Black Widow

[RevFreako]

I know Disney still is in charge which is why Black Widow went to VOD, but there were articles swirling saying Feige was pleading with them to make it theatrical only for a while behind the scenes. Eventually they had no choice but to do simul-release but I think they will be concerned about keeping him happy to some extent.

I don't think they'll be that concerned.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

If any other Marvel Studios film might be put to Premier Access for pandemic terms; I would have to think Shang-Chi would be the one up there.

I don't see a single iota of effort being made to make Eternals a film that launches simultaneously in theaters and on D+. I see that being award primed, especially with the ensemble both in-front and behind the camera's.

___

...meanwhile, to give my thoughts on BW: I would consider it lower than Captain Marvel and some of the Phase 2 dull films; as it's a bit of an "average" film for me. Florence Pugh and David Harbour knock it out of the ballpark, and I want more of them in the MCU pronto.

 

[Nick]

So while I love talking about Box Office, I want to talk about the actual movie as I have yet to weigh in there and have yet to give my thoughts. I will give a non spoiler review and then I'll give some brief spoiler thoughts in a spoiler tag.

Overall, the movie was fine. The MCU could've lived without this movie easily if we were stopping with The Infinity Saga, but that's why Black Widow is part of phase 4. I would rank this movie on the level of Ant-Man and the Wasp, which is about mid-to-lower tier MCU as far as my rankings go. If you are on the fence about going, I will say Florence Pugh and Scar Jo are great together and it's a fun enough movie about family.

I expect that this will be my least favorite MCU movie of the year and is probably one I won't come back to often. Although with a rumored sequel, I may sooner than later. Speaking of a rumored sequel, let's talk about one of the only spoiler-y things I think is worth talking about with this film - the post credits scene:

The sister bond between Natasha and Yelena I thought was very well established and I loved the family stuff in this movie. I loved the way Pugh portrayed Yelena and really looked up to Natasha. I thought it fitting that the post-credits scene started with Yelena at Natasha's gravestone present day and I found that to be a far nicer tribute to her than that crappy ass funeral she had in Endgame.

It was nice seeing Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Valentina again after seeing her in Falcon and Winter Soldier. They very clearly are setting up either a Black Widow 2 with Yelena going after Clint (and possibly Kate Bishop?) or are setting up that plot line for another movie or TV series. Maybe we see Yelena in Hawkeye? I guess we'll see. But I can definitely see a Black Widow sequel with Yelena as the lead Black Widow. With Valentina showing up and her sort of being a grey zone character (and they seemed to have had contact before), I wonder if Yelena will join up with John Walker/US Agent and Valentina's crew that she seems to be building.

I know Disney still is in charge which is why Black Widow went to VOD, but there were articles swirling saying Feige was pleading with them to make it theatrical only for a while behind the scenes. Eventually they had no choice but to do simul-release but I think they will be concerned about keeping him happy to some extent.

He's going to have to learn to deal with it if the C-Level's want to continue doing Premiere Access, just like Pixar has had to deal with their movies going to the service included with subscription over the past year.

If any other Marvel Studios film might be put to Premier Access for pandemic terms; I would have to think Shang-Chi would be the one up there.

I don't see a single iota of effort being made to make Eternals a film that launches simultaneously in theaters and on D+. I see that being award primed, especially with the ensemble both in-front and behind the camera's.

___

...meanwhile, to give my thoughts on BW: I would consider it lower than Captain Marvel and some of the Phase 2 dull films; as it's a bit of an "average" film for me. Florence Pugh and David Harbour knock it out of the ballpark, and I want more of them in the MCU pronto.

Eh, I wouldn't consider it lower than Captain Marvel, but to each their own. I think this film has much more redeeming qualities to it and likable characters overall. It just sort of wasn't a necessary film beyond launching Yelena and Red Guardian.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Speaking of a rumored sequel, let's talk about one of the only spoiler-y things I think is worth talking about with this film - the post credits scene:

The sister bond between Natasha and Yelena I thought was very well established and I loved the family stuff in this movie. I loved the way Pugh portrayed Yelena and really looked up to Natasha. I thought it fitting that the post-credits scene started with Yelena at Natasha's gravestone present day and I found that to be a far nicer tribute to her than that crappy ass funeral she had in Endgame.

It was nice seeing Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Valentina again after seeing her in Falcon and Winter Soldier. They very clearly are setting up either a Black Widow 2 with Yelena going after Clint (and possibly Kate Bishop?) or are setting up that plot line for another movie or TV series. Maybe we see Yelena in Hawkeye? I guess we'll see. But I can definitely see a Black Widow sequel with Yelena as the lead Black Widow. With Valentina showing up and her sort of being a grey zone character (and they seemed to have had contact before), I wonder if Yelena will join up with John Walker/US Agent and Valentina's crew that she seems to be building.

