The Grinch (2018)

[zg44]

We'll see what happens this weekend, but I expect Grinch to cut heavily into Fantastic Beasts 2's domestic gross. Not sure this was a matchup that WB should have gone for...

Grinch will win a lot of walkup/spontaneous business from families with young children the next couple of weeks.

 

[hishedale]

Saw it on Friday, I actually liked it quite a bit. I usually don’t like Illumination films, but this felt as though there was some genuine heart put into it. Of course it’s a children’s film, so most of the humor was silly, but I liked the story changes. I still like Jim Carrey’s Grinch better just because I grew up on it, but I think this new film is the best rounded of the three.

 

[quinnmac000]

It seems the Grinch is overperforming in its third week, a lot of box office estimates put it at 30 million for this weekend however estimates have risen up to $ 40 Million

 

[Nick]

It seems the Grinch is overperforming in its third week, a lot of box office estimates put it at 30 million for this weekend however estimates have risen up to $ 40 Million

Is that for the 3-day or 5-Day though?

 

[quinnmac000]

Is that for the 3-day or 5-Day though?

5 day previous estimate was 30 million-5 day now 40 million

 

[zg44]

It seems the Grinch is overperforming in its third week, a lot of box office estimates put it at 30 million for this weekend however estimates have risen up to $ 40 Million

Yeah, seems on track to finish around $300 million domestically now.

That would give it a 4.5x multiplier which would be very strong.


Given the direct holiday tie-in, it should be able to pull in $20-30 million per week through the next 5 weeks.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

Yeah, seems on track to finish around $300 million domestically now.

That would give it a 4.5x multiplier which would be very strong.


Given the direct holiday tie-in, it should be able to pull in $20-30 million per week through the next 5 weeks.

300 is a stretch considering how many theaters will drop it at the Christmas release onslaught, but it should land around Sing's total.

 

[quinnmac000]

The Grinch is about to cross 200 Million this weekend and has rebounded and expected to take #2 in the Box office.

 

[zg44]

300 is a stretch considering how many theaters will drop it at the Christmas release onslaught, but it should land around Sing's total.

Yeah I think Universal execs are happy that it's guaranted to go over $250 million with these strong holds.


Will pay for itself with the US box office alone, and then it will playable every December as a TV movie in the future.

 

[UNIrd]

Eh.. Jim Carrey's The Grinch made $260 mil domestic back in 2000 so...

 

[quinnmac000]

Eh.. Jim Carrey's The Grinch made $260 mil domestic back in 2000 so...

But flopped international. This film is trending high in China, Korea, and Japan and has only been released in 38 territories so far.

 

[Nick]

But flopped international. This film is trending high in China, Korea, and Japan and has only been released in 38 territories so far.

The Grinch is still over $100M behind Jim Carrey’s total and Crimes of Grindelwald has earned twice as much Worldwide. So let’s not overplay the success.

 

[Disneyhead]

The Grinch is still over $100M behind Jim Carrey’s total and Crimes of Grindelwald has earned twice as much Worldwide. So let’s not overplay the success.

The Jim Carrey one was a big budget ($123,000,000) Ron Howard film starring Jim Carrey. The new one only had a $70,000,000 budget and has pulled in $268,000,000 and still going. So I think Universal is still looking at it as a success.

 

[Nick]

The Jim Carrey one was a big budget ($123,000,000) Ron Howard film starring Jim Carrey. The new one only had a $70,000,000 budget and has pulled in $268,000,000 and still going. So I think Universal is still looking at it as a success.

Oh no doubt.

 

[UNIrd]

I'm pretty sure the marketing budget for this thing was twice that cuz lord.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

yeah, I would more than wonder how marketing and merchandise is affecting the success-ratio of the film more than production budget in this case. Especially, marketing; as they took it to another level in a way.

 

[zg44]

The Grinch is still over $100M behind Jim Carrey’s total and Crimes of Grindelwald has earned twice as much Worldwide. So let’s not overplay the success.

