Universal Great Britain - Speculation & Rumors

[EllieB]

On the topic of trains from Europe:

The Eurostar rival that wants trains to Europe from across UK — not just London

High-speed Uber trains could soon be running from London to Europe — but the dream is to extend services to every corner of the UK.

metro.co.uk

 

[rob@rar]

On the topic of trains from Europe:

The Eurostar rival that wants trains to Europe from across UK — not just London

High-speed Uber trains could soon be running from London to Europe — but the dream is to extend services to every corner of the UK.

metro.co.uk

I'm not sure that having international trains arriving in Stratford or Ebbsfleet makes more sense than the current Eurostar trains arriving in St Pancras if catching an onward service to Universal/Kempston is the intention.

 

[masekwm]

The title for the land for the junction brings in a load of other land, perhaps that is where the difference is:

 

[tommyhawkins]

I do wonder where the other 200 acres are, Broadmead Farm and the land strangely including BCA is 247 acres, I wonder if this part of the land, but I think this is all former pits and unlikely to be useful unless for wildlife rehoming if the other pits are to be drained as was the plan for the former business park.
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You can see it on the right of this photo.

Half that site is a Zone 2 flood zone similar to the very northern portion of the uni pit where the badgers will live, only not quite as serious

I was referencing the total Wandering Northern has said was the Core, Lake and West Gateway Zone together.

Either im getting deja vu (quite possible) or we've literally had this conversation before. The 700 acre figure was 150 acres short, which is what the land north of the slip road plot is on

 

[EllieB]

I'm not sure that having international trains arriving in Stratford or Ebbsfleet makes more sense than the current Eurostar trains arriving in St Pancras if catching an onward service to Universal/Kempston is the intention.

I get the feeling this company would just like to have an exclusive departure destination.

It's good to see that there seems to be a lot of appetite for multiple providers running trains through the tunnel though.

 

[rob@rar]

Either im getting deja vu (quite possible) or we've literally had this conversation before. The 700 acre figure was 150 acres short, which is what the land north of the slip road plot is on

Part of the land north of the Universal slip road, about 23 acres I think, is likely to be the subject of a planning application to Bedford Council from the AW Group, who are proposing the development of a solar farm, battery storage and a very large EV charging station with 60 high speed charging spaces. AW Group requested a pre-application screening from Bedford Council to determine whether and environmental impact assessment would be required alongside the formal planning application, and Bedford Council recently said that the site would not require an EIA.

 

[rob@rar]

I get the feeling this company would just like to have an exclusive departure destination.

It's good to see that there seems to be a lot of appetite for multiple providers running trains through the tunnel though.

Yes, competition for Eurostar would be a good thing, possibly from Uber/Gemini and Virgin Trains/FS Italiane Group. From the little that I've read, it seems that Stratford International Station is likely to be the London terminus for these services as it is already setup for international arrivals/departures, but this facility is unused. As you say, this would be an exclusive departure destination, with good onward links to central London, although not very convenient for visitors to Universal who would likely have to travel to St Pancras for a connecting service to the new Universal/Kempston Station. For those people, the existing Eurostar services would be a better option as they would arrive directly to St Pancras for an easy transfer for trains to Universal.

 

[tommyhawkins]

Part of the land north of the Universal slip road, about 23 acres I think, is likely to be the subject of a planning application to Bedford Council from the AW Group, who are proposing the development of a solar farm, battery storage and a very large EV charging station with 60 high speed charging spaces. AW Group requested a pre-application screening from Bedford Council to determine whether and environmental impact assessment would be required alongside the formal planning application, and Bedford Council recently said that the site would not require an EIA.

i thought the solar farm was going on the rubbish dump land

 

[rob@rar]

i thought the solar farm was going on the rubbish dump land

Not according to the documents on Bedford Council's planning portal. If approved and constructed, it will be on the parcel of land between the A421 and Universal's Core Zone, to the North of the West Gateway Zone that Universal will build the slip road from the A421. The solar farm won't cover all of that parcel of land, but a fair chunk of the northern end of it.

