Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Jerroddragon]

Universal responds:

Dam, Universal don't give a poop. Thought they would talk more but this seems like they are really telling theaters to suck it.

I know not everyone will agree but......I kinda wish we could have a future with less theaters and more movies out on VOD day one but know how hard that would be

 

[Nick]

Dam, Universal don't give a poop. Thought they would talk more but this seems like they are really telling theaters to suck it.

I know not everyone will agree but......I kinda wish we could have a future with less theaters and more movies out on VOD day one but know how hard that would be

For the VAST majority of movies, going straight to VOD can work and be profitable. But then you have that upper tier of $200M+ budgeted movies with $150M spent on marketing or something like that. Those are the type of movies that need movie theaters still. The DCEU, MCU, Star Wars, Potter, F&F, Christopher Nolan epics, Avatar, and many more. All of those movies need to be played in theaters to make the type of money needed to justify their budgets.

And also, there's those mid-tier movies that I suppose could go straight to VOD like a John Wick or something, but unless you've got a kickass home sound system, there's no way i'm missing out on a theatrical experience for a movie like John Wick. Some movies just demand to be seen in a theater.

 

[Legacy]

For the VAST majority of movies, going straight to VOD can work and be profitable. But then you have that upper tier of $200M+ budgeted movies with $150M spent on marketing or something like that. Those are the type of movies that need movie theaters still. The DCEU, MCU, Star Wars, Potter, F&F, Christopher Nolan epics, Avatar, and many more. All of those movies need to be played in theaters to make the type of money needed to justify their budgets.

And also, there's those mid-tier movies that I suppose could go straight to VOD like a John Wick or something, but unless you've got a kickass home sound system, there's no way i'm missing out on a theatrical experience for a movie like John Wick. Some movies just demand to be seen in a theater.

We’re assuming blockbusters can’t be profitable on VOD, but we’ve only seen blockbusters with marketing campaigns focused on theatrical releases. However, we’ve seen numerous things do incredibly well with marketing campaigns focused on streaming (Stranger Things, Netflix’s Marvel shows, Trolls). If Endgame was only available strictly through VOD, I’d still expect it to make a billion.

You don’t want to miss out on the theatrical experience, but that isn’t a universal opinion. The only thing that gets my wife and I to a theater are huge, culturally important things that require immediate knowledge (Star Wars, Endgame) indie things we can’t see any other way (indie theaters / Alamo styles). Everything else, we’ll wait for. We actively avoid cineplexes, unless there is no other option.

The Hunt, Invisible Man, and Harley Quinn all got $20 from us over VOD that they would have only gotten the $6 rental fee, because they were “first run.” We’d gladly pay $20 to stream the blockbusters on day one. I’d pay $25-$30 for a day one, 4K stream of a Marvel or Jurassic film. Some films, like F&F, Tenet, Mulan, etc, are more likely to get my money during their “initial run” over streaming than in theaters because we don’t like going to theaters.

My couch > any theater

 

[Nick]

Let's also talk piracy when it comes to VOD and why kids/family movies are the only viable audience to profit off of imo. The pirates came out in full force for Emma, The Hunt and The Invisible Man. Not so much for Trolls 2. If a big blockbuster was released VOD, there would certainly be ridiculous amounts of piracy, resulting in loss of revenue.

Obviously there was piracy, but the thing is, once you've gotten to the point in your life where you're married and have a kid or two, you don't want to go through the trouble of doing the torrent thing just to save $20. You just want to watch the movie. So I think Scoob! has a good chance at doing really well too. But if, say, Purge 5 were to be released on VOD, I think the pirates would be out there in full force and it would make a lot less money than it otherwise could.

 

[Legacy]

Let's also talk piracy when it comes to VOD and why kids/family movies are the only viable audience to profit off of imo. The pirates came out in full force for Emma, The Hunt and The Invisible Man. Not so much for Trolls 2. If a big blockbuster was released VOD, there would certainly be ridiculous amounts of piracy, resulting in loss of revenue.

Obviously there was piracy, but the thing is, once you've gotten to the point in your life where you're married and have a kid or two, you don't want to go through the trouble of doing the torrent thing just to save $20. You just want to watch the movie. So I think Scoob! has a good chance at doing really well too. But if, say, Purge 5 were to be released on VOD, I think the pirates would be out there in full force and it would make a lot less money than it otherwise could.

Pirates are going to pirate. The people who are pirating these movies, weren’t paying for the films in the first place.

 

[Nick]

We’re assuming blockbusters can’t be profitable on VOD, but we’ve only seen blockbusters with marketing campaigns focused on theatrical releases. However, we’ve seen numerous things do incredibly well with marketing campaigns focused on streaming (Stranger Things, Netflix’s Marvel shows, Trolls). If Endgame was only available strictly through VOD, I’d still expect it to make a billion.

