I don't know what was going on this weekend, but Magic Kingdom was not busy either. 35 LM, 25 Dumbo, Pooh was 20, and HM was practically a walk on. I didn't see the wait time for Peter Pan, but if I had to guess I would say it was 30 based on the line I saw. I was shocked, I expected it to be really crowded, but it was less crowded than when I went in May. Space Mountain when we passed on the transportation thing was only 35 minutes. Just was an odd day. The only thing with a long line was Barnstormers and that was because it was only running one coaster. It was between 40 and 55, but I am sure that would be cut in half if they had the normal two coasters running.
Maybe this weekend was exceptionally slow, but I think it's the start of a trend this summer. As a matter of fact, I think Orlando tourism will be down all over the place--Disney has nothing all that new, SeaWorld...well I don't know many people who plan trips just for SeaWorld. That leaves us with Universal.
Everyone has been saying this will be one of Universal's biggest summers but I keep saying it will be very average. I got shot down the first time I said this, but I'll say it again:
1. Not enough of a Transformers fan-base. Transformers merchandise sales have been very disappointing, especially compared to say, Despicable Me. Furthermore, European and South American audiences just don't have the same appreciation for the property.
2. It's already in Hollywood. Everyone on the West Coast and arguably Asia who wanted to ride it have done so in California. While that leaves the entire East Coast, consider this: Universal announced it pretty late in the game, and no one who really wanted to see the Transformers in action would've held off seeing Hollywood for a Florida trip simply because they didn't have time to. All the theme park nerds who make trips to parks for one ride would've already done so for the Hollywood version. So now everyone not a driving distance away from Orlando won't feel the need to go down and ride Transformers because if they love parks that much, they already went to see it in Hollywood. Of course, for some it isn't feasible to go all the way to Hollywood to ride it, so they will surely make up a large population of the Universal summer crowds but those average theme park goers are probably weary of the proposed crowds anyway.
3. Universal announced Harry Potter before Transformers opened. Dumb move. Now people have to ask themselves, "hmm, do we go now for just one ride, or wait a couple years for a whole new land?" So now we're missing out on those who are going to come down for Harry Potter and figure they'll just do it all in one trip.
Basically, this summer is going to see a lot of locals but I don't think much else besides people who already take annual trips anyway or people who were going to come no matter what. It'll probably be about on par with the crowds when Despicable Me opened, probably a bit meatier but not by much.