I've been wanting to post about DL's new "membership" system, but now that I finally have a little extra time to spare, here's my two cents:
I have a hot take here: Assuming they are using this as an excuse to blow up their prices like crazy (C'mon, it's Disney. You know they will.) I think there's a good possibility that this membership program is going to blow up in their face. Okay, after you're done laughing at my post, hear me out:
Remember the last time a major theme park got super cocky towards their AP base in SoCal? The first time I can remember this was when USH restructured their APs when Potter opened. I remember just like yesterday how PISSED i was when USH removed parking from all of their options (even the highest tiered pass didn't offer it! FOR $500!!!!!!). All the passes were almost double the price for not even half the value. They did this because they expected there to be so much demand for Harry Potter that the gates would be bursting at the seams with guests. Welp, come grand opening, the line for FJ died down to only ten minutes later in the night. On Grand. Opening. Day. USH knew they made a horrible mistake and had to fix it. Their once massive following of APs they had? Gone. Reduced to atoms. For a while they had at least 20 different AP calendars, it was such a mess. But they learned from that and eventually won back the AP crowd.
Now fast forward a few years to DLR, where they did not learn from USH....like, at all. Remember SW:GE? Remember how everyone was expecting apocalyptic levels of crowds to see STAR WARS LAND? Remember when Iger arrogantly said that the demand would be so big that they wouldn't need to advertise and the parks would be bursting at the seams? Remember when they jacked up the prices for the APs assuming the crowds would ridiculous? Guess what we ended up? An empty Disneyland throughout May 2019....even into the Summer crowds were virtually nonexistent! At best, all the land did was disperse the crowds instead of add crowds. Who would've thought that DLR would be EMPTY throughout the Summer with the opening of GE? Well, maybe it's because the land's flagship ride wasn't open yet. Well, fast forward again to January 2020: When RotR finally opened. While the parks weren't really apocalyptic levels, they finally got the fairly decent crowd they wanted to see this awesome new ride. Then a couple of months later.....a little thing called Coronavirus happened. Just when Disney finally has their "footing" together with the popularity of RotR, they were able to enjoy it for two months months (If that!) before the lockdowns happened.
Now here is where I think Disney is about to repeat their mistake of getting cocky toward their *former* AP base here. DLR has been shut down for 14 months. They have been losing MILLIONS every day the parks have been closed. Disney has taken a beating with the lockdowns in place. Now that things are opening back up, people are feeling safer getting their vaccines, and normality is virtually at our doorstep (Moreso in Florida), it only make sense to restart their AP program, right? I mean, the parks are going to be so overcrowded by the pent-up demand, we need to address this "inevitable" issue. Also, why not have the consumers of the new membership program foot the bill for all the money we lost during the pandemic? I mean, they'll be so happy to be back, they'll pay ANYTHING just be back at Disney! I mean, they literally showed they'll pay money just to eat and do nothing else for the Taste of Disney event!
What I think Disney fails to realize here is that Covid has completely changed EVERYONE'S habits. Almost overnight, we've had to go from being able to go to DL every week to get a churro and get boarding pass 420 for RotR, to having to go over a year of no theme parks. Just like that. DLR has had over 1.2 MILLION (Yes, MILLION) AP Holders prior to Covid. I was one of them, but I was among the poor peasants who got the monthly SoCal select. In that massive number of people, I'm sure there's a decent amount whose financial status has changed, who have moved out of state (There has been a MASSIVE exodus of Californians this past year), or who even may straight-up decide "You know what? I've gone for over a year without Disney. I don't need it." (I even know some people like this). Again, Covid has rearranged everyone's priorities and have pushed people to "trim the fat" from their lives. I personally don't see myself getting one if the minimum cost is like $700 or $800 for the cheapest membership, especially if it's REALLY restricted. Sure there will definately be some more elite people like JPland who will probably mooch off of his filthy rich parents to get the most expensive membership. Yes, I know that Touch of Disney food event did sell out repeatedly, but those events were very limited capacity and people were just starved for anything to do. But once we're back on track to normality, again, assuming Disney is going to use this as an opportunity to offer WAY more for less (And you know they will!), I think Disney is once again about to jump the shark and quickly forget the fine line they crossed with SW:GE. I think they will probably end up with parks that won't be empty, but they won't necessarily meet the quota they want. Disney is not in a position to play chicken with their AP/membership prices like they were before. Covid has changed the market for DIsney APs and I think Disney is going to overestimate the loyalty of their base here.