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Black Widow

Nick

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Sep 22, 2011
24,884
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The formula seems to be kind of all over, as Shang-Chi will not be on Premier Access and is sticking to a 45 day theatrical run. Jungle Cruise will probably be the film that determines how they treat the Premier Access system moving forward. If it does well, I don't see why they shouldn't offer it as an option for bigger movies.

That being said, I do think Feige has a little more influence within the company than people give him credit for.
Feige has a very large amount of influence for sure. Feige and D'Esposito basically created the MCU from nothing but the comics that were there for them, but even then, they had to make good films. Disney knows they can't lose him, but if they can make MORE money with PA than they otherwise would have during this time, then that's my only point.

Had that $60M gone to theaters instead of Disney+, Disney only keeps about half of it since it's split between domestic and international. Domestically they have a stranglehold on the theaters, but internationally they don't get the same high cut. So if they are all of a sudden turning $30M into $60M or in the case of bigger movies (lets say they do PA for Strange 2). Let's pretend the movie makes close to $150M opening weekend at the box office and they pull close to $100M globally from PA. The PA number is a 100% net of that money instead of splitting it at a 50% cut and theatrical is still strong. And let's also not underestimate what this does to not only keep people subscribed to Disney+, but i'd love to see the numbers on people who both paid a subscription fee AND the $30 was like.

I don't think any major decisions about PA will solely be made from Jungle Cruise, but more from Black Widow since it's an MCU film. However, if Jungle Cruise does do exceedingly well on PA (which I think is a long shot), I think there's no way they don't continue with PA model on all big blockbusters going forward.
 

Brian G.

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Jan 21, 2008
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Saw it last week so better late than never review:

It was mostly fine. Pugh and Harbour definitely stole the show, and I look forward to seeing more from Pugh. The movie came out a little too late to get really invested since we know what happens with Natasha's story. The Marvel "formula" is a bit more evident in this film, too. Didn't mind the Taskmaster twist, but I hated how underutilized the villain was. It's such a cool concept and they didn't milk it to its potential.

Another big issue was how fantastical some of the action scenes became. I know with a Marvel film I have to suspend belief, but a majority of these characters, specifically Natasha, are not superhuman or enhanced - so some of the bombastic action felt a little much. It needed to be dialed back just a bit on that front.
 

Nick

Staff member
Moderator
Sep 22, 2011
24,884
Orlando
Saw it last week so better late than never review:

It was mostly fine. Pugh and Harbour definitely stole the show, and I look forward to seeing more from Pugh. The movie came out a little too late to get really invested since we know what happens with Natasha's story. The Marvel "formula" is a bit more evident in this film, too. Didn't mind the Taskmaster twist, but I hated how underutilized the villain was. It's such a cool concept and they didn't milk it to its potential.

Another big issue was how fantastical some of the action scenes became. I know with a Marvel film I have to suspend belief, but a majority of these characters, specifically Natasha, are not superhuman or enhanced - so some of the bombastic action felt a little much. It needed to be dialed back just a bit on that front.
Some of those action sequences looked like they were straight out of a F&F movie. My take is that since the stakes were so low on the movie as it was since we already know how her story ends, they wanted to add some stakes with the other characters by turning the dial up to 100 when it came to big, stupid, and simply unbelievable stunt scenes.
 

Nick

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Moderator
Sep 22, 2011
24,884
Orlando
The agenda Deadline has in favor of the theaters and against PVOD is insane. I don't see this as a movie that was going to do all that well long-term with or without Premiere Access. The thing also is, from a $70M opening, F9 dropped 70% and everyone was fine with that simply because it was a "theatrical exclusive" as if that means anything. Black Widow opened to $80M and had less of a drop at 67%, but because it's day and date, it's being criticized.

NATO can yell and scream all they want, but the #1 and #2 in theaters were playing day and date and I think they way overestimated how much anyone cared to see a Black Widow movie after... well, you know. I was only able to get one person from my friend group (who i've pretty much gone to see every Marvel movie with since 2015) interested enough to even care about the movie when I would mention it.

