Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Jerroddragon]

Why are you shocked? The theaters always tell Netflix if they want to play in the major theaters that Netflix needs to agree to the 90-day window. That's all the theaters are asking for here. If you start to cut into their window, then you start to put them out of business. They need to stand up for themselves to keep from that happening.

They've been very consistant on the 90-day window policy.

I guess but if people want to see Netflix films in theaters...to me its dumb not to let them. Over having empty theaters playing some movie 4 people are going to watch.

I'm sure you've looked into it before but Movie Theaters haven't been on the rise the past few years and then Moviepass changes the model, to me this is another moviepass you can fight it or find a way to join it.
But if Disney takes Universal side its over.

 

[Nick]

I guess but if people want to see Netflix films in theaters...to me its dumb not to let them. Over having empty theaters playing some movie 4 people are going to watch.

I'm sure you've looked into it before but Movie Theaters haven't been on the rise the past few years and then Moviepass changes the model, to me this is another moviepass you can fight it or find a way to join it.
But if Disney takes Universal side its over.

Since Disney lives and dies by the big budget film and expects at least a few Billion dollar films per year, Disney needs theaters more than any Studio imo.

I think it would be a savvy move for Iger to come out in full support of NATO and of all theaters and say they have no plans to break the 90 day window at all. WB similarly needs theaters around for a lot of their content.

 

[Legacy]

Here's the key part - and what all theaters are mad about:

As long as Universal sticks to the 90 day window, then there's no beef. If they go against it, then things will get interesting.

A 90 day window is so archaic and arbitrary though. Most films are out of theaters, or down to one or two showings a day within 6 weeks (45 days). That means studios can be stuck with a film that can’t make any money at all for weeks, and requires them to remarket the films for home release (which increases marketing costs).

This whole thing kinda reminds me of the initial XBox One announcement. It was initially announced as an “always online” system, explicitly to enforce its DRM and prevent the sale of pre-owned games. At the time (2012/2013) about half of all video games were sold digitally, and required an online connection. Gamers and retailers lost it, because it was such a cataclysmic shift in the structure and social agreement of video games. People, at the time, couldn’t believe that video games wouldn’t be predominantly physical. XBox walked back some elements of it because of the outcry.

However, in 2019, digitally sales of PlayStation games surpassed physical for the first time. In 2018, 83% of all video game sales were digital. Despite physical versions still being released, GameStop is struggling and could conceivably not survive the year. The market shifted, and continues to shift, to a predominantly digital model. It’s inevitable.

 

[Nick]

A 90 day window is so archaic and arbitrary though. Most films are out of theaters, or down to one or two showings a day within 6 weeks (45 days). That means studios can be stuck with a film that can’t make any money at all for weeks, and requires them to remarket the films for home release (which increases marketing costs).

This whole thing kinda reminds me of the initial XBox One announcement. It was initially announced as an “always online” system, explicitly to enforce its DRM and prevent the sale of pre-owned games. At the time (2012/2013) about half of all video games were sold digitally, and required an online connection. Gamers and retailers lost it, because it was such a cataclysmic shift in the structure and social agreement of video games. People, at the time, couldn’t believe that video games wouldn’t be predominantly physical. XBox walked back some elements of it because of the outcry.

However, in 2019, digitally sales of PlayStation games surpassed physical for the first time. In 2018, 83% of all video game sales were digital. Despite physical versions still being released, GameStop is struggling and could conceivably not survive the year. The market shifted, and continues to shift, to a predominantly digital model. It’s inevitable.

I can see the window being reduced to 75 days maybe. I get it's old fashioned to have these windows, but movie theaters would already be out of business if the window was somewhere around 45 days. From the theaters standpoint, you can't lower the window that low because then less people will go spend money to see the movie in theaters if they know they'd be able to get it at home a month after theatrical release. So unless it's a movie where you have to see it quick to avoid spoilers, then it's bye, bye theaters.

The theaters are fighting for their life as is right now and Universal isn't helping by making comments that is further threatening to their viability.

I can see it from your side though. I love downloading games digitally now and I admit that even that was a process for me. But that was a simple adjustment because that was simply how you a change from buying physically to downloading digitally. There was no change in the actual gaming experience. This would be a massive shift for the experience of movie going and I still contend that Studios wouldn't make the same amount of money. Let me know when a blockbuster movie is scheduled for PVOD. Those are the numbers I want to see.

Again, I know that I've said this, but it bears repeating that not a single blockbuster got relegated to streaming or PVOD in the release schedule changes. That tells me that, right now, Studios still think that there's more money to be made at the movie theaters than from PVOD.

 

[CoryLevy91]

The market shifted, and continues to shift, to a predominantly digital model. It’s inevitable.

