Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

I suspect Universal will pick a movie that wasn't going to do that well anyway, release it to the theaters and let them keep a larger percentage of profits or maybe all of it. That will make them happy and cost Uni very little.

This is the type of situation I could see playing out.

 

[Scott W.]

Comcast is going to buy AMC isn’t it?

 

[Disneyhead]

Comcast is going to buy AMC isn’t it?

Yep.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

This seems like classic negotiation tactics, I'm not reading much into it.

 

[Scott W.]

I don’t see the success of Trolls being indicative of the future release plan.

I think there’s always more money to be made by releasing to theatres especially now in this digital age.

 

[quinnmac000]

I do want to point out AMC is about to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy so this is the dumbest move I’ve ever seen.

Secondly, international distributors are accepting the theatre release as well as the VOD at the same time (see korea). If that goes well, the US market will be far behind the rest of the world in innovation

 

[Nick]

I do want to point out AMC is about to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy so this is the dumbest move I’ve ever seen.

Secondly, international distributors are accepting the theatre release as well as the VOD at the same time (see korea). If that goes well, the US market will be far behind the rest of the world in innovation

They avoided having to file for bankruptcy with a $500M bond.

 

[Legacy]

That's how it normally works, yes. But if you wanna show a film in their theaters and they're pissed at you, you're not playing by normal terms anymore.

This is assuming Universal wants to show the films in theaters. AMC is all spun up because Universal looks to be fine with not relying on theaters.

I wouldn’t be half surprised if Universal shrugs at AMC and does PVOD same-date release. The only thing that makes theaters a “must” is award consideration, and Netflix found the workaround for that.

I don’t see the success of Trolls being indicative of the future release plan.

I think there’s always more money to be made by releasing to theatres especially now in this digital age.

I’m much more inclined to see a film through VOD than in theaters. The studios got more of my money for Invisible Man and The Hunt got more money from my wallet by doing a $20 VOD than two $22 tickets would have gotten them.

 

[fryoj]

I'd hesitate to use Troll's numbers as an indicator of what to expect in the future for new releases. It was a high profile kids movie released right when the world shut down and parents were confined to their houses with their kids. If theaters and schools were open and all was right in the world, it only does a fraction of what it did.

 

[Nick]

This is assuming Universal wants to show the films in theaters. AMC is all spun up because Universal looks to be fine with not relying on theaters.

Trolls made $100M. Universal is looking to make $1B off of its premiere franchises like Fast, Jurassic, Minions. That simply won’t happen with VOD.

Now could I see a change in release? Sure. I think maybe after the first weekend or two, we could be looking at movies going direct to VOD. Or maybe a mix of VOD and theaters from day 1.

All I know, is I would hate to lose the theater experience, but I think the studios are seeing this pandemic as a golden opportunity to change audience viewing habits. Especially since not everyone will be jumping out of the skin to run to a movie theater when they open in the current climate.

Interesting times. I can feel the winds of change upon us.

 

[Scott W.]

This is assuming Universal wants to show the films in theaters. AMC is all spun up because Universal looks to be fine with not relying on theaters.

I wouldn’t be half surprised if Universal shrugs at AMC and does PVOD same-date release. The only thing that makes theaters a “must” is award consideration, and Netflix found the workaround for that.
I’m much more inclined to see a film through VOD than in theaters. The studios got more of my money for Invisible Man and The Hunt got more money from my wallet by doing a $20 VOD than two $22 tickets would have gotten them.

Those are smaller movies though. If Endgame came out on VOD, it would never have made as much.

The theatre route guarantees sales for popular movies because it’s the only place to see a new movie outside of crap quality pirated videos.

There could be a middle ground for a months release in theatres before moving to VOD.

Kids movies are also a terrible metric for measuring success because their success will also highly depend on merchandising sales.

 

[Teebin]

You’re up at 3AM Scott?... geeez.

I watched a movie starring Billy Connolly tonight and it reminded me of how you must sound.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

And the last movie I saw in a movie theatre, possibly in 2020, was Impractical Jokers The Movie. Before that was Call Of The Wild. Disappointing to say the least lol

 

[Legacy]

Or maybe a mix of VOD and theaters from day 1.

Which is the exact proposal that got AMC all bothered in the first place.

I get the desire for the theater experience but, at the same time, the only reason certain films make the box office they do is because they’re culturally important and only accessible at theaters. A movie like Avengers, Star Wars, F&F, or Jurassic Park is still a cultural event that people will feel like they “have” to see. The delivery model doesn’t completely change their relevance and draw.

Let’s say Universal releases Jurassic World: Dominion strictly on VOD. Will people not watch it? Sure, groups of friends will pay $20 instead of $10 a person, but some will pay $20 for one or two people.

People are acting like it can’t change, just because it hasn’t. But the success of cultural hits on streaming services (stuff like Stranger Things, The Irishman, Transparent, Man In the High Castle, etc), beyond Trolls, has proven that the delivery method is far less important than the significance of the media itself.

 

[JungleSkip]

I think a lot of people are discounting what TROLLS did TBH. Even if Universal can release films on VOD and theaters and make 20-30 mill in the VOD market along with the box office, they’re *absolutely* gonna do that for every film.

People here like going to the theater...but a LOT of people do not. I’ll be honest, I like going to the theater *despite* of everything they do. Most of them are terrible. The people who go are obnoxious, the staff sucks, and everything is priced like the theaters owe money to a shark. RedLetterMedia often talks about how they’d rather rent every movie like this rather than go to the movies

I think we’re witnessing the beginning of a real paradigm shift, and the idea that it can’t or will never work seems dubious at best

 

[Nick]

Which is the exact proposal that got AMC all bothered in the first place.