Success is determined relative to expectations. This Grinch is on track to finish above the Jim Carrey film nominally and well above the rest of the Dr Seuss movies in the US. Yeah I realize inflation is a factor, but that Carrey film was at the height of his popularity; he was selling that film in the US more than the Grinch/Seuss brand. This one is being sold by the Grinch/Seuss brand, not the actor.


FB2 isn't really a good worldwide comparison for this film since they're polar opposites. FB2 is much stronger outside the US while Grinch/Seuss brand is much weaker outside the US. Can't really compare a movie that expects to earn 75-80% overseas (FB2) with one that expects to earn only 35-40% overseas (Grinch).


The best comparison right now is probably Ralph 2 which is posting $25.8 million in its 2nd weekend while Grinch is at $17.7 million in its 4th weekend. It's holding very strongly for an animated movie (probably due to the Holiday tie in) and on track for $260-275 million, possibly higher.


Grinch is on track to finish as the 2nd strongest Winter movie in the US unless Aquaman explodes. Only really Mary Poppins is clearly expected to hit $300+ million.


Hard to overplay that level of success; this is hitting all the benchmarks that Universal/Illumination wanted from their final Seuss movie. A worldwide finish in the $450-500 million range is at the upper end of expectations.

 

[Nick]

Success is determined relative to expectations. This Grinch is on track to finish above the Jim Carrey film nominally and well above the rest of the Dr Seuss movies in the US. Yeah I realize inflation is a factor, but that Carrey film was at the height of his popularity; he was selling that film in the US more than the Grinch/Seuss brand. This one is being sold by the Grinch/Seuss brand, not the actor.


FB2 isn't really a good worldwide comparison for this film since they're polar opposites. FB2 is much stronger outside the US while Grinch/Seuss brand is much weaker outside the US. Can't really compare a movie that expects to earn 75-80% overseas (FB2) with one that expects to earn only 35-40% overseas (Grinch).


The best comparison right now is probably Ralph 2 which is posting $25.8 million in its 2nd weekend while Grinch is at $17.7 million in its 4th weekend. It's holding very strongly for an animated movie (probably due to the Holiday tie in) and on track for $260-275 million, possibly higher.


Grinch is on track to finish as the 2nd strongest Winter movie in the US unless Aquaman explodes. Only really Mary Poppins is clearly expected to hit $300+ million.


Hard to overplay that level of success; this is hitting all the benchmarks that Universal/Illumination wanted from their final Seuss movie. A worldwide finish in the $450-500 million range is at the upper end of expectations.

All I’m saying is that Coco brought in $800M last year and still some people were calling it a failure. Clearly it wasn’t and neither is The Grinch.

 

[zg44]

All I’m saying is that Coco brought in $800M last year and still some people were calling it a failure. Clearly it wasn’t and neither is The Grinch.

Yeah I agree with that completely. I also think a movie like Ralph 2 will be successful overall; it's just hard these days when the comparison points for animated movies are Finding Dory/Zootopia/Minions/Incredibles 2. Only a handful of movies have ever hit that range.

Most animated movies are going to aim for $200 million US and $300 million overseas to be successful. Obviously for a movie like Grinch you largely reverse those numbers, while for Coco you double the overseas take. There's plenty of ways to be successful in this business and I think both are.

 

[quinnmac000]

I'm pretty sure the marketing budget for this thing was twice that cuz lord.

It was only 80 million across all global markets not just domestic.

Leading up to its Dec. 14 release, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will receive an extra $115M promotional boost from an array of global brands, making it one of Sony’s largest in the studio’s history, up there with Spider-Man: Homecoming which counted a $140M value. Spider-Verse also outstrips the recent $80M global brand promo of Universal/Illumination’s The Grinch.

Typically brands at this time of year seek to capitalize on Christmastime to drive sales, but the fact that they’re partnering with Spider-Man speaks to his commercial power, arguably up there with Star Wars.