It was just not a movie that had people all that excited tbh, especially with Loki going on on Disney+. I almost didn't go see the movie - not because the movie was playing on Disney+, but because the final episodes of Loki were airing very close to the movie. If NATO and Deadline want to blame Disney+, I think you can with Loki running during the movies first two weeks, but taking away Premier Access only would've added a few million to maybe squeak out a weekend win, so I think the MCU shows are going to undercut the movies much more longterm.
 
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Jerroddragon

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Jun 27, 2017
2,599
Saw it last week so better late than never review:

It was mostly fine. Pugh and Harbour definitely stole the show, and I look forward to seeing more from Pugh. The movie came out a little too late to get really invested since we know what happens with Natasha's story. The Marvel "formula" is a bit more evident in this film, too. Didn't mind the Taskmaster twist, but I hated how underutilized the villain was. It's such a cool concept and they didn't milk it to its potential.

Another big issue was how fantastical some of the action scenes became. I know with a Marvel film I have to suspend belief, but a majority of these characters, specifically Natasha, are not superhuman or enhanced - so some of the bombastic action felt a little much. It needed to be dialed back just a bit on that front.
From what I'm hearing like BP and even Thor 3, the ending action scenes are pre done by Marvel. Now this doesn't mean actors can't add something..Loki Spinning his blades and catching them is all the actor and not in the script but in this case it was all CGI crap done as the movie was being filmed. Heard Ironman3 had the same thing too which is why it feels different from the rest of the film
 
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HalfGlass

Veteran Member
Apr 21, 2013
1,057
One thing that could account for low numbers too is people who usually see Marvel movies twice. When you get the Premiere Access on D+, you have access to the film on the platform for repeated viewings. So for example, I usually see a Marvel film 2-3 times in the theater, I would go once or twice with friends, maybe once with my Dad. Now I could just say “oh you haven’t seen it yet? Come on over to my place” or go to their house and login on my app. All of the sudden that could have been 12-14 tickets they lose because of PVOD for $30.
 

Nick

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Moderator
Sep 22, 2011
24,884
Orlando
One thing that could account for low numbers too is people who usually see Marvel movies twice. When you get the Premiere Access on D+, you have access to the film on the platform for repeated viewings. So for example, I usually see a Marvel film 2-3 times in the theater, I would go once or twice with friends, maybe once with my Dad. Now I could just say “oh you haven’t seen it yet? Come on over to my place” or go to their house and login on my app. All of the sudden that could have been 12-14 tickets they lose because of PVOD for $30.
That's true, which is why i've always been skeptical on if day and date could work. You're literally just giving people pristine copies of the movie to watch as many times as they want (HBO Max and Disney+ is at least). I mostly think this was a pandemic-era thing and we'll see it fade away, but who knows. I do think it's telling that Disney didn't brag about their Premiere Access numbers again this week and Black Widow actually isn't even in the top 25 on Disney+'s trending. You know what is though? Loki, WandaVision, and Falcon and the Winter Soldier.

And when it comes down to it, much like Ant-Man and the Wasp, this isn't a movie I would have seen again anyway and I think that, more than people being able to rewatch BW or share it with others, the bigger thing hurting Black Widow is Disney+ itself as I said. BW had a big debut weekend, Disney bragged, and then three days after that weekend it was the Loki finale and just like that, everyone has already moved on from Black Widow. I really wonder if Disney is going to be able to figure out how to make the MCU work both theatrically and on Disney+ because it's way more accessible and popular on a weekly basis on Disney+ right now.

But really, at the end of the day, we can try and look for things here and there on why Black Widow may not be doing as well as it was hoped to, but I mean, I personally think it's as simple as Black Widow is the Solo: A Star Wars Story of the MCU. No one was asking for it and maybe if we went 2+ years without MCU content it would've had more pent up demand, but it didn't even have that going for it because of the MCU series. With WV, FatWS, and Loki all having aired, there was no pent up demand, and no one cared about this movie, so why is the media acting shocked it had a bad second weekend?