If anything--I recall conceptual artwork leaks a few months back when things started coming out for Ms. Marvel and Doctor Strange in The Multiverse of Madness, of artwork for Hawkeye depicting Yelena in a new form of combat outfit. While I don't think she'd be donning the alias of Black Widow, I can very much see Yelena contrasting from her sister, and being a proper antagonistic force. Especially if Hawkeye revolves around Clint fleeing from Yelena and the former Red Room assassins/Taskmaster; then to find Kate Bishop somehow in this.

With Yelena's ties in the comics being more interlinked with HYDRA (and AIM depending on the circumstances); it makes sense if Valentina is recruiting her and a potential assassin clan to form into a rendition of the "Dark Avengers" with US Agent.

 

[Nick]

If anything--I recall conceptual artwork leaks a few months back when things started coming out for Ms. Marvel and Doctor Strange in The Multiverse of Madness, of artwork for Hawkeye depicting Yelena in a new form of combat outfit. While I don't think she'd be donning the alias of Black Widow, I can very much see Yelena contrasting from her sister, and being a proper antagonistic force. Especially if Hawkeye revolves around Clint fleeing from Yelena and the former Red Room assassins/Taskmaster; then to find Kate Bishop somehow in this.

With Yelena's ties in the comics being more interlinked with HYDRA (and AIM depending on the circumstances); it makes sense if Valentina is recruiting her and a potential assassin clan to form into a rendition of the "Dark Avengers" with US Agent.

Just want to say we for sure need more Red Guardian - We saw lots of set photos for Hawkeye and Florence Pugh was never seen, but as far back as December 3rd she was announced to be a part of the cast, so they could easily take Yelena directly into Hawkeye. With Valentina likely to be in the show as well, I wonder if we'll get an appearance from US Agent in the show or any of her other disciples. I wouldn't be surprised if she took on the mantle of Black Widow though, even though she clearly is going in a darker direction.

That would also explain the relative lack of CGI that it seems like Hawkeye will need as it's more of an assassin show + the cast is going to be expensive as all hell - Renner, Steinfeld, Farmiga, Pugh, etc.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

We saw lots of set photos for Hawkeye and Florence Pugh was never seen, but as far back as December 3rd she was announced to be a part of the cast, so they could easily take Yelena directly into Hawkeye. With Valentina likely to be in the show as well, I wonder if we'll get an appearance from US Agent in the show or any of her other disciples.

That would also explain the relative lack of CGI that it seems like Hawkeye will need as it's more of an assassin show + the cast is going to be expensive as all hell - Renner, Steinfeld, Farmiga, Pugh, etc.

(I can probably say this is better suited for the Hawkeye thread but) Hawkeye feels like it's going to be more like a John Wick of the MCU--a series that may focus much more on the internal struggles of death, and how how that affects people. And more importantly with Renner and Florence's characters of Clint and Yelena tackling Natasha's death; while Kate deals with the potential of her reacting to a potential death of Vera Faminga's character, Kate's mother (I do think Vera isn't going to be in the show as much as people would think). Along with--the potential dynamic of how revenge is handled by the person.

That's my gist, but I think that'd be a better discussion for a better thread.

 

[Jerroddragon]

I mean those VOD numbers are pretty great right? Combined with what they made in theaters I'm sure Disney is pretty happy with this film

 

[Nick]

I mean those VOD numbers are pretty great right? Combined with what they made in theaters I'm sure Disney is pretty happy with this film

Disney didn't report the Premiere Access numbers because they were ashamed of them lol. This is the first time they've ever reported Premiere Access numbers and $60M is very strong imo for a film that almost hit $100M both domestically and internationally in theaters.

 

[rageofthegods]

Also notable that the opening weekend was considered a disappointment. Friday numbers were in and the trades were projecting a 90m opening weekend; instead it dropped so hard it might go below 80m. Dropping estimates by 10m after Friday numbers are in is just something that never shouldn't ever happen. I genuinely think the poor opening trajectory forced Disney's hand and made them release numbers to take back control of the narrative.

 

[Nick]

Also notable that the opening weekend was considered a disappointment. Friday numbers were in and the trades were projecting a 90m opening weekend; instead it dropped so hard it might go below 80m. Dropping estimates by 10m after Friday numbers are in is just something that never shouldn't happen. I genuinely think the poor opening trajectory forced Disney's hand and made them release numbers to take back control of the narrative.