This seems like the real core of the 'issue' between Universal (or any movie studio, really) and AMC (or any theater chain). VOD and in-home releases of films make so much sense for both consumers (cheaper cost for an entire family, comfort of your own home, ability to pause/rewind, not having to travel, not having to schedule around a show time, all it takes is a nice TV for a comparable screen in the eyes of the general populace) and studios (getting to cut the middle man out directly). Universal is just the first one to throw caution to the wind and release an above average release straight to VOD; they took the opportunity of the world's lock in and ran with it and it worked out pretty damn well for them.

Sooner or later someone was going to attempt something similar, be it decreasing the theater-only window more and more until we witnessed a same-day release in both theaters and in home. Movie theaters can act upset with the studios as much as they want, but it's not the studios fault we're at a point in technological advancement that could threaten the movie theater's existence. Not should anyone fault movie studios for wanting to take advantage and make more money.

All it'll take is one tent pole film to make big money on VOD and it'd be the literal end game for theaters. Whether any studio would be willing to take that risk is the question. If the world does reopen and theaters are still operating, I would imagine we'll eventually see something akin to big films debuting in theaters for two or three weeks and then getting released on VOD.

I personally love watching movies in theaters despite all the pitfalls of the experience but in home is just clearly the way of the future.

 

[Scott W.]

Grace Randolph had very similar thoughts, as well. She normally has pretty different opinions from Campea so I found that interesting.

I feel like what this is about from Universal's POV is trying to get the GP on their side, which seems to be working for the most part. You have to remember that Universal is owned by Comcast, who also owns Fandango and now Vudu as well. They want nothing to do with the middle man that is the movie theater industry. Comcast takes home 100% of a rental/purchase from 3 different platforms. From their perspective, if they can shift audience habits enough, they would like to be able to eventually not be reliant on theaters at all and instead of taking home 50-60% from a theater, take home greater than 80%.

The movie theaters have no choice but to fight back because if Universal wins public opinion and does manage to change viewing habits, then the theaters will go out of business, plain and simple. This is all posturing from both sides.

Looking at the studios take going from 50% to 100% makes my argument about loss of ticket sales redundant.

If they’re getting half the sales but double the profit, it balances out.

I don’t know what the average group that goes to the cinema is but I’d probably say it’s slightly below 3. If they’re selling a new title at 20 bucks, they’re making more money.

To get to the core of this debate. I understand AMCs stance. It’s in their business interest to keep things as they are.

For consumers, more choice is always going to be better and if a group of people can save some money, it’s a nice bonus.

From the studios perspective, it could be a risk but it’s an avenue of interest, especially now with what’s going on in the world.

For the serious movie goers, the idea of theatres closing is a devastating thought.

 

[Nick]

Looking at the studios take going from 50% to 100% makes my argument about loss of ticket sales redundant.

If they’re getting half the sales but double the profit, it balances out.

I don’t know what the average group that goes to the cinema is but I’d probably say it’s slightly below 3. If they’re selling a new title at 20 bucks, they’re making more money.

To get to the core of this debate. I understand AMCs stance. It’s in their business interest to keep things as they are.

For consumers, more choice is always going to be better and if a group of people can save some money, it’s a nice bonus.

From the studios perspective, it could be a risk but it’s an avenue of interest, especially now with what’s going on in the world.

For the serious movie goers, the idea of theatres closing is a devastating thought.

80% is the standard, but since they own many of the outlets, Comcast takes home 100% a decent amount of the time. iTunes, Amazon and YouTube are still the biggest players in VOD sales though, so it's not like they are walking away from every purchase with 100%.

And yeah, I think you hit it on the head with everything else you said.

 

[fryoj]

Since Disney lives and dies by the big budget film and expects at least a few Billion dollar films per year, Disney needs theaters more than any Studio imo.

I think it would be a savvy move for Iger to come out in full support of NATO and of all theaters and say they have no plans to break the 90 day window at all. WB similarly needs theaters around for a lot of their content.

Idk. I can see it both ways. They come out and side with Uni, and they can leverage the theaters for about anything they want. They can't take it all because they can't just put the theaters out of business. They could use it to change percentages or change the VOD dates on smaller films and agreeing to preserve the status quo on the blockbusters. Any little advantage they can take can mean millions.

Of course they could possibly negotiate the same thing plus a more preferable position and screen count vs the Uni movies with the theaters in return for not siding with Uni.

 

[HandsomePete]

However, in 2019, digitally sales of PlayStation games surpassed physical for the first time. In 2018, 83% of all video game sales were digital. Despite physical versions still being released, GameStop is struggling and could conceivably not survive the year. The market shifted, and continues to shift, to a predominantly digital model. It’s inevitable.

But having a game disc isn't a superior experience to a digital download that just shows up on your console. Zero difference in gameplay.