I get the desire for the theater experience but, at the same time, the only reason certain theaters make the box office they do is because they’re culturally important and only accessible at theaters. A movie like Avengers, Star Wars, F&F, or Jurassic Park is still a cultural event that people will feel like they “have” to see. The delivery model doesn’t completely change their relevance and draw.

Let’s say Universal releases Jurassic World: Dominion strictly on VOD. Will people not watch it? Sure, groups of friends will pay $20 instead of $10 a person, but some will pay $20 for one or two people.

People are acting like it can’t change, just because it hasn’t. But the success of cultural hits on streaming services (stuff like Stranger Things, The Irishman, Transparent, Man In the High Castle, etc), beyond Trolls, has proven that the delivery method is far less important than the significance of the media itself.

This is basically the theater owners stance on the Trolls World Tour situation:
Universal is going a step further in announcing that DreamWorks Animation’s April film Trolls World Tour will open day-and-date on premium VOD and in any theaters around the globe that remain open. Your thoughts?

Trolls World Tour is a very different story. For all the movies that had been scheduled for release during April and May, every other distributor announced delays to later times. But they still intend to release those delayed movies theatrically. Some of those delays have specific new dates [including Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2, which is now scheduled for August; MGM’s No Time to Die, which will open in November; and Universal’s F9 next year]. And some have been postponed for unspecified dates. But all of the movies with originally planned release dates in April and May, with the one exception of Trolls, will be released later theatrically, with full theatrical windows. All those other studios demonstrated their belief that the theatrical model is still essential to their business, they just had to delay release dates because of the virus.

How understanding are theater owners regarding Trolls?

Only Universal, and only on Trolls, did one studio skip the theatrical model and go straight to the home. Universal continues to advertise to consumers that Trolls will be released simultaneously to theaters and the home on April 10. And they are lying to consumers. Universal knows that theaters will still be closed on April 10, so unlike every other distributor who must simply delay their releases in that time period, but still understand that theatrical release is essential to their business model, Universal on Trolls didn’t make that decision. Exhibitors will not forget this.

Have studios otherwise assured theater owners that they won’t break windows, including with delayed event pics such as Disney’s Mulan and Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II, which have been delayed but don’t yet have new release dates?

Yes, with the exception of Universal, every studio has gone overboard to reassure exhibitors that the theatrical model works for them, and that they look forward to releasing their movies theatrically once the virus is done. And every one of those studios called their exhibition partners and talked through their plans for delayed release before they announced them. Only Universal on Trolls undermined the theatrical model. And Universal told no exhibitor about their plans on Trolls until approximately 20 minutes before their announcement. Exhibitors know who their partners are. And every other studio has demonstrated true partnership and belief in the theatrical model during this time of crisis for all Americans, and indeed all moviegoers around the world.

Notice on the last question especially, they really seem to have a bone to pick with Universal and they say they were only notified 20 MINUTES prior to public announcement. They also seem to have an issue with the fact that they didn't change their marketing from saying theatrical release. I remember they changed it to VOD and theaters, which was false as theaters were closed. This was March 20th, well before the VOD release of Trolls.

Read the whole thing here:

Theater Owners Chief on Universal’s ‘Trolls’ On-Demand Play: “Exhibitors Will Not Forget This”

John Fithian expects most U.S. exhibitors to be closed for two months and hopes Congress will act to help the industry's 150,000 furloughed workers and keep cinemas afloat.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[GadgetGuru]

I think Trolls’ “success” is being wildly overstated.

It made a decent chunk of change during a time when it was the only new thing to watch in the world. No other VOD movie will ever have the captive attention Trolls had ever again.

AMC and other theater owners have to be mad publicly because they have a raw deal. They are completely dependent on the studios for their existence.

Theaters are still going to exist. Endgame made close to $1B in theatrical profit, plus DVD/VOD on top of that. For the biggest blockbusters (of which Trolls was never one of them), VOD will never be as profitable. There’s no world where VOD is getting $12 a person.

 

[quinnmac000]

Universal Responds To AMC: Studio Believes In Theatrical, But Expects To Release Movies Directly To Theatres & PVOD When “Outlet Makes Sense”

Universal has responded to AMC boss Adam Aron telling the studio that the chain won't be playing their titles at their global venues.

deadline.com

universal has spoken

 

[Nick]

Universal responds:

 

[JungleSkip]

I think Trolls’ “success” is being wildly overstated.

It made a decent chunk of change during a time when it was the only new thing to watch in the world. No other VOD movie will ever have the captive attention Trolls had ever again.

AMC and other theater owners have to be mad publicly because they have a raw deal. They are completely dependent on the studios for their existence.

Theaters are still going to exist. Endgame made close to $1B in theatrical profit, plus DVD/VOD on top of that. For the biggest blockbusters (of which Trolls was never one of them), VOD will never be as profitable. There’s no world where VOD is getting $12 a person.

The point is when bypassing the theaters, they don’t *need* to get $12 a person.

And we have no idea what a blockbuster would make on VOD, because we haven’t seen one try.

I think it’s really weird that people here are saying “People will never watch a VOD release when they’re back to doing other things”. How and why does that make any sense?It takes infinitely more time to go to a theater (not to mention the expense) than it does to watch a movie at home where you don’t have to plan around a showtime and can have your own better and cheaper snacks.

hell I’d see infinitely more movies if they released day and date on VOD.