You don’t want to miss out on the theatrical experience, but that isn’t a universal opinion. The only thing that gets my wife and I to a theater are huge, culturally important things that require immediate knowledge (Star Wars, Endgame) indie things we can’t see any other way (indie theaters / Alamo styles). Everything else, we’ll wait for. We actively avoid cineplexes, unless there is no other option.

The Hunt, Invisible Man, and Harley Quinn all got $20 from us over VOD that they would have only gotten the $6 rental fee, because they were “first run.” We’d gladly pay $20 to stream the blockbusters on day one. I’d pay $25-$30 for a day one, 4K stream of a Marvel or Jurassic film. Some films, like F&F, Tenet, Mulan, etc, are more likely to get my money during their “initial run” over streaming than in theaters because we don’t like going to theaters.

My couch > any theater

Conversely, I haven't spent any money on any of these movies during quarantine. I am only person so $20+ doesn't work for me (don't see the value at least). I'd much rather do $5 Tuesdays at Universal and have recliners.

Pirates are going to pirate. The people who are pirating these movies, weren’t paying for the films in the first place.

That's not necessarily true. Lots of people wanted to pay for The Mandalorian for instance... the just couldn't because their country didn't have Disney+ yet. If you think there wouldn't be a massive surge in piracy once people realize they can watch that $20-$25 movie for free (and it's a big movie like F&F9), then you're kidding yourself.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Obviously there was piracy, but the thing is, once you've gotten to the point in your life where you're married and have a kid or two, you don't want to go through the trouble of doing the torrent thing just to save $20.

Just wait till the tech-savy college kids grow up.

In my experience, piracy really doesn't respect whether a film was released in theaters or whether it was released digitally. Hell, my roommate watched the first thirty minutes of Endgame two days before we saw it in theaters.

EDIT: Of course, this discounts that for some people, the quality difference between a video of a screen and a direct capture is insurmountable.

 

[quinnmac000]

Theater Owners Accuse Universal Of “Destructive Tendency” And Not Involving Circuits In ‘Trolls World Tour’ PVOD Decision

NATO has issued another statement after Universal accused them of being in cahoots with AMC over the chain's refusal to play Uni films.

deadline.com

the saga continues

however..

Disney World & Universal Orlando Theme Parks Reopening Roadmap Includes 50% Capacity In First Phase

It's clear there will be major changes at Central Florida's major theme parks when they begin to reopen.

deadline.com

NATO and AMC are making it worse for themselves because it truly should be up to the consumer to determine how they want to view a film. Secondly, with Netflix and prime and premium television being consumed way more today than in the past, I wouldn’t want to continue on this front.
lastly Universal unlike most the other studios makes way more overseas than stateside so NATO being petty won’t hurt universal as much as it hurts themselves

 

[carnival]

Universal could lose money from lesser known films not being shown in theaters. If AMC wants to do smart damage, they could ban smaller films but allow blockbusters.

 

[Nick]

Theater Owners Accuse Universal Of “Destructive Tendency” And Not Involving Circuits In ‘Trolls World Tour’ PVOD Decision

NATO has issued another statement after Universal accused them of being in cahoots with AMC over the chain's refusal to play Uni films.

deadline.com

the saga continues

however..

Disney World & Universal Orlando Theme Parks Reopening Roadmap Includes 50% Capacity In First Phase

It's clear there will be major changes at Central Florida's major theme parks when they begin to reopen.

deadline.com

NATO and AMC are making it worse for themselves because it truly should be up to the consumer to determine how they want to view a film. Secondly, with Netflix and prime and premium television being consumed way more today than in the past, I wouldn’t want to continue on this front.
lastly Universal unlike most the other studios makes way more overseas than stateside so NATO being petty won’t hurt universal as much as it hurts themselves

NATO doesn't play around. They are fighting to keep theaters alive so of course they're going to fight to have movies in theaters before PVOD - Universal is threatening their entire business model (and potentially breaching contracts). It's not helping that Universal is publicly escalating this fight though. This is something that should be handled in private.

 

[LieutLaww]

AMC should be really careful, they almost went under and if they annoy Universal or any other big studio about putting stuff on VOD over in Cinemas the big studios could just pull all the movies from AMC and let them crash and burn. Universal has shown they don't really care about AMC threatening them.

 

[Cwoolboy]

I stand with Universal on this one.

 

[Scott W.]

You’re up at 3AM Scott?... geeez.

I watched a movie starring Billy Connolly tonight and it reminded me of how you must sound.

During the times of quarantine, my sleep pattern is getting a little worse every day. This is the first day I've woke up before mid day in a while and it's sad I feel a little proud of that. That accent would be pretty close to me.

I think a lot of people are discounting what TROLLS did TBH. Even if Universal can release films on VOD and theaters and make 20-30 mill in the VOD market along with the box office, they’re *absolutely* gonna do that for every film.