I have no idea who currently owns that parcel of land, whether it's AW Group or a different landowner working in partnership with AW. It's also very early in the process as the recent planning permission process was a pre-application screening rather than a detailed formal planning application. It might be just a bit speculative and they haven't yet invested much money in the project, so no guarantee it's going ahead. But there doesn't seem to be any indication available to the public that Universal are interested in that plot of land for future development of theme park related activities.

Edit: a bit of further digging reminded me of a link I posted last year, to an archeological study on the parcel of land north of the West Gateway Zone. The archeological study (see Fig 1) shows that that parcel of land is divided in to "CP Farm" and "Elms Farm". The land known as Elms Farm is where the proposed solar farm and EV charging station will be located, and I'm not sure who currently owns that land. CP Farm was being promoted for residential housing and the land is owned by O&H Land.

 

[masekwm]

This area is the area planned for the solar farm and charging station & Starbucks or similar, on the old A421

 

[tommyhawkins]

This area is the area planned for the solar farm and charging station & Starbucks or similar, on the old A421


View attachment 27745

View attachment 27746

Right, my issue with this is, this really paints UDX into a corner with future expansion, although "12.5m a year" might be somewhat arbitrary, the park they're planning right now is half the size of Universal Beijing, and there's no way a single park will big enough, even if they eventually chop the car park in half and use that. So my question for the people that know the planning stuff better, can Unis plans supersede that Solar farm planning permission, can they compulsory purchase that land? I just don't see how this resort can grow in the future without that addition land, there's no obvious/idea alternatives....maybe the rubbish dump land to the south but not ideal

 

[masekwm]

But it's only 30 acres, so isn't going to make that much of a difference, the site is already pretty surrounded with warehousing and housing anyway so they're pretty much at capacity.

 

[rob@rar]

Right, my issue with this is, this really paints UDX into a corner with future expansion, although "12.5m a year" might be somewhat arbitrary, the park they're planning right now is half the size of Universal Beijing, and there's no way a single park will big enough, even if they eventually chop the car park in half and use that. So my question for the people that know the planning stuff better, can Unis plans supersede that Solar farm planning permission, can they compulsory purchase that land? I just don't see how this resort can grow in the future without that addition land, there's no obvious/idea alternatives....maybe the rubbish dump land to the south but not ideal

If Universal want the CP Farm and Elms Farm land the easiest way for them to achieve that is to make an offer to the landowners to purchase that land. National or local government can issue a Compulsory Purchase Order when it is in the public interest to do so, although I think public interest is normally defined in terms of infrastructure development, major housing development, etc, rather than a straightforward commercial development like a theme park. If a CPO is issued the landowner needs to be compensated at market value, which circles back to the point about Universal just buying the land in the first place.

If Universal were hoping that further land acquisition would happen by Compulsory Purchase Order I'd have thought that they would have included it in the Special Development Order planning application to the government? The SDO application is so wide ranging that including longer term plans for expansion by way of CPO land acquisition would have ensured a way forward for Universal, given that is certain that the government is going to approve their planning application. As far as I can tell, there's no hints that Universal is planning on acquiring that CP Farm/Elms Farm land, and there are active proposals for housing and solar farm developments, so I can't see that bit of land being part of Universal's future. Although having said that, so much of the work to date have been kept under wraps it's anyone's guess what else Universal might be planning beyond what has been made public.

I think you raise an interesting point about visitor numbers and park size/attraction count. As I understand it, Epic Universe is currently running well under the attendance that Universal is targeting for the park at Bedford, but despite having more attractions than we've guessed at for USGB's opening roster we are seeing extremely long queues in Epic's first summer season. Have to say, that makes me a little nervous about the kind of experience that guests at USGB are going to have if that park really is hitting 8.5m in the first year of operation.

 

[EllieB]

I think you raise an interesting point about visitor numbers and park size/attraction count. As I understand it, Epic Universe is currently running well under the attendance that Universal is targeting for the park at Bedford, but despite having more attractions than we've guessed at for USGB's opening roster we are seeing extremely long queues in Epic's first summer season. Have to say, that makes me a little nervous about the kind of experience that guests at USGB are going to have if that park really is hitting 8.5m in the first year of operation.

