But it isn't something that could maybe happen.
Obviously we can't expect everyone who joins the conversation here to know everything about everything by default, but I think it's fair to ask that people familiarize themselves with the basic foundational facts of what's being discussed before constantly weighing in.
In this case, it's been discussed at length over many years that Disney can't just be "annoying" to work with. They have to, through Marvel, deal with Universal in good faith. Otherwise, we wouldn't see major, advertised enhancements like the redone Hulk, the redone Spider-Man, or the refreshed character costumes (granted, that was long ago at this point, but if I'm not mistaken it was post-Disney acquisition). In turn, Universal has to maintain certain show standards and keep their presentation of the characters consistent with the Marvel brand. But Disney can't just decide to be petty and refuse to approve whatever Universal throws at them - that would be a breach of contract, and it would likely lead to litigation (or arbitration, if that's what's specified).
It would never be as simple as Universal going "oh hey, Disney's so frustrating to work with this on this, let's just give up these rights that are worth billions of dollars." They would attempt to enforce their contractual rights, and likely prevail.
I think you missed this:
And I imagine trying to work with Disney is an enormous PITA these days, but that’s just my guess.
The Marvel thing has always been interesting. The online fans get so caught up in the horserace between Disney and Universal but I’d consider things from Universal’s perspective in a vacuum. Currently the properties they license are (I believe):
1.) Harry Potter - obviously a huge draw in every sense of the word; hallmark in their marketing, huge incremental revenue opportunities, etc.
2.) The Simpsons - as discussed, despite not being a landmark attraction it likely moves a good amount of merch and (especially) F&B. Licensing costs (and I’d imagine part of the merch) goes to Disney so on the cutting board.
3.) Transformers - one singular attraction but lots of toy opportunities that (I believe) Universal pockets all the profit from.
4.) Toon Lagoon - yeah, this one’s gone yesterday if there was a quick/easy substitution given the infrastructure.
5.) Seuss - important to the fabric of IOA in that it’s their singular kids’ area and serves as a gateway to Grinchmas (THE reason for UO’s lucrative holiday push each year). Again, merch sales and incremental Grinch revenue pocketed 100% by Universal.
6.) Men in Black - see Toon Lagoon
7.) Nintendo - looking to be a huge merch mover, but has been in the portfolio for 10 years now and is underutilized (for now…acknowledging more is coming).
Compare all of those to Marvel. Marvel is a stronger brand than all but Potter or Nintendo but lacks the F&B potential of Simpsons or the simplicity of stuff like MIB/Toon Lagoon. And while it assuredly moves merch, it’s not 100% pocketed by Universal.
Nintendo, on the other hand, has been licensed for 10 years and yielded just 3 unique attractions, 0 of which are in Orlando yet. It’s a contract struck up post-Potter and was surely more savvy in the way it split revenues for merch/food…yet is so far underutilized in the parks.
If I’m Universal, I’m not concerned about Marvel because of Disney, I’m concerned about Marvel because it uses prime real estate to sell things they can’t fully capitalize on while also representing an opportunity cost to extrapolate more out of Nintendo/other potential licenses. Sure, it may be a favorable contract to Universal, but when you’ve got a whole portfolio of IP like Pokémon just begging to be used (and fully profited off of), I could see why Marvel would be seen as something to strike.
I don’t believe Marvel is going anywhere…especially given all of the other areas of need. But I don’t think it would be THE most absurd thing Universal could do.