Watching a movie in a theater blows away having a movie show up on your Amazon account and watching it on your own TV. There's actually a gap in the consumption experience there.

Apples and oranges, and that's before you even get into the fact that video games don't get pirated at anything close to the rate that movies do.

The whole thing is bizarre out of Universal. I know you try to put out as positive as news as possible when most of the business climate is negative, but tooting your horn and screaming new normal about making like $100M on a film that you probably lost money on is like being the soccer team walking down the tunnel celebrating a draw.

 

[Lucky Planet]

this whole thing reminds me of when music companies were battling the invention of the cassette player. or invention of cds, or invention of napster, or youtube, or itunes, etc 

things change. im sure there are thousands of people that miss theaters, but society is changing and a lot of people are realizing they dont need theaters as much as they thought.

i personally was getting soured by theaters because there is always some younger person texting the entire time.
or the person that talks the entire time.
or the bare feet on top of the chairs.
or the dirty seats left by the people before.
or the sticky floors,
i know watching a movie on a giant screen is a pretty amazing experience, i know,

but this pandemic was basically the last straw of a long line of problems with theaters.
i know there are a lot of fans of theaters that will alwaus support them, maybe most movie fans, and giant screens truly are amazing,
but in our world of instant access and comfort of home, theaters do seem like more trouble that they are worth.
in the past they were worth visiting because we didnt have much options and smartphones didnt exist.

 

[quinnmac000]

The question is does the cost equal the value....

A movie for two people for me here in Korea with 2x tickets, two popcorn, and two drink at a luxury premium theater is only $20 total. So VOD here in Korea at $20 isn't worth it. However Stateside, me going to the movies would cost maybe $50 for less quality. I'm not paying that amount. Its exorbitant. Its not just about the recliners and the food and the bars. There are so many other factors that come into play which is why more and more people want to stay home.

AMC, CINEWORLD, and more under the NATO need to think things through especially when if I remember correctly, most of them don't actually own the land their theaters are on and are just paying rent.

 

[Legacy]

Watching a movie in a theater blows away having a movie show up on your Amazon account and watching it on your own TV.

Hard disagree. The theater-going experience is not objectively better. I find watching a home a more enjoyable experience than going to a theater. I can VOD a 4K stream, and enjoy it with a 7:1 surround sound system, without leaving my couch. It’s cheaper, quieter, more convenient, and more comfortable than a theater.

And that’s really the crux of my argument. People enjoy seeing movies more than they enjoy going to the movies. That’s why ticket sales are trending down; for an ever increasing part of the market, going to the movies isn’t as enjoyable as doing anything else. And that’s what the theaters are trying to ignore.

 

[Nick]

Personally, I never buy food at a movie theater and bring in my drink and snacks from outside. $8.50 on a ticket (Or less on $5 Tuesday’s) and that’s mostly it. I find extreme value out of that versus what PVOD is charging. As a film fan too, I just enjoy the theater experience. Always have.

Obviously, it seems I’m in a minority though with this opinion.

 

[Jerroddragon]

Personally, I never buy food at a movie theater and bring in my drink and snacks from outside. $8.50 on a ticket (Or less on $5 Tuesday’s) and that’s mostly it. I find extreme value out of that versus what PVOD is charging. As a film fan too, I just enjoy the theater experience. Always have.

Obviously, it seems I’m in a minority though with this opinion.

I'm with you on bringing in food and liking seeing most films in theaters....but being at home and being "forced" to watch films on my TV hasn't been so bad for some films. It's also nice, I can pause it or go to the restroom.

I will be excited to see films again at AMC....butttttttttt also don't see them having much power and some theaters (like the one at Universal Hollywood) are over priced, soooo much it's no wonder besides really big films that theater is rarely selling out most showtimes.
If i was AMC and I'm coming back I'd have a Movie pass along with some sort of food pass or something new to get people to come back.

 

[Nick]

I'm with you on bringing in food and liking seeing most films in theaters....but being at home and being "forced" to watch films on my TV hasn't been so bad for some films. It's also nice, I can pause it or go to the restroom.

I will be excited to see films again at AMC....butttttttttt also don't see them having much power and some theaters (like the one at Universal Hollywood) are over priced, soooo much it's no wonder besides really big films that theater is rarely selling out most showtimes.
If i was AMC and I'm coming back I'd have a Movie pass along with some sort of food pass or something new to get people to come back.

I agree that some lower tier films could just become PVOD films from now on. It helps clear up the release schedule and a lot of people don’t see those types of films in theaters anyway.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Considering AMC was going bankrupt WITH product, I doubt Universal feels much threatened by them. Regal may be a different story. However if the theaters decide to block everyone who shifts everything but blockbusters to VOD or streaming they will be left with films from.... MGM.
Plus there is no deterrent to studios buying their own theaters. Disney did. Netflix did. Heck, if they want to reserve theaters for just blockbusters, it might even make more sense for them

 

[Scott W.]

