Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

In your opinion. I have a Vizio TV and a Vizio sound system that are nothing special and would rather watch a movie at home every day of the week. Where I know my seat is clean, I can pause it when I have to use the bathroom, and snacks and drinks don’t feel like I’m paying a loan shark to get.

The MCU wouldn't be what it is today without theaters. The Rock as a movie star wouldn't be what he is without movie theaters. And no, i'm not saying that because of money, i'm saying that because the movies are obvious big draws that are highly anticipated and best experienced with a group of friends. It would be much harder to determine if something was the same level of success on PVOD because PVOD releases generally have one weekend of hype and then no one talks about them again. Like, would Iron Man even have gotten a sequel if it was released on PVOD? Obviously we'll never know and the past is the past, but Iron Man was a much less mainstream character back then and I honestly don't know if it would've done well enough to garner the financial support for the entire MCU we have today.

Speaking more in general and less about the MCU - so much crap gets thrown on streaming that it's tough for people to know what's worth their time anymore. For every Mandalorian, Irishman or The Boys, we get about 40 crappy series in between and a bunch of B and C tier movies. Even if a high caliber movie were to drop on Netflix, it may not get a sequel due to the sheer amount of crap that gets dropped on there that it gets drowned out. The tease us with stuff that "looks" good from a trailer (like 6 Underground, for example) and then the final product is cheeks.

This is it right here. The nerds can argue aspect ratios and screen types and sound systems all day long, but at the end of the day, none of that matters. A movie isn't a social event for everyone, the theatergoing experience can bas as much a negative as a positive, and I think PVOD is going to wind up being even more normalized, and you'll see even more day-and-date home releases and shortened windows coming out of COVID.

I'm not going to argue that movie theaters aren't dying quickly right now. But almost every major film for this year has been pushed back to 2021 for theatrical release. Until someone can prove that big budget blockbusters can be just as successful on PVOD as they are in theaters, then not much will change besides a shorter window. People tend to have a negative reaction when movie gets movied from theatrical release to streaming/PVOD, almost as if it's a "demotion".

And I know you guys love to say all someone has to do is try, but guess what? That's a gamble that could be the difference between them only making a couple hundred million on PVOD to making a billion in theatres. I wouldn't risk that either.

 

[RevFreako]

The MCU wouldn't be what it is today without theaters. The Rock as a movie star wouldn't be what he is without movie theaters. And no, i'm not saying that because of money, i'm saying that because the movies are obvious big draws that are highly anticipated and best experienced with a group of friends. It would be much harder to determine if something was the same level of success on PVOD because PVOD releases generally have one weekend of hype and then no one talks about them again. Like, would Iron Man even have gotten a sequel if it was released on PVOD? Obviously we'll never know and the past is the past, but Iron Man was a much less mainstream character back then and I honestly don't know if it would've done well enough to garner the financial support for the entire MCU we have today.

Speaking more in general and less about the MCU - so much crap gets thrown on streaming that it's tough for people to know what's worth their time anymore. For every Mandalorian, Irishman or The Boys, we get about 40 crappy series in between and a bunch of B and C tier movies. Even if a high caliber movie were to drop on Netflix, it may not get a sequel due to the sheer amount of crap that gets dropped on there. The tease us with stuff that "looks" good from a trailer (like 6 Underground, for example) and then the final product is cheeks.


I'm not going to argue that movie theaters aren't dying quickly right now. But almost every major film for this year has been pushed back to 2021 for theatrical release. Until someone can prove that big budget blockbusters can be just as successful on PVOD as they are in theaters, then not much will change besides a shorter window. People tend to have a negative reaction when movie gets movied from theatrical release to streaming/PVOD, almost as if it's a "demotion".

Sturgeon's Law tells us that "ninety five percent of everything is crap." That's true of theatrical content as it is of streaming -- so i reject that argument out of hand. There's just as mich garbage in the theaters, you're just less likely to get a taste of it, because you're a discerning person who is paying by the ticket. With streaming, you can take a flyer on the first act of an Adam Sandler turd, because your cost doesn't go up any - your twenty minutes is all you lose.

As for the second paragraph, you're accurately describing how things have gone for decades. That is changing, and will continue to change. The only thing that's held that perception up is the stranglehold theater ops have had on payment splits and release windows. If theaters survive, which for the biggies is a decent sized "if," the playing field changes, likely irrevocably.

 

[Nick]

Sturgeon's Law tells us that "ninety five percent of everything is crap." That's true of theatrical content as it is of streaming -- so i reject that argument out of hand. There's just as mich garbage in the theaters, you're just less likely to get a taste of it, because you're a discerning person who is paying by the ticket. With streaming, you can take a flyer on the first act of an Adam Sandler turd, because your cost doesn't go up any - your twenty minutes is all you lose.