I mean, yeah, some did think it might go over $100M this weekend, but around $80M was pretty much the prediction anyway out of the gates. The Friday numbers are inflated because of the Thursday night previews, which are the diehards that want to be first.

However, you're right in a sense that by reporting the D+ numbers, it keeps anyone from really saying it was a disappointment because there's actual numbers from Disney from the Premiere Access that look impressive and dominate a story. I feel like I haven't seen any stories though that are calling it a disappointment though.

 

[rageofthegods]

I mean, yeah, some did think it might go over $100M this weekend, but around $80M was pretty much the prediction anyway out of the gates. The Friday numbers are inflated because of the Thursday night previews, which are the diehards that want to be first.

Nah, folks who do projections factor that stuff in. For reference, Black Widow's Saturday drop (42% from Thu+Fri, 11% from pure Friday) was the highest ever for an MCU movie. It beat out the runner up, Age of Ultron, by eight percentage points. Even the Saturday drop for Batman V Superman was "just" 38%.

Obviously, there's a much different context here: the pandemic and recovery is a factor, as is PA and release date and good-not-great WoM. It's probably not doing poorly overall, but it is gonna be an interesting one to watch and maybe a future test case for streaming day-and-date performances.

 

[Nick]

Nah, folks who do projections factor that stuff in. For reference, Black Widow's Saturday drop (42% from Thu+Fri, 11% from pure Friday) was the highest ever for an MCU movie. It beat out the runner up, Age of Ultron, by eight percentage points. Even the Saturday drop for Batman V Superman was "just" 38%.

Obviously, the pandemic and recovery is a factor, as is PA and release date and good-not-great WoM. I'm not suggesting it'll do poorly, but it is gonna be an interesting one to watch and maybe a future test case for streaming day-and-date performances.

Day and Date did play a factor as Disney did tout in their press release that it was highest domestic opening weekend for an MCU film after only Black Panther and Captain Marvel (although I don't really consider this an origin story unless we're talking about Yelena). They said that the Domestic take did pass $100M combined, so that means at least $20M-$25M of the $60M+ was domestic-earned.

Obviously that's them fudging the numbers a bit since they are combining theatrical and Disney+, but hey, money is money the way I see it.

 

[rageofthegods]

Day and Date did play a factor as Disney did tout in their press release that it was highest domestic opening weekend for an MCU film after only Black Panther and Captain Marvel (although I don't really consider this an origin story unless we're talking about Yelena). They said that the Domestic take did pass $100M combined, so that means at least $20M-$25M of the $60M+ was domestic-earned.

Obviously that's them fudging the numbers a bit since they are combining theatrical and Disney+, but hey, money is money the way I see it.

Agreed with the bolded part! I just hope they keep up the transparency in the future.

 

[Nick]

Agreed with the bolded part! I just hope they keep up the transparency in the future.

Well, I guess we'll see if they report next week or if they say anything about Jungle Cruise.

 

[Nick]

So I was thinking a bit more about how things could play out/a theory based loosely on the comics...

I think it's very possible, especially knowing that Feige likes to blend certain characters backstories together sometimes to create different versions of the character, that instead of taking the Black Widow mantle, we'll see Yelena become the Iron Maiden. In the comics, Melina was the Iron Maiden and was an adversary to the Black Widow. She also had an association with the Thunderbolts in the comics.

So if Yelena were to take on most of that back story from Melina, then it would make sense why she was hanging around with Val and tbh, I wouldn't be completely surprised if they find a way to bring Natasha back and then they have the two sisters on opposite sides. I think that could be a fairly logical theory on where things are headed, but we'll see.

 

[HalfGlass]

Kevin Feige Says Marvel Makes Movies Specifically for Packed Theaters - IGN

Feige doubling down on the theatrical experience.

 

[Nick]

Kevin Feige Says Marvel Makes Movies Specifically for Packed Theaters - IGN

Feige doubling down on the theatrical experience.

He can say whatever he wants to the press, again, if the C-level execs at Disney decide that Day and Date is the best strategy for Marvel movies, then that's what will happen, because they run the company, not Feige.

I think doing day and date is actually perfectly fine for Marvel. Think about it - if a throwaway prequel like Black Widow was able to do $80M domestic theatrical and $60M on Disney+ globally, then what's the loss? Did we really expect Black Widow to open much more than $80M had this gotten to open pre-pandemic? Really? This movie was always going to open around the same as Ant-Man and The Wasp/Doctor Strange, which were right around this range. Then add on top of that they were able to collect an extra $60M on Disney+, of which at least $20M of that was Domestic (SambaTV analytics claims $30M).