I think (perhaps optimistically) that suggests we're currently underestimating the number of attractions in the UK park. Hopefully lands like BttF, which we are currently only assuming to have the one big coaster, will actually also contain a number of smaller rides and attractions that will draw and hold people.

 

[xtpower]

If you think that the concept art will be fully representative of the finished product then you'd think we're lacking attractions. If you believe it's an early bluesky piece of art then you'd believe that the number of attractions will naturally change.

Going on a tangent, with the public consultation ending in 13hrs, do we know the next steps? @rob@rar you're on the ball with planning protocols, what do you reckon the next steps will be? I saw a comment on facebook that said it'll be heard in the Commons/Lords and we have 21 days for MP's to come out against it. I saw another comment that says we won't get a decision until the end of october as there's a 8 week window or something.

As I know pretty much nothing about the process, I'm hoping one of our more knowledgeable posters can shed some light on it.

 

[tommyhawkins]

What was in the artwork was one less E ticket, 2 less C Tickets, 2 less D tickets, but considerably more B tickets, and one more show than Epic. But my point was, with what's there, the space available and taking into account them fleshing out the lands from concept so even if it is comparable to Epic's roster which is lacking even for Year 1, they don't have much left to work with. No one is really worried about Epic because we know it has 35 acres to grow, it has space to comfortably reach parity of the other two parks for attendance. From my new assessment of the park layout, there is maybe 17 acres expansion space once everything from the artwork goes in, and then if they building the parking garage they can claw back another 18-20 acres.

in 2019 Islands of adventure saw a little bit shy of 11million visitors, or basically 30K per day, and they say they want to hit 34K per day for this park

I think (perhaps optimistically) that suggests we're currently underestimating the number of attractions in the UK park. Hopefully lands like BttF, which we are currently only assuming to have the one big coaster, will actually also contain a number of smaller rides and attractions that will draw and hold people.

If Universal want the CP Farm and Elms Farm land the easiest way for them to achieve that is to make an offer to the landowners to purchase that land. National or local government can issue a Compulsory Purchase Order when it is in the public interest to do so, although I think public interest is normally defined in terms of infrastructure development, major housing development, etc, rather than a straightforward commercial development like a theme park. If a CPO is issued the landowner needs to be compensated at market value, which circles back to the point about Universal just buying the land in the first place.

If Universal were hoping that further land acquisition would happen by Compulsory Purchase Order I'd have thought that they would have included it in the Special Development Order planning application to the government? The SDO application is so wide ranging that including longer term plans for expansion by way of CPO land acquisition would have ensured a way forward for Universal, given that is certain that the government is going to approve their planning application. As far as I can tell, there's no hints that Universal is planning on acquiring that CP Farm/Elms Farm land, and there are active proposals for housing and solar farm developments, so I can't see that bit of land being part of Universal's future. Although having said that, so much of the work to date have been kept under wraps it's anyone's guess what else Universal might be planning beyond what has been made public.

I think you raise an interesting point about visitor numbers and park size/attraction count. As I understand it, Epic Universe is currently running well under the attendance that Universal is targeting for the park at Bedford, but despite having more attractions than we've guessed at for USGB's opening roster we are seeing extremely long queues in Epic's first summer season. Have to say, that makes me a little nervous about the kind of experience that guests at USGB are going to have if that park really is hitting 8.5m in the first year of operation.

 

[rob@rar]

Going on a tangent, with the public consultation ending in 13hrs, do we know the next steps? @rob@rar you're on the ball with planning protocols, what do you reckon the next steps will be? I saw a comment on facebook that said it'll be heard in the Commons/Lords and we have 21 days for MP's to come out against it. I saw another comment that says we won't get a decision until the end of october as there's a 8 week window or something.

No particular insight, but I hope the government will table the Statutory Instrument that contains the Special Development Order using a 'made negative' procedure. This means there will not be a timetabled debate in either the Commons or the Lords, and the SI becomes law the day that it is laid. That means Universal will have planning permission granted and they can start major construction works whenever they want. Although the SI becomes law the day it is tabled, technically the Commons and the Lords can annul the SI by passing a 'prayer motion', but the chance of this happening is so small it's not worth considering. Both Houses need to be sitting for the SI to be tabled, and they have up to 40 days to pass a prayer motion.