Think about it, a female-led movie like this doesn't open to $80M (or anywhere close) if the MCU name isn't attached. Comparing it to Atomic Blonde (which had a 79% RT score compared to BW's 81%), Atomic Blonde had Charlize Theron in the leading role of an spy/action thriller and only opened to $18.3M. It was an extremely fun movie... that few people saw. I'm not saying women can't star in action movies, far from it. What i'm saying is audiences don't generally seem to flock to these types of movies. They did for the opening weekend of Black Widow because those were the hardcore MCU fans wanting to see an MCU movie. I think the huge dropoff from the opening Friday to Saturday should have been an indication to all that this movie was going to have a large fall. Everyone who wanted to see it saw it quickly and then there was very few people left for a second weekend because they are either like me and don't care to see it again, or they are watching it some other way.
 
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HalfGlass

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Apr 21, 2013
1,057
BW had a big debut weekend, Disney bragged, and then three days after that weekend it was the Loki finale and just like that, everyone has already moved on from Black Widow. I really wonder if Disney is going to be able to figure out how to make the MCU work both theatrically and on Disney+ because it's way more accessible and popular on a weekly basis on Disney+ right now.
This is a great point and it wouldn’t surprise me if non-animated Marvel shows try to time their releases around the film slates, giving a couple weeks breathing room for them to perform.
 
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Nick

Staff member
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Sep 22, 2011
24,884
Orlando
This is a great point and it wouldn’t surprise me if non-animated Marvel shows try to time their releases around the film slates, giving a couple weeks breathing room for them to perform.
Based on What If?... won't end until October 13th, so unless they start and finish a Hawkeye or something while What If is still going on (which I feel is probably unlikely), that would mean that the earliest Hawkeye/Ms.Marvel could start is October 20th, a mere 16 days before The Eternals hits theaters. Which presents another problem - Does Disney+ play nice and hold off on new content until after the first two weekends of The Eternals? If so, that would mean it would start November 17th and end on December 29th. Perfect timing for the end of the year. Except The Book of Boba Fett is supposed to come out in December as well. I guess both an MCU and Star Wars show will have to start airing simultaneously when you think of how many are on the table. I'm also realizing both Ms. Marvel and Hawkeye won't air this year, only one will and one will get pushed off to around the WandaVision slot probably.

But no matter when they air these shows, they WILL run into movies, unless they release the shows as binge shows. Because a Hawkeye or whatever would still run into Spiderman 3 in December. And if you just think about the sheer amount of shows filming or greenlit or already in the can, they have far too much for them to really be able to schedule around the movies if they are going to do 4 movies per year.
 

Jerroddragon

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Jun 27, 2017
2,599
One thing that could account for low numbers too is people who usually see Marvel movies twice. When you get the Premiere Access on D+, you have access to the film on the platform for repeated viewings. So for example, I usually see a Marvel film 2-3 times in the theater, I would go once or twice with friends, maybe once with my Dad. Now I could just say “oh you haven’t seen it yet? Come on over to my place” or go to their house and login on my app. All of the sudden that could have been 12-14 tickets they lose because of PVOD for $30.
Maybe

But I think the answer really is more...people who cared saw it. Its easy to pirate because its day one on demand as well and think the film is the least exciting thing from the MCU in years

Doesn't mean you can't like it but when the side characters outshine the main....the film may have some issues. Most reviews from "hardcore" fans who do reviews like the side people some of the fights are cool but the ending really makes the film hard to want to see a second time...its boring and they don't do anything interesting. Plus the biggest parts of this film come from the end teaser that can be found online the rest who cares the other characters will show up in much more interesting porjects and have much more to do as well. So think most fans saw it and everyone else saw it at a friends or from a website or youtube clips (which show the best parts of the film anyway)
 

Nick

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Sep 22, 2011
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Dan Murrell goes into what may have went wrong and imo, he did it with the most level head i've seen among pretty much everyone in the mediasphere (he actually acknowledges that we're still in a pandemic!).
 

