Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[fryoj]

I see a Deluxe Golf Hotel as less likely than an golf course on the property. If someone said lets re-theme RPR to.... Golf. People would flip out. So to theme one of their few marquis hotels to a sport that is seeing sinking tv ratings and lower participation just makes no sense. I get the desire to market to the convention crowd, but it's not like the convention crowd is only golfers. The Deluxe hotels would not be themed to something that doesn't appeal to most people. I don't think even a moderate or value would be either. Just doesn't have enough GP appeal to support that.

As for tournaments, a PGA level course is going to be 150+ acres(1/3-1/4 of their current southern land). Do you think they are going to use 150 acres on a golf course or another theme park?

 

[Parkscope Joe]

I see a Deluxe Golf Hotel as less likely than an golf course on the property. If someone said lets re-theme RPR to.... Golf. People would flip out. So to theme one of their few marquis hotels to a sport that is seeing sinking tv ratings and lower participation just makes no sense. I get the desire to market to the convention crowd, but it's not like the convention crowd is only golfers. The Deluxe hotels would not be themed to something that doesn't appeal to most people. I don't think even a moderate or value would be either. Just doesn't have enough GP appeal to support that.

As for tournaments, a PGA level course is going to be 150+ acres(1/3-1/4 of their current southern land). Do you think they are going to use 150 acres on a golf course or another theme park?

You’re extrapolating something I’m not intending to suggest. A course can be attached to a hotel (or entertainment complex like TopGolf) without being themed or centered around golf. Old Key West has a golf course. Many Vegas hotels have courses too.

 

[Andysol]

In a way, if they were to do Cirque and PGA/Golf as deluxes and a DWA hotel as a moderate, that could be a good balance for when the southern property gets the third/fourth gate.

They'll have significantly more than 3 resorts, one would think. If they can shoehorn in 6 resorts in their current property, I'd expect no less than 6-8 at the new one.

Golf courses are something you build after you're fully "hoteled"; we'll have to wait and see. The reality is that Universal was under-hoteled for so long that now it's barely just getting to passable.

Huh? Disney built two of their giant courses (Magnolia and Palm) in 1971 - opening alongside Magic Kingdom and all of WDW. And the following year they opened their third- Lake Buena Vista. Oak Trail was 82. So Disney opened their golf courses before dozens of their hotels- with the main 3 before any of their hotels or other theme parks outside of Contemporary, Poly and MK (which opened up alongside them).
In fact, they built the hotels/Timeshares around the existing golf courses (in OKW and Saratoga Spring's cases).

As for tournaments, a PGA level course is going to be 150+ acres(1/3-1/4 of their current southern land). Do you think they are going to use 150 acres on a golf course or another theme park?

I wouldn't think they'd go for "PGA Tournaments"- more convention tournaments. A 9-hole course or 2 would be plenty adequate. Disney's Oak Trail, for example, is 40 acres.
In fact, they'd be crazy not to put a 9-hole course with the acreage they would have if they get Stan's area. It's inexpensive to construct, beautiful, easy to market- and it makes money. Should or would they put a 150 acre PGA tour course in it? I wouldn't think so, nor would I want them to- that'd be crazy.

 

[Mad Dog]

In the 70's golf was essential for conducting business and a prime vacation enticement. It's no longer so on either count. It's a dying sport. Many courses close each year and new courses are a rarity. Real estate is too valuable to waste on golf courses. They're going the way of the American enclosed shopping mall.

 

[zg44]

They'll have significantly more than 3 resorts, one would think. If they can shoehorn in 6 resorts in their current property, I'd expect no less than 6-8 at the new one.


Huh? Disney built two of their giant courses (Magnolia and Palm) in 1971 - opening alongside Magic Kingdom and all of WDW. And the following year they opened their third- Lake Buena Vista. Oak Trail was 82. So Disney opened their golf courses before dozens of their hotels- with the main 3 before any of their hotels or other theme parks outside of Contemporary, Poly and MK (which opened up alongside them).
In fact, they built the hotels/Timeshares around the existing golf courses (in OKW and Saratoga Spring's cases).


