be making more money in a theater than on PVOD.
But this opens up venues for small films with limited risk. Most of the investors think this is a positive move for both the studios and AMC. It means the studios can make more lower tier films, and it means AMC isn't stuck with 20 screen and only 5 films making money,

Let's take a look. On an average a movie theater needs $3,000-5,000 a weekend to turn a profit. Now, on the weekend of January 17, out of the top 10, only 3 would make that. But what can really hurt is, if there is no new product and the current is not drawing people, there's no one to sell concession too. And since up to 90% of a movie theaters profits come from concessions, not movies, it can be a real issue. Now if you have a blockbuster that's filling 3 or 4 screens, then you can make a profit on concessions alone, regardless of how good/bad the other screens are doing.

But most films have a quick expiration date in theaters. Even for blockbusters the second week drop-off is usually pretty steep, and by week 3 it can be as little as 40% of the first weekend. It's worse of other genres (Horror films, for example, often drop 60% in week two). Its why studios front-load their take on a film ticket -- the longer it runs, the more percentage goes to the theater. But by then the theater is usually just getting very little anyways.

For theaters to turn a profit they need to sell goodies. To sell goodies they need people. To draw people they either need an event film, or something new. "The Purge: Regurge" isn't going to do it after 17 days.

 

[Nick]

There is no way a blockbuster movie would leave in 17 days. Even with the split with theaters, a blockbuster would still be making more money in a theater than on PVOD.
But this opens up venues for small films with limited risk. Most of the investors think this is a positive move for both the studios and AMC. It means the studios can make more lower tier films, and it means AMC isn't stuck with 20 screen and only 5 films making money,

But again, Universal has to convince Regal to join them and in their statement since this, they’re adamantly against it.

I suppose they can go on without Regal and their small movies are AMC only?

 

[quinnmac000]

But again, Universal has to convince Regal to join them and in their statement since this, they’re adamantly against it.

I suppose they can go on without Regal and their small movies are AMC only?

Regal will cave just like AMC ended up after saying they would never show a Universal film again.

 

[Nick]

Regal will cave just like AMC ended up after saying they would never show a Universal film again.

They never said they wouldn’t show another Universal movie first of all. They said they wouldn’t show it under the model Universal was trying which was PVOD and theatrical at the same time.

Also, Regal knows what the specifics of the deal AMC got and has said its trash so I’m skeptical they’ll cave anytime soon.

 

[Mad Dog]

Since films first begin, studios have tried to figure out a sure fire formula for box office success. They haven't accomplished that yet. There's more duds than wild successes. It's not an exact science........Disney got lucky and caught lightening in a bottle with Marvel. But that just may end up a short term success. It's an aberration from the long term norm.

 

[Nick]

This article goes over how exhibitors are pissed and none want to play ball with Universal on this. Words and actions can be two different things and I get that, but right now, this is a barrage against Universal and AMC and no one wants any part of this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/29/universal-pictures-deal-with-amc-wont-likely-mean-you-can-see-big-movies-fast-home/

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Disney pulled the trigger. Mulan will be coming to D+ as an add-on for subscribers, for 29.99, and will be releasing in select theaters.

 

[quinnmac000]

So I got to buy Disney+ and then pay an additional 30 dollars....haha. Joke. Not when all other PVOD was only 20 dollars.

 

[rageofthegods]

So I got to buy Disney+ and then pay an additional 30 dollars....haha. Joke. Not when all other PVOD was only 20 dollars.

Regardless, it's going to be an at-home family offering being released right at the moment Tenet is expected to hit theaters. This is not the news theaters needed to hear at the moment.

 

[DK745]

So I got to buy Disney+ and then pay an additional 30 dollars....haha. Joke. Not when all other PVOD was only 20 dollars.

This is what they do with ESPN+ and UFC as well. UFC PPVs are only on ESPN+ so you have to buy the service before you pay the $60 or whatever for the PPV.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Disney pulled the trigger. Mulan will be coming to D+ as an add-on for subscribers, for 29.99, and will be releasing in select theaters.

Wow.

If this and the AMC-Universal venture are successful, it could change everything for theatrical releases.

 

[quinnmac000]

Regardless, it's going to be an at-home family offering being released right at the moment Tenet is expected to hit theaters. This is not the news theaters needed to hear at the moment.

It also has the political aspect that already has people boycotting this movie. At that price point and the boycott, this movie isn't going to come in hot as they expect.

If theatres don't complain about an actual tentpole film not going to cinema, then I'm calling them on their bull regarding Universal.