Nick

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Sep 22, 2011
24,884
Orlando
Black Widow took in 11.6M in it's third weekend for a third place finish. Space Jam 2 had a near 70% drop for $9.56M, so with that, I think that's just more proof that anyone who wants to go to the theater right now is doing it within the movies first week more or less.

And for everyone calling for the death of cinemas/Marvel because of Premiere Access, there's this...
Black Widow finished in third place in its third weekend of release with an estimated $11.6M, a 55% drop from last weekend. The Disney/Marvel release has banked $154.8M so far, putting it just 6% behind the pace of 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp, which had taken in $165M by the end of its third weekend. The latter film finished its domestic run with $216.65M. Black Widow is now the fastest pandemic-era film to top $150M.
Ant-Man & the Wasp has been the movie i've been comparing this too and honestly, this movie has performed better than Ant-Man 2 to this point when you add in Premiere Access, which has brought in at the very least $30M domestic (which means the combined total is around $185M domestic for Black Widow, but day/date can never work, right?).

 

rageofthegods

Veteran Member
Sep 10, 2017
2,057
And for everyone calling for the death of cinemas/Marvel because of Premiere Access, there's this...


Ant-Man & the Wasp has been the movie i've been comparing this too and honestly, this movie has performed better than Ant-Man 2 to this point when you add in Premiere Access, which has brought in at the very least $30M domestic (which means the combined total is around $185M domestic for Black Widow, but day/date can never work, right?).

Black Widow opened higher than AMATW, so if it's behind Ant Man now that's not a good sign.

The drop this weekend wasn't as bad as I was expecting, but there is no universe where Black Widow is doing well, drop-wise.
 

Nick

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Sep 22, 2011
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Black Widow opened higher than AMATW, so if Ant Man is ahead of it now that means Black Widow is falling behind.

The drop this weekend wasn't as bad as I was expecting, but there is no universe where Black Widow is doing well, drop-wise.
It only opened $4.2M higher than AM&tW and as I said, AM&tW really isn't ahead of it when you add in simply the $30M domestic from Premiere Access (we obviously don't know specific numbers since Disney hasn't updated from that first week, but that's what it is at the very least).

Adding in PA domestic numbers, it's at the very least $20M ahead of AM&tW and is at roughly $185M compared to the $165M that AM&tW was at at this point in its run. The movie also has hopes to add quite a bit to it's international total once it opens in China, where it is now approved to play, but is without a release date.
 

Nick

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Sep 22, 2011
24,884
Orlando
Scarlett suing as this was supposed to be exclusive to theaters per contract. I'm surprised that Disney let it get to this point of her filing suit instead of just paying her the bonus she would have received had the film hit it's targets for bonuses.
 

MrBlonde

Member
Aug 7, 2018
556
Scarlett suing as this was supposed to be exclusive to theaters per contract.
The new tower of terror will now be her fighting through an entire building full of lawyers.

I'm very surprised this is happening publicly. you figured they would've done this behind closed doors to keep her happy.
 

Nick

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Sep 22, 2011
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The new tower of terror will now be her fighting through an entire building full of lawyers.

I'm very surprised this is happening publicly. you figured they would've done this behind closed doors to keep her happy.
As am I. Like I added in when I edited, they should've done what WB did with Wonder Woman 1984 on HBO Max - WB worked with Gal Gadot and Patty Jenkins to give them the bonuses they would've got otherwise. Disney should've done the same here.

Disney better look out for Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt.
 

Jerroddragon

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Jun 27, 2017
2,599
Insane

She worked with them for ten years and made them buckets of money. They should have gave her what she wanted, while one one hand streaming was what made the film make what it normally would have (pre pandemic) its also like who the hell cares how you make the money. Im sure disney makes more profits per streaming than in theaters so weird Disney is trying to nickel and dime this but its Disney.

Look up the BS with Disney and Old Star Wars Novels, they are refusing to pay older authors even as they sell their books