Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[belloq87]

I think Sony would be insane to hand the next Spider-Man over to Disney+. That franchise is basically all they've got.

 

[Nick]

I'm not reading into anything long term unless several other studios try this strategy. WarnerMedia doesn't have the money to release bigger titles right now, and as the pandemic continues, they'll lose more money anyways. There's no harm in this strategy as theaters have no bargaining power for the next year (if they ever get it back), but once the pandemic ends, people will want to get out of the house. Disney might be in this boat too with their losses, but I'd be surprised if Universal, Sony, or Paramount jump onto this train given how they've handled pandemic releases (or a lack thereof).

Here's the thing: Disney and Warner are where most major tentpoles lie and where the majority of the money normally rolls in from. If they both go more to a streaming model, then the theaters will be hurting so bad that some may not be around to play Sony & Paramount movies. Universal at least has Peacock to fall back on (and Paramount actually has CBS All Access, which is being rebranded as Paramount+ next year).

 

[WAJAS]

Here's the thing: Disney and Warner are where most major tentpoles lie and where the majority of the money normally rolls in from. If they both go more to a streaming model, then the theaters will be hurting so bad that some may not be around to play Sony & Paramount movies. Universal at least has Peacock to fall back on (and Paramount actually has CBS All Access, which is being rebranded as Paramount+ next year).

True, we don't really need to be worried about the death of theaters tho. (Not claiming you said this.)

I think theaters will end up taking up less space, offering a more premium service, and becoming mostly independent. They'll also likely shift to screening a lot more independent and throwback films, which I'd personally appreciate.

 

[Tristan]

Ironically Christopher Nolan in trying to save movie theaters ended up bringing them to their demise.

 

[quinnmac000]

Ehh this might not be the future...WB didn’t tell production partners this was the plan so future films may be impacted negatively.

Legendary was not informed until they read the press release that dune was going to HBO Max, that effects their participation revenue in the back end meaning WB may not get future Pokemon live action and more films for distribution.

I can also see this upsetting James Wan as well.

It looks like cinema truly had one champion this entire time which was Universal but the theatres chose the butts of WB and Disney to kiss in their demise.

 

[Nick]

Ehh this might not be the future...WB didn’t tell production partners this was the plan so future films may be impacted negatively.

Legendary was not informed until they read the press release that dune was going to HBO Max, that effects their participation revenue in the back end meaning WB may not get future Pokemon live action and more films for distribution.

I can also see this upsetting James Wan as well.

It looks like cinema truly had one champion this entire time which was Universal but the theatres chose the butts of WB and Disney to kiss in their demise.

Universal’s been releasing movies, sure. And it’s great! But they aren’t bringing in anywhere near the money that WB or Disney films would. The theatrical box office has been putrid.

 

[HalfGlass]

Stimulus Package Could Grant Several Billion Dollars to 60% of Movie Theaters in the Country

There’s still hope...

 

[Nick]

Stimulus Package Could Grant Several Billion Dollars to 60% of Movie Theaters in the Country

There’s still hope...

That just keeps them alive longer. If they don't have the content because everyone's preferred way to consume it is at home, then theaters will become like vinyl records - they'll still be around, but in smaller numbers and more like a boutique experience.

 

[HalfGlass]

That just keeps them alive longer. If they don't have the content because everyone's preferred way to consume it is at home, then theaters will become like vinyl records - they'll still be around, but in smaller numbers and more like a boutique experience.

I’m still erring on the side of theaters being relevant again in 2022

:deadhorse:

 

[Nick]

I’m still erring on the side of theaters being relevant again in 2022

:deadhorse:

I want this too, but even someone like myself who goes to see a ton of big blockbusters on opening weekend has to admit that I'll probably see more movies under this new model. I do miss it - it's a communal experience and aside from everything else going on, big movies not being released has lead to me seeing some friends a lot less this year and I've actually made long lasting friendships during opening weekends of a big movie while waiting to get in.

The problem is, once you take the genie out of the bottle and switch to day and date premieres, it'll be really hard to put it back in because then you're changing audience expectations. After 2021, most people will have become accustomed to watching movie releases at home and there's really no going back from that, unfortunately.

 

[HalfGlass]

I want this too, but even someone like myself who goes to see a ton of big blockbusters on opening weekend has to admit that I'll probably see more movies under this new model. I do miss it - it's a communal experience and aside from everything else going on, big movies not being released has lead to me seeing some friends a lot less this year and I've actually made long lasting friendships during opening weekends of a big movie while waiting to get it.