As for timing, not got much of a clue, but I hope the government tables the Statutory Instrument as soon as Parliament returns from the party conference recess, on 13 October. I think that would dovetail neatly with Universal's timetable for enabling works to start this Autumn.

 

[xtpower]

What was in the artwork was one less E ticket, 2 less C Tickets, 2 less D tickets, but considerably more B tickets, and one more show than Epic. But my point was, with what's there, the space available and taking into account them fleshing out the lands from concept so even if it is comparable to Epic's roster which is lacking even for Year 1, they don't have much left to work with. No one is really worried about Epic because we know it has 35 acres to grow, it has space to comfortably reach parity of the other two parks for attendance. From my new assessment of the park layout, there is maybe 17 acres expansion space once everything from the artwork goes in, and then if they building the parking garage they can claw back another 18-20 acres.

in 2019 Islands of adventure saw a little bit shy of 11million visitors, or basically 30K per day, and they say they want to hit 34K per day for this park

I'm assuming you're using the Core Zone layout in the planning docs as the limits to the area the Park will be housed? Because even if that only allows 17 acres of 'expansion', Universal could very well move parts of BoH over to the Lake Zone or make parking garages to add further space on top of the 17 acres.

Personally I find it hard to believe that on a plot of 240 acres, they can't even fit a Park of 110 acres or so. We know for a fact that the Park itself will be a minimum of 80 acres, I'm confident they can find another 20-30 more to match the Orlando Parks.

 

[tommyhawkins]

I'm assuming you're using the Core Zone layout in the planning docs as the limits to the area the Park will be housed? Because even if that only allows 17 acres of 'expansion', Universal could very well move parts of BoH over to the Lake Zone or make parking garages to add further space on top of the 17 acres.

Personally I find it hard to believe that on a plot of 240 acres, they can't even fit a Park of 110 acres or so. We know for a fact that the Park itself will be a minimum of 80 acres, I'm confident they can find another 20-30 more to match the Orlando Parks.

The park is 80 acres, including 17 acres of expansion pads. BOH has it's own ~28 acres. The new way is to have BOH separated from guest areas. Epic Universe is opening with a 70 acre (guest area) park with room to expand to 105 Acres.
I'm saying they are opening this park with 63 acres and room to grow to 80 acres of guest area. I am saying they can find another 20 in the parking lot. But you're talking about Orlando Parks (plural) and I've already said no single one of them has made 12.5m a year on it's own.

And as for moving stuff over to the lake zone, that will be mostly spoken for in the master plan, they wont suddenly try and find more room for stuff

 

[xtpower]

The park is 80 acres, including 17 acres of expansion pads. BOH has it's own ~28 acres. The new way is to have BOH separated from guest areas. Epic Universe is opening with a 70 acre (guest area) park with room to expand to 105 Acres.
I'm saying they are opening this park with 63 acres and room to grow to 80 acres of guest area. I am saying they can find another 20 in the parking lot. But you're talking about Orlando Parks (plural) and I've already said no single one of them has made 12.5m a year on it's own.

And as for moving stuff over to the lake zone, that will be mostly spoken for in the master plan, they wont suddenly try and find more room for stuff

Ok so we have 80 acres all told with 28 BoH, that leaves 132 acres for Citywalk, the road connecting to Manor Road, the Transport Hub and car parks. I really think they can accomodate more Park 'space' without being overly constrained. The main car park will be at worst 70 acres, leaving 60 acres for everything else.

Honestly I think we should wait until they drop new concept art before denigrating the Park as too small or not enough for the crowds expected. The current art we got is oriented the wrong way, vague in multiple places and the 'expansion pads' are far more than 17 acres. I'm also not entirely certain that the planning docs Core Zone layout is set in stone - there's no actual concrete figure on the maximum size of the Park in the Core Zone, only a hard minimum.