Hard disagree. The theater-going experience is not objectively better. I find watching a home a more enjoyable experience than going to a theater. I can VOD a 4K stream, and enjoy it with a 7:1 surround sound system, without leaving my couch. It’s cheaper, quieter, more convenient, and more comfortable than a theater.

And that’s really the crux of my argument. People enjoy seeing movies more than they enjoy going to the movies. That’s why ticket sales are trending down; for an ever increasing part of the market, going to the movies isn’t as enjoyable as doing anything else. And that’s what the theaters are trying to ignore.

I think that works for you and plenty of people but is purely subjective. Not everybody has that option.

For some people, they will also like the event free from distractions, mainly not picking up their phone every 2 minutes.

But like I said earlier, this is giving consumers more options to do what’s best for them.

I also can’t help but find the irony in discussing value here considering this is a theme park forum.

 

[Lucky Planet]

Hard disagree. The theater-going experience is not objectively better. I find watching a home a more enjoyable experience than going to a theater. I can VOD a 4K stream, and enjoy it with a 7:1 surround sound system, without leaving my couch. It’s cheaper, quieter, more convenient, and more comfortable than a theater.

And that’s really the crux of my argument. People enjoy seeing movies more than they enjoy going to the movies. That’s why ticket sales are trending down; for an ever increasing part of the market, going to the movies isn’t as enjoyable as doing anything else. And that’s what the theaters are trying to ignore.

I'm with you on bringing in food and liking seeing most films in theaters....but being at home and being "forced" to watch films on my TV hasn't been so bad for some films. It's also nice, I can pause it or go to the restroom.

I will be excited to see films again at AMC....butttttttttt also don't see them having much power and some theaters (like the one at Universal Hollywood) are over priced, soooo much it's no wonder besides really big films that theater is rarely selling out most showtimes.
If i was AMC and I'm coming back I'd have a Movie pass along with some sort of food pass or something new to get people to come back.

the giant screens are what keeps people wanting the theater experience, and it works for big action scenes with special effects, (like Marvel)
but most comedies and dramas arent even that impressive for a big screen, or even horror,

if the movie doesnt have big special effects or action scenes, the theater experience is not that special. a movie like Step brothers doesnt need a theatrical release lol.

and even then, while our TVs might be smaller, but their quality is higher, i saw Aquaman in theaters (which was great) but watching it on high def tv left a better impression since i saw more detail.

i try to compare both memories and the theater quality was kinda grainy in comparison. same with Ready Player One, i even saw Ready Player one in 3D,
but the home experience was more memorable due to the higher def, i noticed more details, better color.

i watch a movie in theaters maybe once or twice, but watch it at home 20-30 times, eventually the home experience is what i remember most.
sometimes i cant even remember the theater experience at all, there are some movies that i watched in theaters, but i mostly only remember details of the home version

 

[lowbudget]

The theater experience, in my opinion, will still exist for quite a while but look differently. There is still a lot to be said for the event of physically going to the movies and the mental excitement that creates. I really think boutique theaters like Alamo are ahead of the curve and will be the business model of the future. Large cinemas and their current business model like AMC and Cinemark are dead men walking.

The threat of going straight to video on demand has been in the back of everyone's mind, Universal is just the first to say it out loud and make it real. AMC has a right to be pissed at the breach of status quo, but they also have to realize that they are grasping at straws to stay alive and have to come off their current stance to stay viable past 2030.

 

[alomar]

The piracy argument is weak because HBO shows get pirated all the time and are some of the most popular films and remember the first Frozen leaked online before release and then blew up afterwards.

1. A family of 4 spending $20 is way less than $80 to view the exact same movie.

2. If unemployment is at the level it is, how the heck are people going to pay to go to the movies? They got other priorities like mortgages and credit card debt they built up.

3.This argument is moot if the next COVID wave is worse than this one, because those theatres won’t be able to open

Literally came here to say this, the piracy argument is the same old tired argument for the past 20 years. "it will kill the music industry and artists will go broke", anyone want to show me the dead music industry? Or are Kanye, Bieber and the like starving for money?

Like mentioned HBO had one of the most pirated TV shows EVER, and they did nothing about it, and yet......HBO didn't go bust. Millions of people still paid HBO to watch GoT (shock.....at home too!).
Piracy is here to stay and will never go away. Most industries have figured out how to work with it.....Theaters are panicking because people are starting to realize the cost is way too high. Just stop the piracy talk, only boomers still consider piracy a threat and it is a weak argument that is made when a valid one cannot be found.