The problem is, once you take the genie out of the bottle and switch to day and date premieres, it'll be really hard to put it back in because then you're changing audience expectations. After 2021, most people will have become accustomed to watching movie releases at home and there's really no going back from that, unfortunately.

I hear you and I sadly think you may be right....but the only thing I can see working in the favor of theaters is that $100-200 mil films will no longer be profitable, at least frequently, on strictly PVOD platforms. Especially if films go straight to subscription based services and there’s not a pay-per-view model like they tried early in the pandemic. I feel like audiences will still crave those blockbusters and I hope that helps studios reconsider moving strictly to low to mid budget fare. I can never see something like Avatar or Avengers Endgame being a success financially for these studios as a strict day of release.

 

[Nick]

I hear you and I sadly think you may be right....but the only thing I can see working in the favor of theaters is that $100-200 mil films will no longer be profitable, at least frequently, on strictly PVOD platforms. Especially if films go straight to subscription based services and there’s not a pay-per-view model like they tried early in the pandemic. I feel like audiences will still crave those those blockbusters and I hope that helps studios reconsider moving strictly to low to mid budget fare.

They will actually be far more viable than most people think. Especially for someone like Disney+ or HBO Max, who are spending either nothing or very little on licensing deals. Disney+ for instance has said they plan on spending $10B on original content by the late 2020's when they had projected themselves to have 100M subscribers... which they are fast approaching. If they were to spend even $5B on original content (they only spend $1B right now), they could absorb all of WDAS, Pixar, Marvel, etc and justify the cost that way. Disney+ also has no licensing costs to pay (Meanwhile, Netflix paid over $14B in Licensing last year).

Since Disney+ would be offering a much better product by doing this, they could easily raise their prices to $9-10/month if not more if Hulu is added.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

They will actually be far more viable than most people think. Especially for someone like Disney+ or HBO Max, who are spending either nothing or very little on licensing deals. Disney+ for instance has said they plan on spending $10B on original content by the late 2020's when they had projected themselves to have 100M subscribers... which they are fast approaching. If they were to spend even $5B on original content (they only spend $1B right now), they could absorb all of WDAS, Pixar, Marvel, etc and justify the cost that way. Disney+ also has no licensing costs to pay (Meanwhile, Netflix paid over $14B in Licensing last year).

Since Disney+ would be offering a much better product by doing this, they could easily raise their prices to $9-10/month if not more if Hulu is added.

I can see how they'd spend a billion on just Marvel and Star Wars alone, but beyond that, that price seems low. Then again, besides Marvel and Star Wars, it's mostly cheaper non-fiction or reality television.

 

[rageofthegods]

@quinnmac000 brought this up earlier, but I think it needs to be reiterated: this move has the potential to seriously damage Warner's talent relations. Everything I'm reading suggests that Warners handled this poorly behind the scenes.

‘You Just Screwed the Film Business’: Panic Over the Warner Bros. News Sets In

The company’s decision to premiere its 2021 titles on HBO Max has major segments of the movie industry up in arms.

www.vulture.com

Filmmakers, financial partners and other stakeholders weren't informed in advance and agents were apparently only briefed an hour before the announcement. I think we should be prepared to see fallout from this, not just wrt their finances, but also to whether creatives and financiers will want to continue working with Warners when they don't seek their input on matters that directly affect their compensation.

 

[Nick]

@quinnmac000 brought this up earlier, but I think it needs to be reiterated: this move has the potential to seriously damage Warner's talent relations. Everything I'm reading suggests that Warners handled this poorly behind the scenes.

‘You Just Screwed the Film Business’: Panic Over the Warner Bros. News Sets In

The company’s decision to premiere its 2021 titles on HBO Max has major segments of the movie industry up in arms.

www.vulture.com

Filmmakers, financial partners and other stakeholders weren't informed in advance and agents were apparently only briefed an hour before the announcement. I think we should be prepared to see fallout from this, not just wrt their finances, but also to whether creatives and financiers will want to continue working with Warners when they don't seek their input on matters that directly affect their compensation.

Remember when NATO and AMC went off on Universal for not consulting them about the Trolls World Tour move? That got resolved fairly easily in the end because money talks. I suspect Warner will patch up their relationships.

Still though, it was bone-headed of them to just sort of wing it on this and not give even a courtesy heads up to anyone.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Still though, it was bone-headed of them to just sort of wing it on this and not give even a courtesy heads up to anyone.