People here like going to the theater...but a LOT of people do not. I’ll be honest, I like going to the theater *despite* of everything they do. Most of them are terrible. The people who go are obnoxious, the staff sucks, and everything is priced like the theaters owe money to a shark. RedLetterMedia often talks about how they’d rather rent every movie like this rather than go to the movies

I think we’re witnessing the beginning of a real paradigm shift, and the idea that it can’t or will never work seems dubious at best

This is a very valid point. I think some movies have to be seen in the cinema for the full experience but plenty of people don't like that experience for multiple reasons:

• If somebody has tourettes for example, they could hate going to the cinema but the ability to watch a new movie at home would be a god send.
• Some people can't afford to take a large family.
• Anxiety can completely ruin the cinema experience.
• Some kids just don't have the ability to sit through a movie without kicking and screaming
• Your closest cinema could be far away
• @Legacy also made the great point that some movies just aren't justified to go the cinema for.

The real research is going to be discovering if VOD will cannibalise any theatre sales. I just don't see VOD being available from day 1 but a month after release sounds more plausible.

 

[tielo]

Only thing I want to keep seeing in theaters will be the Rocky Horror Picture Show. Anything else I'd rather see at home. After I got my blood pressure medication I seemingly need to pee every half hour so going to a movie isn't that great anymore.

 

[Nick]

All I know is that seeing a moment like this would not have been nearly as bad ass seeing it at home for the first time instead of in a theater around a bunch of fans:

 

[Scott W.]

Only thing I want to keep seeing in theaters will be the Rocky Horror Picture Show. Anything else I'd rather see at home. After I got my blood pressure medication I seemingly need to pee every half hour so going to a movie isn't that great anymore.

When the Irishman's run time was announced at being 3.5 hours, everybody changed their tune real quick from being a must see in the cinema to waiting for it to release on Netflix for not being able to hold their bladder that long.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Thinking about this overnight, this just seems like a nasty breakup where both sides are just pissed. Universal made the best decision they could (clearly) for their business, AMC and other theaters didn't like their handling of this, now that VOD has been successful for 1 film then AMC turns their back on them fully. Its nasty on both ends and I really have no stake in either side, but I'm more with Universal here. What were they left to do with Trolls? Theatres would be pissed no matter what imo. They're desperate, and its showing. AMC I really do not think has leverage here I do not.

What AMC is pissed at is that for ANY family, VOD makes much more sense. Keep your kid at home where they're naturally easier to deal with, have your own food, wear what you want, and pay the price of essentially 1 ticket. The value for the consumer is so much more for VOD. There are so many people I know who are happy to not go to theaters as well. I fully see this being part of the norm from here on out, whether it is THE norm is too soon to sell, but, Ill be buying/renting King of Staten Island in June or whenever it releases. Its films like the MCU, Tenet, Dune, Jurassic World, that need to be seen on the big screen. I think until the world is able to be normal I see myself using more VOD than anything. I especially don't see this changing for kids films, Trolls has now proven studios can take the risk for VOD and I bet families are going to be more and more willing to do this, especially with theatres closing across the country due to COVID-19.

Also silly of AMC, they recently released their own on demand service. Absolutely no perks for A-list members, and especially none now knowing that COVID-19 is a thing. Like if they offered us to pay $30 a month for 2 rentals or 3 rentals in the month? Id pay for that, but I'm sure that doesn't make sense for studios or AMC. So I simply just don't understand AMC's strategy here. Sh!t on Universal as much as you want but publicly saying "we won't play your films" is turning a long term customer like me away. Hopefully with less films showing they'll have more time to bother cleaning their theaters and treating their employees better!

 

[JungleSkip]

All I know is that seeing a moment like this would not have been nearly as bad ass seeing it at home for the first time instead of in a theater around a bunch of fans:
View attachment 12079

Sure, but that's the only movie last year that I can say that about. I could have happily watched every other movie that I saw in 2019 at home and been perfectly contented.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

All I know is that seeing a moment like this would not have been nearly as bad ass seeing it at home for the first time instead of in a theater around a bunch of fans:
View attachment 12079

I agree with this. I lost my mind but my crowd sucked and I basically disturbed everyone around me lol, I was like "Come on people!!!!"

The other counterargument would be get your exact group of friends who share that same feeling and watch at someones house together, for a cheaper price. Watching Get Out with my friends at home was still an unforgettable experience. I love theatre but I'm accepting they're not ever gonna be the same.

 

[Grabnar]

Hopefully with less films showing they'll have more time to bother cleaning their theaters and treating their employees better!

100% this, I haven't been to an AMC in maybe 5-6 years now because every one near me is disgusting. There's one here that is well-known for having a huge bedbug infestation that they haven't done anything about. If I go to the movies I'm going to an Alamo or barring that an XD showing at Cinemark.