I wouldn't think they'd go for "PGA Tournaments"- more convention tournaments. A 9-hole course or 2 would be plenty adequate. Disney's Oak Trail, for example, is 40 acres.
In fact, they'd be crazy not to put a 9-hole course with the acreage they would have if they get Stan's area. It's inexpensive to construct, beautiful, easy to market- and it makes money. Should or would they put a 150 acre PGA tour course in it? I wouldn't think so, nor would I want them to- that'd be crazy.

That was a different world with different economics. Disney had (and still does in Orlando) unlimited land, and land allocating works differently when you're budgeting for assumed attendance in the 2020s versus 50 years ago. @Mad Dog points out some other factors.

I.E. If Disney was to build a 5th park nowadays, they'd immediately need to budget it at 12m+ attendance annually after 5 years and the requisite buildout for that and what percentage of guests need new rooms etc.

Universal is allocating land for a resort that may need to handle guests for 2 dry parks with 10m attendance each annually after 5-7 years of operation. And you need to budget 13,000-15,000 hotel rooms if that comes to pass.

 

[JungleSkip]

I don't think there's any chance there will be 2 more dry parks, FWIW

 

[Andysol]

Golf courses are something you build after you're fully "hoteled"; we'll have to wait and see. The reality is that Universal was under-hoteled for so long that now it's barely just getting to passable.

That was a different world with different economics. Disney had (and still does in Orlando) unlimited land, and land allocating works differently when you're budgeting for assumed attendance in the 2020s versus 50 years ago. @Mad Dog points out some other factors.

I.E. If Disney was to build a 5th park nowadays, they'd immediately need to budget it at 12m+ attendance annually after 5 years and the requisite buildout for that and what percentage of guests need new rooms etc.

Universal is allocating land for a resort that may need to handle guests for 2 dry parks with 10m attendance each after 5-7 years annually of operation. And you need to budget 13,000-15,000 hotel rooms if that comes to pass.

Look- I understand the 70s were different in many ways. I understand Disney had unlimited land. I understand all that- but you stated:

Golf courses are something you build after you're fully "hoteled"; we'll have to wait and see. The reality is that Universal was under-hoteled for so long that now it's barely just getting to passable.

Where do you get the information to make that statement? What other resort is comparable to what will be Universal's ~1200 acres, 3-4 Theme Parks, 2 water parks, 2 citiwalks, and a dozen+ hotels if not Disney World?

A ~40-Acre 9-hole course next to a hotel is certainly not out of the question for phase one. Not at all.

 

[Teebin]

I do not see Universal ever building a golf course, ever ever ever. And with a cherry on top... never.

 

[Mike S]

 

[zg44]

Look- I understand the 70s were different in many ways. I understand Disney had unlimited land. I understand all that- but you stated:


Where do you get the information to make that statement? What other resort is comparable to what will be Universal's ~1200 acres, 3-4 Theme Parks, 2 water parks, 2 citiwalks, and a dozen+ hotels if not Disney World?
"Golf is dying", yet Disney built another course in 2014- yet they clearly aren't "fully hoteled" based on their recent hotel announcements and projects (even excluding strong rumors like future epcot hotel, etc)

A ~40-Acre 9-hole course next to a hotel is certainly not out of the question for phase one. Not at all.

I was talking about allocating land. The reality is that WDW has never acted or built as if it is land restricted. Universal Orlando is more comparable to the other Disney resorts than WDW which is really one-of-a-kind in that it has no realistic land limitations... they can literally just create several hundreds of acres of usable land by extending their preserved wetlands.

For the second Universal resort, IF you can allocate 350-375 acres to theme parks and CityWalk, and then another 13,000-15,000 hotel rooms and backstage/parking/transport hub etc., then by all means if there's still 40 acres open next to a luxury resort (like Portofino) then allocate it to a golf course.

But I'm saying that it's something you allocate or budget land for last regardless of build order.

 

[Scott W.]

