Attendance Tracker

[Teebin]

I think the bigger issue is the strong dollar, since it makes trips to the US more expensive.

But didn't Brexit weaken the pound?

 

[Mad Dog]

But didn't Brexit weaken the pound?

Yes, which translates into a stronger dollar & more expensive future vacations for those in the UK going to Orlando. .

 

[Galaxy Defender]

But didn't Brexit weaken the pound?

Yes, though it has been getting stronger recently. But that is just one country. The dollar has been strong overall recently, having an impact on most travel to the US by making it more expensive to come here. That was all I was trying to get at.

 

[Teebin]

Yes, which translates into a stronger dollar & more expensive future vacations for those in the UK going to Orlando. .

Right, that is what I was getting at with the mention of Brexit... pound weaker thus dollar stronger...

 

[anihilnation]

Probably unlawful, unless it's secretly a timeshare promotion. Whether they work or not is anyone's guess.

(That may be the guy I talked to at a sketchy I Drive bar about this years ago. If so, I would advise against buying there.)

My thought as well, if you could just openly get tickets that cheap, everyone would get them. I always wonder how places like that can be in operation.

 

[Mad Dog]

I think the bigger issue is the strong dollar, since it makes trips to the US more expensive.

Still, none of this has had much impact on US tourism yet. It just adds to what Sea World called "the central Florida problem". I believe that was code for WDW having a decline problem that affects the other parks.

I am more convinced than ever that WDW will have minimum five quarters of attendance decline. Their first good chance at growth will be Q3 Apr-June 2017.

Rumor has it DAK is going to do everything it can to get Pandora open by Earth Day 2017. By no coincidence that falls in April 2017, early in Q3. I love how things make more sense when you know the motivations.

Yeah, WDW's problems filter down to both Sea World & Universal, since they both pull one day visitors from Disney. But I would think it affects Sea World more than Universal since they (Sea World) don't have the hotel/restaurant/entertainment to feed off of. Universal has increased their hotel rooms by more than two and a half times and fills them by over 90% occupancy. So they're pulling in a lot more from captive guest spending than in the past. And even though they have a ton more hotel rooms, it's gotten harder to get a room on site at Universal than it did a few years ago(2011, 2012, 2013) when they had way fewer hotel rooms. Kind of shows you the demand is there. The other problem is that SeaWorld (by their own reporting) gets 33% of their attendance from outside the U.S. The strong dollar and some weak foreign economies & political turmoil has to be affecting them very negatively.

 

[SeventyOne]

Regardless of the slowdown, domestic leisure travel is growing faster than U.S. business travel.

This is very bad. Other than two weeks in December and maybe three in March, WDW counts on convention (i.e. business) travelers.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Yeah, WDW's problems filter down to both Sea World & Universal, since they both pull one day visitors from Disney. But I would think it affects Sea World more than Universal since they (Sea World) don't have the hotel/restaurant/entertainment to feed off of. Universal has increased their hotel rooms by more than two and a half times and fills them by over 90% occupancy. So they're pulling in a lot more from captive guest spending than in the past. And even though they have a ton more hotel rooms, it's gotten harder to get a room on site at Universal than it did a few years ago(2011, 2012, 2013) when they had way fewer hotel rooms. Kind of shows you the demand is there. The other problem is that SeaWorld (by their own reporting) gets 33% of their attendance from outside the U.S. The strong dollar and some weak foreign economies & political turmoil has to be affecting them very negatively.

Sea World Orlando and Busch Gardens Tampa both have much higher attendance numbers than their sister parks. This is due to WDW. They are very vulnerable to a drop in WDW attendance.

Universal Orlando has become such a draw in its own right and increased its room capacity to the point it is in a much better position to deal with WDW's attendance decline.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Probably unlawful, unless it's secretly a timeshare promotion. Whether they work or not is anyone's guess.

(That may be the guy I talked to at a sketchy I Drive bar about this years ago. If so, I would advise against buying there.)

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is".

Looks like more travel issues for attendance. Even softness in business travel will hurt since Orlando is a major convention city. This article has so much good info I'm reposting the first part of the article here. The link at the bottom has the full article and a link to the full report.

Domestic U.S. leisure travel has hit its lowest growth level since December 2012, according to the U.S. Travel Association’s latest Travel Trends Index report.

While travel in the U.S. continues to grow, as it has for the last six years, the new slowdown should raise fears of reduced domestic consumer spending and global economic headwinds. Travel volume growth in the U.S. is down overall year-over-year.

Regardless of the slowdown, domestic leisure travel is growing faster than U.S. business travel.

“What we’re seeing here is a reversal from the post-recession economic expansion, when international inbound travel ignited the recovery,” said David Huether, U.S. Travel’s vice president for research. “International inbound travel’s return to sluggish growth patterns in July was to be expected, given the dollar’s continued dominance and Europe’s Brexit hangover. Even as it weakens slightly, domestic leisure travel will continue as the main source of strength for the travel industry.”

Domestic business travel grew for the second straight month, after a long downturn, which is good news for the overall health of the business travel sector.