As for the second paragraph, you're accurately describing how things have gone for decades. That is changing, and will continue to change. The only thing that's held that perception up is the stranglehold theater ops have had on payment splits and release windows. If theaters survive, which for the biggies is a decent sized "if," the playing field changes, likely irrevocably.

The theaters as we know them will not survive. They will get bought out after they go bankrupt. It's inevitable.

 

[RevFreako]

The theaters as we know them will not survive. They will get bought out. It's inevitable.

Bought out or no - I happen to agree with you, but no reason to reheat THAT can of hash - whoever owns the theaters is going to lose the catbird seat in the negotiations we're talking about. WB/HBO and Disney have both stated that streaming/DTC will be their primary focus moving forward, and Hollywood is a place where "follow the leader" is the name of the game.

 

[Nick]

Bought out or no - I happen to agree with you, but no reason to reheat THAT can of hash - whoever owns the theaters is going to lose the catbird seat in the negotiations we're talking about. WB/HBO and Disney have both stated that streaming/DTC will be their primary focus moving forward, and Hollywood is a place where "follow the leader" is the name of the game.

Theoretically though, what if AT&T bought AMC or Regal? Disney doesn't have the money, but AT&T may be able to. In that scenario, guess what? WB keeps 100% of every movie they put into one of their studios. That extra money would also allow them to lower the amount a ticket costs (at least by a little bit) as they wouldn't be a razor thin business anymore.

Not saying it's gonna happen, or even necessarily likely, but it's very appealing in terms of potential monetary gains as again, there would be no more splitting 50/50, they'd be keeping 100%.

Lastly, everyone really seems to have misunderstood Disney's reorganization. Yes, they are putting a larger emphasis on streaming, but it includes a new distribution arm that decides where each film from each studio goes based on projections and what they think it is best suited for. MCU films will likely always be theatrical, but animation may sometimes go straight to Disney+ now is the best way to describe it. Or something like Artemis Fowl would just never get a theatrical release date and have been Disney+ from the beginning.

 

[RevFreako]

Theoretically though, what if AT&T bought AMC or Regal? Disney doesn't have the money, but AT&T may be able to. In that scenario, guess what? WB keeps 100% of every movie they put into one of their studios. That extra money would also allow them to lower the amount a ticket costs (at least by a little bit) as they wouldn't be a razor thin business anymore.

Not saying it's gonna happen, or even necessarily likely, but it's very appealing in terms of potential monetary gains as again, there would be no more splitting 50/50, they'd be keeping 100%.

Only of their own films, though. They still have to negotiate with studios who may be just as happy keeping 100 percent of a smaller pie.

 

[JungleSkip]

That extra money would also allow them to lower the amount a ticket costs

Come on we both know that will never happen

 

[Nick]

Come on we both know that will never happen

I mean, this is all theoretical and it may not be likely, but if theaters are struggling, lowering the cost of entry (by a $1 or so) could be a strategy to get more people in the door and someone like AT&T, who would own AMC, would be better financially for it.

Only of their own films, though. They still have to negotiate with studios who may be just as happy keeping 100 percent of a smaller pie.

Yes, but since they would be keeping 100% of their own money, they may be able to work out an agreement where other studios get a bit more than is currently normal to incentivize them. Again, all theoretical, and probably unrealistic. But I just don't see movie theaters going away completely. Someone will pick them up once they run out of money (and will be less stubborn about the stupid 90 day window and hopefully be forward thinking and willing to work with the studios more to get the windows down to around 25 days. I think the 17 that Universal has on their AMC deal is too short and actually incentivizes people staying home.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

If we think ticket or concessions costs ARENT going down after all of this then yeah, theaters are dead. Americans won't have the $ to spend. I 100% expect concessions or ticket sale prices to go down drastically.

 

[JungleSkip]

If we think ticket or concessions costs ARENT going down after all of this then yeah, theaters are dead. Americans won't have the $ to spend. I 100% expect concessions or ticket sale prices to go down drastically.

Yea, I'll take that bet.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Yea, I'll take that bet.

We've already seen $1 ticket deals, so... you're money is on them never opening again? I'll take the other side of that bet, they'll eventually open for big films. Whether it is the ticket price that lowers, or the concession prices that lower, one or the other will HAVE to happen in order to get people to theaters. I'll take that bet.

Loser buys the overpriced Popcorn

 

[RevFreako]

If we think ticket or concessions costs ARENT going down after all of this then yeah, theaters are dead. Americans won't have the $ to spend. I 100% expect concessions or ticket sale prices to go down drastically.