Bone-headed morally or logistically? Morally sure, but maybe Warners thinks, screw it, if everyone's scrambling to get contracts in order, that give us more leverage to set terms for this model in the future. Either that, or Warner Bros. is just truly desperate.

 

[Nick]

Bone-headed morally or logistically? Morally sure, but maybe Warners thinks, screw it, if everyone's scrambling to get contracts in order, that give us more leverage to set terms for this model in the future. Either that, or Warner Bros. is just truly desperate.

Bone-headed morally for sure, but also pissing off people you’re working with. You’ve gotta remember, many actors have clauses in their contract that state they get bonuses if a movie earns “x” amount. That’s completely gone now and any other similar clauses.

Warner must be betting that they’ll be able to smooth it over, like I said in my first post.

 

[rageofthegods]

Remember when NATO and AMC went off on Universal for not consulting them about the Trolls World Tour move? That got resolved fairly easily in the end because money talks. I suspect Warner will patch up their relationships.

Still though, it was bone-headed of them to just sort of wing it on this and not give even a courtesy heads up to anyone.

I think creators have a lot more power in this situation than theaters did with TWT. Proven creators like Nolan or Jenkins would still have other people bidding for their movies should they choose to walk (see: the wild auction for Cleopatra), whereas theater margins are so thin and the pandemic so ruinous for their finances that boycotting even one studio would be untenable, especially a studio as big as Universal. Sure, money talks, but other people have money too. And besides, this whole dispute is partially about money; WB pushing movies to HBOM potentially harms Box Office, and many top creatives are paid based on BO (EDIT: I see you address this in your reply, and I agree that Warners will probably be able to smooth out most of their relationships eventually.)

I'm not saying creatives will boycott WB forever, to be clear. But I expect to see more Cleopatra-style snubs for WB. At the very least, working relations are going to get very awkward. They might even lose a key producing deal, like Atomic Monster.

 

[Nick]

I think creators have a lot more power in this situation than theaters did with TWT. Proven creators like Nolan or Jenkins would still have other people bidding for their movies should they choose to walk (see: the wild auction for Cleopatra), whereas theater margins are so thin and the pandemic so ruinous for their finances that boycotting even one studio would be untenable, especially a studio as big as Universal. Sure, money talks, but other people have money too. And besides, this whole dispute is partially about money; WB pushing movies to HBOM potentially harms Box Office, and many top creatives are paid based on BO (EDIT: I see you address this in your reply, and I agree that Warners will probably be able to smooth out most of their relationships eventually.)

I'm not saying creatives will boycott WB forever, to be clear. But I expect to see more Cleopatra-style snubs for WB. At the very least, working relations are going to get very awkward. They might even lose a key producing deal, like Atomic Monster.

I think their most high profile relationship that could be damaged long-term is with Legendary. I could see them taking up a lawsuit with Warner over Godzilla vs. Kong and Dune. Legendary doesn't co-finance films just for fun, they do it to make money and although the films are technically going to be in theaters, they're going to perform poorly considering that the films will be included with HBO Max subscription. I suppose Warner could just write off the films to pay back Legendary and whatever other financers they're screwing over on other movies?

 

[rageofthegods]

I think their most high profile relationship that could be damaged long-term is with Legendary. I could see them taking up a lawsuit with Warner over Godzilla vs. Kong and Dune. Legendary doesn't co-finance films just for fun, they do it to make money and although the films are technically going to be in theaters, they're going to perform poorly considering that the films will be included with HBO Max subscription. I suppose Warner could just write off the films to pay back Legendary and whatever other financers they're screwing over on other movies?

Legendary has got to be pissed about this, yeah and I'm sure they're arguing behind the scenes rn. Still, I don't see a big breakup between them and Warners, because where else would they go?

Disney doesn't co-finance their movies. Universal probably doesn't want a repeat of their last experience with Legendary, where they were forced to give up stakes in their highest-profile franchises in exchange for movies that often bombed. Paramount already has multiple cofinancing partners lined up (Skydance, New Republic). And Sony...I don't really know whats going on at Sony, actually, but they don't really make production deals anymore and probably don't want to give up financial stakes in Spiderman or Jumanji.

I think a suit is a last resort, if even that. Their deal with Warner is still incredible (flat rate instead of percentage on their movies!) And I don't think they'll want to give that up. There's the possibility that they could become a free agent, selling movies to studios all over town, but idk. Who would buy a movie like Skyscraper?