“Domestic leisure travel will continue to lead the U.S. travel market, though a dip in vacation intentions and slower growth in leisure-related, forward-looking travel searches signal some potential softening through late 2016,” reads the detailed portion of the report {embedded below]. “While domestic business travel growth has been in positive territory for the past two months, confidence in further growth remains shaky, and already-slowing growth in forward-looking business travel searches indicates further weakness ahead.”

International inbound travel is expected to lag behind domestic travel for the remainder of the year, as well, and stay stagnant until the end of the year.

U.S. Travel’s previous report had noted an uptick in international inbound travel in June, but the latest update dashes hope of a continued trend.

“International inbound travel’s return to sluggish growth patterns in July indicates that the June uptick was more of a rebound from a decline this time last year. Visits from Canada continue to decrease, and more tempered growth in overseas travel will keep the lid on inbound travel in the second half of 2016,” said Adam Sachs, head of Oxford Economics’ Tourism Economics division, the research group that prepares the report. “Domestic leisure travel growth, though also somewhat diminished, remains supported by a strong labor market and rising wages, while still-weak business travel growth re ects continued uncertainty and easing in exports and private investment.”

U.S. Domestic Leisure Travel Sees Lowest Growth Rate Since 2012 – Skift

I've been told straight up this fall is record breaking for Universal Orlando, and it's all based on the huge success of HHN, especially last year.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

I've been told straight up this fall is record breaking for Universal Orlando, and it's all based on the huge success of HHN, especially last year.

That ought to make WDW green with envy.

I think this will be the year Universal shows how well it stands on its own against the mouse.

 

[Mad Dog]

I think 2017 will be the year Universal goes head to head with the Mouse for Christmas Season. New Parades, HP themed events & night shows, new Studio's Lagoon Night Show etc. No reason for Universal to continue letting Disney dominate Christmas Season. They can put the same power performance together that they used to create their Sept./Oct. success.....One step at a time.

 

[Mad Dog]

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is".



I've been told straight up this fall is record breaking for Universal Orlando, and it's all based on the huge success of HHN, especially last year.

Easy to believe with how tough it is to get a hotel room, in what "used to be" the slow tourist season. Slow no more.

 

[SeventyOne]

I think 2017 will be the year Universal goes head to head with the Mouse for Christmas Season. New Parades, HP themed events & night shows, new Studio's Lagoon Night Show etc. No reason for Universal to continue letting Disney dominate Christmas Season. They can put the same power performance together that they used to create their Sept./Oct. success.....One step at a time.

Considering all WDW seems to have on deck is MVMCP and their Word Showcase offerings--with a harder than ever to do with standby Candlelight now that lunch options are tied to it--2016 might even do the job.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Considering all WDW seems to have on deck is MVMCP and their Word Showcase offerings--with a harder than ever to do with standby Candlelight now that lunch options are tied to it--2016 might even do the job.

This will be the first year without the Osborne light show.

 

[SeventyOne]

I've been told straight up this fall is record breaking for Universal Orlando, and it's all based on the huge success of HHN, especially last year.

The most logical response would be to tell Michael Roddy* to throw together a Villains Somewhat Scary Halloween Party in DHS, plans for which have been sitting around, what, a decade? Instantly blow up social media, rake in lifestyler and tween money, pad up the park's attendance numbers in a Fall that will need it.

But the culture of fear permeates WDW. Same mentality that let's a snack bar manager sell out of Doritos halfway through the day but not order more because they might not sell. Fear of loss > hope for potential profit.

* (For those who don't know, essentially the godfather of modern HHN who now runs entertainment at DHS.)

 

[SeventyOne]

This will be the first year without the Osborne light show.

And so far AP mailers indicate nothing even being touted as taking its place.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

The most logical response would be to tell Michael Roddy* to throw together a Villains Somewhat Scary Halloween Party in DHS, plans for which have been sitting around, what, a decade? Instantly blow up social media, rake in lifestyler and tween money, pad up the park's attendance numbers in a Fall that will need it.

But the culture of fear permeates WDW. Same mentality that let's a snack bar manager sell out of Doritos halfway through the day but not order more because they might not sell. Fear of loss > hope for potential profit.

* (For those who don't know, essentially the godfather of modern HHN who now runs entertainment at DHS.)

That sounds like a one or two night boost from AP holder and bloggers, not a how many nights blow out that HHN is.

 

[JoeCamel]

That sounds like a one or two night boost from AP holder and bloggers, not a how many nights blow out that HHN is.

650K is almost 1/12 the yearly attendance if they are doing 10M+ at the studios and it does not count the day guests. I would say the paltry jump they can get out of a Villain's event is a drop in the bucket. They already brought back the Villains Dance Party for this year.

 

[Mad Dog]

I think they're running out of tricks to keep DHS going. I bet the Star Wars Experience/ Fireworks stuff slows down until they get TSL open.

 

[quinnmac000]

The attendance gain at Universal while Disney declines may be the push needed to get the groundbreaking at the new plot faster so yay. I'm happy about this news.