I just don't see how they look at this and see how this is pretty much the low point for what they will earn theatrically and on Disney+ with MCU movies. It also gives people a choice. If you want to go to a theater, which many do, then you still can have that experience. But if you want to just watch the movie at home, then guess what? You can! And if you have basically 3 people or more, you're saving money, and that's not counting money spent on gas, food, drinks, etc that you may spend while going out. $30 really actually doesn't look bad to a lot of people when you think of it like that.

 

[Jamesh22]

He can say whatever he wants to the press, again, if the C-level execs at Disney decide that Day and Date is the best strategy for Marvel movies, then that's what will happen, because they run the company, not Feige.

I think doing day and date is actually perfectly fine for Marvel. Think about it - if a throwaway prequel like Black Widow was able to do $80M domestic theatrical and $60M on Disney+ globally, then what's the loss? Did we really expect Black Widow to open much more than $80M had this gotten to open pre-pandemic? Really? This movie was always going to open around the same as Ant-Man and The Wasp/Doctor Strange, which were right around this range. Then add on top of that they were able to collect an extra $60M on Disney+, of which at least $20M of that was Domestic (SambaTV analytics claims $30M).

I just don't see how they look at this and see how this is pretty much the low point for what they will earn theatrically and on Disney+ with MCU movies. It also gives people a choice. If you want to go to a theater, which many do, then you still can have that experience. But if you want to just watch the movie at home, then guess what? You can! And if you have basically 3 people or more, you're saving money, and that's not counting money spent on gas, food, drinks, etc that you may spend while going out. $30 really actually doesn't look bad to a lot of people when you think of it like that.

Have to agree... for now
I wonder how it will affect total box office / legs though? Right now it looks good, but if movies that used to take $800m+ start topping out at $400-$500 I can see some panicked backtracking.

 

[Nick]

Have to agree... for now
I wonder how it will affect total box office / legs though? Right now it looks good, but if movies that used to take $800m+ start topping out at $400-$500 I can see some panicked backtracking.

Black Widow is not a movie that really was ever going to make $800M though imo. I was comparing it to Strange and Ant-Man 2, which were $500M/$600M takes. Part of Black Widow's problem right now in terms of lack of international money is that it currently does not have a Chinese opening date and there are still many places in Europe where there are heavy restrictions on movie theaters, so Premiere Access worked well internationally.

I agree that we need to wait and see long-term how this goes, but I see Disney trying out Premiere Access on both Shang-Chi at the least and I believe Eternals has ambitions of being an awards play, but as long as it's playing in theaters in New York and LA that's all that matters as far as qualifying for awards play, right (and The Eternals will be playing much wider than that). I know the rules were a bit different last year, but Nomadland played on Hulu and theatrically if you had a theater open near you, so this wouldn't even be different for Chloe Zhao.

I think Disney is going to want a solid enough group to take data from and be able to say "these films work on PA but these kind don't" or "Premiere Access was a fun experiment, but it's not worth it longterm". They need a larger sample size than just five movie, imo.

 

[deadbydawn]

He can say whatever he wants to the press, again, if the C-level execs at Disney decide that Day and Date is the best strategy for Marvel movies, then that's what will happen, because they run the company, not Feige.

I think doing day and date is actually perfectly fine for Marvel. Think about it - if a throwaway prequel like Black Widow was able to do $80M domestic theatrical and $60M on Disney+ globally, then what's the loss? Did we really expect Black Widow to open much more than $80M had this gotten to open pre-pandemic? Really? This movie was always going to open around the same as Ant-Man and The Wasp/Doctor Strange, which were right around this range. Then add on top of that they were able to collect an extra $60M on Disney+, of which at least $20M of that was Domestic (SambaTV analytics claims $30M).

I just don't see how they look at this and see how this is pretty much the low point for what they will earn theatrically and on Disney+ with MCU movies. It also gives people a choice. If you want to go to a theater, which many do, then you still can have that experience. But if you want to just watch the movie at home, then guess what? You can! And if you have basically 3 people or more, you're saving money, and that's not counting money spent on gas, food, drinks, etc that you may spend while going out. $30 really actually doesn't look bad to a lot of people when you think of it like that.

The formula seems to be kind of all over, as Shang-Chi will not be on Premier Access and is sticking to a 45 day theatrical run. Jungle Cruise will probably be the film that determines how they treat the Premier Access system moving forward. If it does well, I don't see why they shouldn't offer it as an option for bigger movies.

That being said, I do think Feige has a little more influence within the company than people give him credit for.