If the same system in place now survives, I would not expect ticket prices to drop substantially, as theaters don't make any money on tickets as it is now.

 

[JungleSkip]

We've already seen $1 ticket deals, so... you're money is on them never opening again? I'll take the other side of that bet, they'll eventually open for big films. Whether it is the ticket price that lowers, or the concession prices that lower, one or the other will HAVE to happen in order to get people to theaters. I'll take that bet.

Loser buys the overpriced Popcorn

$1 ticket deals are not for big, new, blockbuster movies. And theaters survive on concessions. Prices aren't gonna come down.

 

[Nick]

I could see more deals, much like how the CityWalk Cinemark has $5 Tuesdays (maybe just extend that to more weekdays?), but the problem is, right now, movie theaters are such a razor thin business that make their money almost solely through concessions. That's why movie theater concessions are so sky high - that's literally where they make almost all of their money. Sure, they make some on ticket sales, but most of that goes to paying their employees.

It's no bother to me though, I never pay more than $8 when I go to the movies anyway. I'd highly prefer that and have been able to see B&T3 for instance rather than the $20 price and just shrugging it off and waiting until it hits Netflix or wherever.

 

[awhen]

Speaking more in general and less about the MCU - so much crap gets thrown on streaming that it's tough for people to know what's worth their time anymore. For every Mandalorian, Irishman or The Boys, we get about 40 crappy series in between and a bunch of B and C tier movies. Even if a high caliber movie were to drop on Netflix, it may not get a sequel due to the sheer amount of crap that gets dropped on there that it gets drowned out. The tease us with stuff that "looks" good from a trailer (like 6 Underground, for example) and then the final product is cheeks.

There isn’t any show or movie that you like that everyone else thinks is garbage? More content is good for everyone, from the creators who get a shot at a real production, to the people employed by its creation, to the people who may end up enjoying it. The internet will make sure some of it evolves into an “event.”

The tent pole strategy is what’s threatened by theater closings, not the industry. We’ve managed to tell compelling stories without $200 million features before.

 

[RevFreako]

There isn’t any show or movie that you like that everyone else thinks is garbage? More content is good for everyone, from the creators who get a shot at a real production, to the people employed by its creation, to the people who may end up enjoying it. The internet will make sure some of it evolves into an “event.”

The tent pole strategy is what’s threatened by theater closings, not the industry. We’ve managed to tell compelling stories without $200 million features before.

This exactly. I've said before, if whatever system comes out of this supports only say 50 million stories, and you cant adjust to where you're making stories for that much, maybe you shouldn't be making stories.

 

[Nick]

There isn’t any show or movie that you like that everyone else thinks is garbage? More content is good for everyone, from the creators who get a shot at a real production, to the people employed by its creation, to the people who may end up enjoying it. The internet will make sure some of it evolves into an “event.”

The tent pole strategy is what’s threatened by theater closings, not the industry. We’ve managed to tell compelling stories without $200 million features before.

Yes, the tent pole strategy is kinda what i'm speaking to. Literally the only thing I ever go to the movie for (and I would normally go about 8-10 times per year).

I know there's good stories being told, we're living in a golden age of TV. But there's so much garbage out there that sometimes I just wish there was less tbh. Over the years, i've spent hours of my life just scrolling through Netflix trying to find something worth my time, only to just decide "nah, i'll just go to bed".

 

[JungleSkip]

Yes, the tent pole strategy is kinda what i'm speaking to. Literally the only thing I ever go to the movie for (and I would normally go about 8-10 times per year).

But these movies were generally already collapsing in on themselves before COVID. Outside of Marvel for the most part it was a tale of diminishing returns.

 

[Nick]

But these movies were generally already collapsing in on themselves before COVID. Outside of Marvel for the most part it was a tale of diminishing returns.

Last year we had about nine individual Billion dollar grossing films (and then a few other films around $800M), so not exactly sure what you're talking about there. Yes, mid-level films have been struggling in theaters for quite some time now, but tentpoles have been thriving.

 

[JungleSkip]

Last year we had about nine individual Billion dollar grossing films (and then a few other films around $800M), so not exactly sure what you're talking about there. Yes, mid-level films have been struggling in theaters for quite some time now, but tentpoles have been thriving.

Outside of Disney, they really haven't. WB has largely been struggling due to their reliance on tentpoles. Universal is successful because they *don't* focus on them anymore. Disney is the only studio that can rely on them, and even then RISE OF SKYWALKER was seen as a disappointment event though it made over a billion.

The idea that tentpoles are an unlimited well of wealth just doesn't pan out. Unless you're Disney, who has made it work for now.