I don't think there's any chance there will be 2 more dry parks, FWIW

I don’t see it either. I think 4 is too many and I think 3 could be the sweet spot.

 

[Andysol]

I was talking about allocating land. The reality is that WDW has never acted or built as if it is land restricted. Universal Orlando is more comparable to the other Disney resorts than WDW which is really one-of-a-kind in that it has no realistic land limitations... they can literally just create several hundreds of acres of usable land by extending their preserved wetlands.

For the second Universal resort, IF you can allocate 350-375 acres to theme parks and CityWalk, and then another 13,000-15,000 hotel rooms and backstage/parking/transport hub etc., then by all means if there's still 40 acres open next to a luxury resort (like Portofino) then allocate it to a golf course.

But I'm saying that it's something you allocate or budget land for last regardless of build order.

But wouldn't they have it all planned out before? It's not like UOR where they had so many ownership changes that things and visions and grand plans kept changing. For example, Aventura was certainly not planned for that tiny parcel in 1989

So if a small 9-hole is part of their "grand plan"- what would prevent them from building it alongside one of their new hotels in their initial phase? As I said, its cheap, marketable- and adds to their repertoire.

 

[Disneyhead]

From what I was told about The Golf Channel Resort is it would have it's own course that butts up against Rosen Shingle Creek's and there would be a shared course partnership.

I don't believe that the resort would be "golf" themed. But most likely "Floridian" in a Breakers/Don Cesar mash-up style. They'd play up the Shingle Creek/Everglades angle. Maybe call the resort something like "The Glades Resort".

I also think that the south property, in general, will be more "adult friendly" with things like Cirque resort, Broadway shows, Golf, etc. Which makes sense given it's proximity to the Convention Center.

 

[zg44]

But wouldn't they have it all planned out before? It's not like UOR where they had so many ownership changes that things and visions and grand plans kept changing. For example, Aventura was certainly not planned for that tiny parcel in 1989

So if a small 9-hole is part of their "grand plan"- what would prevent them from building it alongside one of their new hotels in their initial phase? As I said, its cheap, marketable- and adds to their repertoire.

Sure. I wasn't trying to say it was impossible, but that realistically it'll be the last possible allocation use for land. Once the land is allocated, then build order doesn't matter.

From what I was told about The Golf Channel Resort is it would have it's own course that butts up against Rosen Shingle Creek's and there would be a shared course partnership.

I don't believe that the resort would be "golf" themed. But most likely "Floridian" in a Breakers/Don Cesar mash-up style. They'd play up the Shingle Creek/Everglades angle. Maybe call the resort something like "The Glades Resort".

That makes a lot of sense since you're talking about that land in the parcels south of Universal Blvd.

 

[JoeCamel]

Golf courses can be very useful from a planning perspective. They can serve as water management areas and can be constructed on land that is not suitable for other uses such as remediated superfund sites.

 

[GAcoaster]

Disney can't get enough people on their golf courses at this point so they are always giving cast discounts. There are so many courses (including several world class courses used for PGA events) here in Orlando just a short hop away, it's not worth using valuable land for yet another that may not get used to its potential. Google Maps

 

[shiekra38]

Disney can't get enough people on their golf courses at this point so they are always giving cast discounts. There are so many courses (including several world class courses used for PGA events) here in Orlando just a short hop away, it's not worth using valuable land for yet another that may not get used to its potential. Google Maps

Plus Top Golf is right around the corner

 

[Yabbadabba Doh]

Disney can't get enough people on their golf courses at this point so they are always giving cast discounts.

Agreed. I spent 4 days at SSR last month and didn't see too many golfers out there, and my room overlooked one of the holes.

 

[Mad Dog]

Universal already uses off site golf courses for some of their vacation package deals. They also have a golf discount program for those staying at the Deluxe resorts. Why build your own when you can just link up with the existing courses. The courses need the business badly anyway, since their business model is in the doldrums.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Didn't Disney just close one of their courses recently? There have been so many around Florida that have either been abandoned or closed.